Much Ado About Dippy's Handicap

[JarnoV]

So Dippy plays gets 18-4 handicap in one pocket against Gabe Owen and Alex Pagulayan and probably others. Most players seem to think that they would take that spot against anyone if they had a backer. Now, it's a big spot, but I do think that many vastly overestimate their chances against players like Gabe Owen with that spot.

Based on Bob Jewett's (?) one pocket spot calculations, I'd estimate that the rating difference for 18-4 to be pretty fair game is close to 200. (9-2 is 236 and 18-4 is a lesser spot than that.)

Now, we convert this to Mike Page's examples for rating differences in 8-ball. That is, we have a player who's clearly world class, Gabe Owen, and we determine what type of player is roughly 200 points lower than that. (Here "200 points" means that for every 100 points difference, the better player is twice as likely to win a given game.)

So if Gabe Owen is 800, then 200 points lower would be 600, which Mike Page describes to like this in 8-ball:

Likely to cash in the BCA Open Division but probably won’t make it to the top 32. –may get moved to Master’s Division and then flounder –has run three-in-a-row multiple times and maybe four-in-a row a time or two

The next category is 500 which is like this:

A good local league player. Runs out first time at the table in about 10% of the games

This is not to say there aren't a whole lot of players who would beat Gabe with that spot, but that there are a whole lot MORE active pool players who would be underdogs.

Thoughts? Disagreements?

 

[8ballEinstein]

I have to agree that a lot of folks think that getting 18-4 from Gabe would be like stealing. But really, this game is no gimme unless you have many years of experience in One-Pocket, and even then, it better be quality years. The guys at the top, like Gabe, have got moves the average guy would never think of. Expecting someone like Gabe to be missing shots or making a defensive error so you can just walk up and pluck in your 4 balls is not going to happen very often.

I don't know about all the calculations you mentioned but I have seen Dippy play a few hours. Although he wouldn't be mistaken for a world beater, I was surprised to see he does know quite a few good One-Pocket moves. So it's not like he's totally helpless. The guy knows the game.