Shot Aptitude: A New Pool Game Metric (Sabermetric)

PoolStats

PoolStats

Pool Stats LLC
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http://poolst.at/sa

We are proud to announce the release of a new pool metric (sabermetric): Shot Aptitude. It measures a player’s ability in decisive action and execution in shooting the ball. It takes in the factors of, time to shoot, shot difficulty, miss or made or foul or defense.

The main contributor to this metric is time to shoot. The quicker you decide your shots and execute them to perfection the higher your Shot Aptitude will be. Think of Josh Filler, who rarely takes a whole 60 seconds on a complex shot. His ability to decide, and decide quickly factors into this equation.

A player gets awarded a set of points for shooting faster and making the ball, weighted according to how difficult the shot was (shot probability) along with other weight factors. When a player takes a long time to decide their shot and ends up missing the pot, this is factored inversely proportional to a fast shooter making the ball. Again it is weighted inversely for shot difficulty. A foul is weight heavier than a missed shot as they occur less often and are a greater factor in shot ineptitude. Now, we understand that some fouls are forced, but this all figures into the equation as it levels off for all players committing fouls or otherwise not.

As said earlier, the dominating factor of this metric, is time to shoot while weighting the equation for the various occurrences at the table. Aptitude is an inherent ability, therefore we feel that if a player has the ability to think and execute quickly they should be awarded a higher figure than a player that takes their time on the shot while still executing it. It makes sense to us. Our hopes are to refine this metric further down the line, but we think for the first run, it is an excellent gauge at a player’s inherent ability at shooting and making shots, while fouling or missing less and playing defense often.

Note:
We are only publishing the Shot Aptitude stats for players that have more than 120 data points. See the Full PR for confidence levels related to number of data points.

Full PR:
https://poolstats.co/shot-aptitude-a-new-pool-game-sabermetric/

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I really liked the idea and hope it is a benefit to many. For me, I am put off by the weight being given to time between shots. Josh Filler was given as an example, but this means some of the greatest players in history including Alex, Ralf, Varner, and many others wouldn't score as well as players that play levels below but play fast and loose. In other words, it is biased based on playing style.

The only measure I'm interested in is effectiveness at the table and in competition. That is the true test. If there was a way to measure my performance to help me identify my relative leaks I would be all in. For example, if it diagnosed that I was stronger than my skill level in certain areas, but identified where I make more mistakes than the average of my skill level, this could be a strong diagnostic tool. But I'm not interested in speeding up and playing worse to game a score that isn't tethered to competitive production.

Again, I like the contributions being made, I find them interesting, and hope they are a benefit to many players. Thank you.
 
I get what Tin Man is saying... real good points!

I remember watching those guys play speed pool on ESPN back in the 90's, can't remember a single one of their names though.. I do remember a tall spastic red headed fella that moved like wild fire around the table, I guess that's how you play that game though.
 
8cree said:
I get what Tin Man is saying... real good points!

I remember watching those guys play speed pool on ESPN back in the 90's, can't remember a single one of their names though.. I do remember a tall spastic red headed fella that moved like wild fire around the table, I guess that's how you play that game though.
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I forgot about this as I only saw a few, but I do remember someone playing so fast he was accidentally banging his stick. The guy never missed, I think the dry break was his only soft spot.

Does the metric take into account the shot clock? If your reference is speed, it would have to be determined by an influence of a time constraining environment.

All people play different when they're on the clock, but if you're not on the clock that style of play is obviously different too, so can you merge them both accurately?
 
NathanDetroit said:
Sabermetrics?

Society for American Baseball Research has little to do with pool.
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George William James (born October 5, 1949) is an American baseball writer, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books devoted to baseball history and statistics. His approach, which he termed sabermetrics in reference to the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR),[1] scientifically analyzes and studies baseball, often through the use of statistical data, in an attempt to determine why teams win and lose.
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Sabermetrics is advanced data measuring of the game. Sure the term was coined for baseball, however, we are adapting Bill James, Ken Pom, and other sports data analysts to the game of pool.
 
Tin Man said:
I really liked the idea and hope it is a benefit to many. For me, I am put off by the weight being given to time between shots. Josh Filler was given as an example, but this means some of the greatest players in history including Alex, Ralf, Varner, and many others wouldn't score as well as players that play levels below but play fast and loose. In other words, it is biased based on playing style.
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I agree. Ralf Souquet is underrated in Shot Aptitude, and thats because he uses the whole clock. Granted he is an outstanding player, among the top ever, his inherent ability and not as strong as others if you consider the decisiveness a Melling or a Filler bring to the table.

