Percentages paradox --- on weaker and stronger players

[lewdo26]

This is related to the 8 ball strategy discussion, even though the example I use is 9 ball (geez, does anyone play anything else?).

Premise: The percentages change not only based on your ability, *but also that of your opponent!*

Example: A friend of mine (strongish C player) was playing Ginky a cheap $20 set even up at Amsterdam Billiards a couple of weeks back.

Ginky had *ball in hand* on this:

START(
%HQ6D0%IR8H1%PN3E9%QP1G8%Rg5M7%WP0D2%XO0E2%[g0M7%\R5C7%]Q0F8
%^P8C6
)END

He played the safety I show (nearly freezing the CB on the 9), instead of knocking the 8 and 9 in. Why???

There should be no doubt in anyone's mind that Ginky was just fooling around because he figured my friend couldn't kick... Were he playing a serious match, of course, he'd make the two balls.

BUT, what he said was simply: "I didn't like the 8 ball." I think some of you already know where I'm getting at: Ginky figured he's getting ball in hand the next shot because he's playing a weak player... why should he even go through the trouble of stretching, or using the bridge, or shooting left handed on a frozen 8 if he can place it in a better location?

Again, Ginky wouldn't even joke about doing the same thing against an accomplished kicker, but the fact that his opponent couldn't kick, gave 'em the liberty to play the safe in the diagram.

By the way, my friend kicked the 8 ball in and made a tough 9 to win the rack. HUGE mistake. He didn't get the chance to KICK again until the set was dead and buried.

P.S.: My example is partially in jest since it wasn't played in all seriousness. But it is an entertaining illustration, I think, of how the game changes depending on who the opponent is.

 

[pete lafond]

about 6 yrs ago or so I played in a 8 ball league w/friends. I was a locked 10 HC and my opponent was a 7. Reason to believe I could paly some safe and easily get out afterwords.

I am stripes and he is solids. The guy kicked in the 5 and then kicked in the 6 leaving an easy 8. Anyway, your right about percentages but as with percentages they are never 100.

See below image;

I screwed up in the 8 as it was closer to the 5 to the point that he could have easily hit the 8 because they were so close. The 8 ended up where it is in the diagraph after the 5 kick. The point is that he made to tough kicks and not likely ones either.

 

[ShootingArts]

I agree

I agree with both the percentages changing with the opponent and that you will get burned playing games sometimes. When I gambled a lot I often broke a run to play a strong safety without it being obvious that I had done so. It worked over 90% of the time I would guess because this is safeties I had the option of choosing when to play, not a "must try" safety. Once in awhile I would blow the safety and occasionally the opponent would make what I considered a low percentage or even basically no percentage shot.

The safest thing is to never let the other player back on the table however there are usually more dollars to be had if the other player is never quite sure if you are good or lucky.

Hu