Sorry for the long post....Here's the math....
If the force and distance is the same with both cues (like with a robot like Iron Willie or Meucci's Myth Destroyer), the light cue will win. See the math exercise below.
(But, if the human arm "maxes out" at a top speed regardless of force, then the heavy cue might win, depending on its extra energy relative to its less efficient coefficient of restitution. I don't know if the human arm maxes out on speed.)
Here is the math that I posted almost a year ago on the Billiards Digest CCB forum:
For the purpose of this analysis I will assume that
* The collision is perfectly elastic (energy and momentum will be conserved in the post collision motion of the stick and ball).
* The same shooter exerts a constant force (300 Newtons, about 67.4 lbs) over a 6 inch forward swing to impact. (The actual force and swing distance are not important here so long as they are the same for both cues.)
* The "light" stick weighs 18oz, the "heavy" stick weighs 21oz, and the cue ball weighs 6 oz.
* The stick and ball are free bodies in space. The the stick is accellerated to hit a ball that is initially at rest, and the axis and path of the stick is alligned with the center of the ball. (I know real balls and sticks are not free bodies in space, but this assumption simplifies everything without changing the outcome. I am deliberately ignoring arm mass, so the calculated numbers will be inaccurate, but the winner will be the same.)
The trick is to find the post collision speeds of the ball and stick so that energy and momentum are conserved. We have a system of two equations and two unknowns, so it can be solved with some hairy algebra. I used the Excel Solver routine because it was easier and I am LAZY.
A constant force of 300N applied over 6 inches will accelerate an 18oz (0.5103kg) stick to a speed of 13.38614 m/s (29.94mph). The pre-collision momentum of the stick is 6.830947 kg-m/s, and the kinetic energy is 45.72J. Conserving energy and momentum, the post collision speed of the stick is 6.69307m/s (14.97mph) and the post collision speed of the ball is 20.07m/s (44.92mph).
A constant force of 300N applied over 6 inches will accellerate a 21oz (0.5953kg) stick to a speed of 12.39368m/s (27.72mph). The pre-collision momentum of the stick is 7.377956 kg-m/s, (NOTE: MORE MOMENTUM THAN THE LIGHTER CUE) and the kinetic energy is 45.72 J. NOTE: THIS IS THE SAME KINETIC ENERGY AS THE LIGHT CUE. Conserving energy and momentum, the post collision speed of the stick is 6.885376m/s (15.40mph) and the post collision speed of the ball is 19.27905m/s (43.13mph).
DRUM ROLL and TRUMPET FANFARE:::::::::::::
Admittedly ignoring arm mass, the cue ball has - at most - 4.1% more speed and 8.5% more energy when struck by a LIGHTER (18oz) stick than when it is struck by a HEAVIER (21oz) stick, all other things being equal. A 15% reduction in weight results in no more than 4% more speed.
This is true - NOT because the lighter stick moves faster - but because the lighter stick transfers more energy to an object that is more similar in mass. Coefficient of restitution.
In fact, I demonstrated with the same spreadsheet that, as the mass of the two colliding objects gets more and more equal, more and more of the energy of the first object is transfered to the second object. When the mass difference is zero, the energy transfer is 100%.
We can see this principle on the pool table. A dead-stratight stun shot transfers nearly 100% of the cue ball energy to the object ball. (It is ironic that a clue to the answer has been in front of us all the time.)
In this case, physics CONFIRMS anecdotal observation.
I suppose we should all go out and buy 6oz cue sticks!!! (That's meant to be a joke...)