If you miss a shot while taking a long time to shoot, that is scored lower than missing a ball when you decided rather quickly. Because you had more time to prepare and analyze your situation and ended up missing (or fouling) you are scored lower. Likewise, if you make difficult shots in short amount of time, that measures your, I hate to say it, but innate, ability at calculating the angles, velocity and trajectories.


The only measure I'm interested in is effectiveness at the table and in competition. That is the true test. If there was a way to measure my performance to help me identify my relative leaks I would be all in. For example, if it diagnosed that I was stronger than my skill level in certain areas, but identified where I make more mistakes than the average of my skill level, this could be a strong diagnostic tool. But I'm not interested in speeding up and playing worse to game a score that isn't tethered to competitive production.
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We do have stats that measure effectiveness, but there is always more than one component to measuring a player's ability. Take for instance:

Defensive Success Rate (DSR)
http://poolst.at/dsr

This measures your effectiveness while in defense/safe play.

Another effectiveness would be Shooting Percent, or
Clutch Shooting Percent
http://poolst.at/csp.

Yet another metric for effectiveness would be
Plus / Minus (+/-)
http://poolst.at/pm.

This is the overall sum of your balls left on the table after a loss (-) and the balls your opponents leave on the table after you win (+). This a quantitative metric and is a strict figure. The highest cleans up the best.

Also, in the pipeline, along the lines that you want to see is a stat I've devised called Nisus. Which if you look-up the definition of the word it is: An effortful attempt to attain a goal. In this case, the goal would be victory.

Our goal is to build a comprehensive set of standard metrics, advanced metrics (sabmermetrics), and predictive metrics for the game of pool, along with your routine stats, such as Plus / Minus, Shooting Percent, No. of Fouls and so on and so forth.


Again, I like the contributions being made, I find them interesting, and hope they are a benefit to many players. Thank you.
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Your love is much appreciated. Keep tuned for much more down the road as we collect stats daily.
 
Cron said:
I forgot about this as I only saw a few, but I do remember someone playing so fast he was accidentally banging his stick. The guy never missed, I think the dry break was his only soft spot.

Does the metric take into account the shot clock? If your reference is speed, it would have to be determined by an influence of a time constraining environment.

All people play different when they're on the clock, but if you're not on the clock that style of play is obviously different too, so can you merge them both accurately?
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By default, the matches we have recorded all had a 30 or 40 second shot clock with one extension and a 60 second shot clock on the shot after the break, save for one match. The app has a shot clock built-in to it, so it does account for the time it takes. Inversely proportional for missed shots as opposed to made shots or defensive shots. Whether you like it or not, you're always on the clock. That is to say, there will be some time it takes to make a shot and the shot thereafter. That is all weighted accordingly.

But to answer your question more precisely, the algorithm for Shot Aptitude doesn't account for shots taking 0 seconds, which is to say you never started the shot clock. Per your suggestion, I could adjust the metric to handle 0 second or - "off the clock" - shooting aptitude.

I'll look into it. Thanks for your suggestion.
 
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As my colleague pointed out to me in discussing the issues some people may raise about Shot Aptitude, consider the following analogous comparison of two basketball players: One player can be passed the ball, pull-up, shoot and drain the 3-point shot, whereas the other player needs to dribble it first, square his feet, shoot and drain the 3-point shot. The first player has a higher aptitude for shooting the three than the second player.

It illustrates the confidence a player has under the shot-clock and their inherent ability to perform decisively and effectively.

Kudos to Matt Burdette for the analogy.
 
This is known as "weighing the pig".

Gathering, managing and analyzing data that has no real value.

Time to shoot has almost no bearing on someones skills, knowledge or abilities in pool.

Personally, I despise slow players. But I also realize that, for most of them, it's more indicative of their personality than it is their pool skills.

IOW, they're freakin' slow at everything.


(BTW, the bball analogy doesn't work. It's a false equivalence)
 
VonRhett said:
This is known as "weighing the pig".

Gathering, managing and analyzing data that has no real value.

Time to shoot has almost no bearing on someones skills, knowledge or abilities in pool.

Personally, I despise slow players. But I also realize that, for most of them, it's more indicative of their personality than it is their pool skills.

IOW, they're freakin' slow at everything.


(BTW, the bball analogy doesn't work. It's a false equivalence)
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Gauging performance under a shot-clock is of no real value? Gauging how quickly and effectively one acts is of no real value?

The ability to act effectively and decisively is an inherent ability, i.e., aptitude.

One way to use this stat is that if you take a long time to shoot the ball and miss or foul, your aptitude will be lower. One possible solution is increasing your speed during shot selection, i.e., not overthinking the shot, and making the shot will increase your aptitude. Another obvious solution to increasing your aptitude is not fouling, not missing or playing defense more often. Using this metric can alter how you play your game for better or for worse.

Stats such as WAR were heavily criticized for a long time until people found value in using it. We feel the same way about the stats we devise up. Some will be of use, others may not.

I'd imagine that there will be naysayers of stats that analyze various aspects of the game, but we conclude this stat views a component of the game, whether you are a fan of the shot-clock or not, accurately.
 
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I’m glad I’m older because now I can honestly say that I have no idea what people are even talking about anymore.

For 51 years I’ve taken a stick and hit a ball into a hole.
 
Time is the major player in the formulae, but not the only factor.

The formulas are ready for print and we will be publishing them in the coming weeks so people can better understand how this metric is calculated.
 
But what is it for?
Is it a filler-o-meter?

I realize intricate facts have become useful in managing baseball decisions
And if you have found ways to incorporate these approaches into pool, great
But how will these facts help me?
 
markjames said:
Is it a filler-o-meter?
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:rotflmao1:
Anyone can be at the top.

markjames said:
I realize intricate facts have become useful in managing baseball decisions
And if you have found ways to incorporate these approaches into pool, great
But how will these facts help me?
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Most mathematical/scientific innovations and statistics don't find practical use at the start and can take years to achieve maturity. It's only until someone realizes what they can benefit from it that it becomes a socialized norm.

You use pool stats as a gauge of your ability. We don't all need to become Filler's in aptitude, but increasing your aptitude will improve your game and conversely as well.

How does one increase their shot aptitude and how will it help you?

  1. Make your shots.
  2. If you're going to miss, miss on difficult shots, not easy ones.
  3. If you are overthinking your game and taking too long to decide, adjust yourself to making better quicker decisions.
  4. Play more and better defense.
  5. Watch your foul game. Sometimes we get forced to foul, but other times it's on us.
  6. Get used to playing with a shot-clock to speed up your thought process and decision making abilities.
  7. If you are making harder shots, but taking too long to execute, your shot aptitude will drop slightly. Instead, try having better cue ball placement so the next shot is easier and faster.

That list isn't comprehensive, but, do these things and your shot aptitude will increase. Use shot aptitude as a guide not as a ranking, as it is seen currently.

This is what I can think of so far. Maybe someone in the near future will come along and find a better use for it. As for now, we are trying to build a set of metrics we find interesting and that illustrates a player's performance. Like I said earlier, there may be no practical use to some of the metrics we conjure up, but they do however shed light on the various components of the game of pool.
 
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markjames said:
But what is it for?
I realize intricate facts have become useful in managing baseball decisions
And if you have found ways to incorporate these approaches into pool, great
But how will these facts help me?
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These are good questions btw. It's better to ask where the benefit is rather than to dismiss new ideas without any thought put in first.

Thank you.
 
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PoolStats said:
These are good questions btw. It's better to ask where the benefit is than to dismiss new ideas without any thought put in first.

Thank you.
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Will you also be keeping track of Red Bull consumption as it relates how fast a player moves around the table and thinks about the shot?

I think Red Bull should be banned from pool. How about you?
 
RiverCity said:
Will you also be keeping track of Red Bull consumption as it relates how fast a player moves around the table and thinks about the shot?

I think Red Bull should be banned from pool. How about you?
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Definitely ban Red Bull, but keep amphetamines and possibly marijuana.
 
Oh man thank you poolstats for taking the time to answer some
Of my questions. You guys seem like you are onto something good,
I hope so. I wish you all the best in the world of pool.

I can't help but think this will be a great time for us in the coming year
Now that all the sports-soccer, nfl, nba, mlb, nhl
Are all on the same level of pool-NOWHERE!
 
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