Snookerbacker

[church66]

Snookerbacker Tweet .

⛰ Erasmus Montanus ⛰
@moodymoomooh
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7h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
Collision symbol What a snooker day Collision symbol
Gary The No-Trash Cougar
@notrashcougar
·
7h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
Despite being an absolute, bonafide mentalist.
Micky Ogden
@RamrodStuds
·
7h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
Pretty much as I'd predicted, except Ronnie won.
Marlon Solomon
@supergutman
·
7h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
Yeah, bellend though.
Skippy
@Exsnookerpro
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6h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
I agree with your first two sentences.
miami cb
@biddleo1
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6h
TST is the goat
Craig Rolph
@CraigRolph
·
5h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
The best snooker player ever by a mile, and Ronnie would agree, is Mr Stephen Hendry.
Flag of BelgiumBuffaloDDRFlag of Belgium
@buffalo_ddr
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26m
Replying to
@snookerbacker
Bang on backer
Callum Somers
@Somers_10
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7h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
Poor interview from
@markjesterselby
. Sounded like sour grapes at the end. Disrespectful for bashing them around when in a snooker? Can only favour Selby and helped him wins a couple of frames
Daniel Karmy
@dank6710
·
7h
No, Selby was spot on. For all Ronnie said about Joe Davis...the great man would have been disgusted by that sort of behaviour. No other sportsman who openly slagged off his fellow professionals, or took the piss out of his opponent playing that way, would get away with it..

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker Tweet .

https://twitter.com/snookerbacker/status/1294368766407708672


Ed
@Ed03579699
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5h
Hendry
Kevin
@Kmet90
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6h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
@Paul94Metcalfe
Brian Rigney
@BrianR199
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6h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
and
@RisquePat
@1paulmcel
Paul McElroy Blocked by Donnelly, Carey, Cowan! Face with tears of joy
@1paulmcel
·
6h
Sums up Ronnie. A snooker genius doesn't have to justify himself. Ok there's etiquette and protocol to follow but an empty Crucible suits Ronnie funny enough even though he's done in with a capacity crowd before.
@ronnieo147
#Snookerworldchampionships
3 more replies
Gianni
@giannimosquito
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6h
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@snookerbacker
@stephencn90
LOL
Matthew Lean
@Lenoitz
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5h
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@snookerbacker
@ian__powell
Stephen Finn
@ScarFinn79
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4h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
@jkmolly39
Rolling on the floor laughingRolling on the floor laughing
MGB1975
@mgb75
·
6h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
Absolute quality. Can’t stand it when people criticise Ronnie. He has carried the game on his shoulders for 20 years. He has delivered unbelievable entertainment, on and off the baize throughout his career. Genius and fallibility are two sides of the same coin Thumbs upSlightly smiling face
Michelle B
@shellbennett
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5h
There is a fine line between genius and madness
1 more reply
stephen
@astephenrhodes
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8h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
@StephenCorkin1

@jackcoe209
jack coe
@jackcoe209
·
8h
unreal hahhahaha
Stephenbyrne7
@Stephenbyrne73
·
4h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
and
@GerDodrill11
@ianfitz1992
Stephenbyrne7
@Stephenbyrne73
·
4h
Didn't mean to tag u ger sorry
The Mean Guy
@DanUmmati
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8h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
Lmfao

 

[church66]

http://www.snookerbacker.com/

Snookerbacker
August 15, 2020
World Championship Final – O’Sullivan aims for sixth World Crown
Filed under: Snooker News — snookerbacker @ 10:17 am
We are running out of superlatives, Ronnie O’Sullivan last night produced one of the most unlikely comebacks of recent years and played snooker from the Gods to pip a very upset Mark Selby to the post and reach the final, where he’ll take on Kyren Wilson who emerged battered and bruised from the most incredible deciding frame of snooker The Crucible, or for that matter any venue, has ever witnessed.



It’s a huge weekend for both players, Kyren was clearly overwhelmed to get through and faces the match of his life against a seemingly unstoppable Rocket aiming to put his name on the trophy for the sixth time, that people say that’s a massive underachievement on his part speak volumes of his contribution to the sport for the best part of three decades.

I’m not going to be having a bet, I hardly ever do on the final, but I’d be surprised if Ronnie lost now, even with the 300 or so looking on as the restrictions are lifted once more for the climax of what’s been a great tournament for those of us glued to it at home. I think the strangest tournament in our lifetimes will probably end up being won by the strangest snooker player of them all, let’s just hope they put on a show.

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker Tweet .

https://twitter.com/snookerbacker/status/1294744173854240769

Quote .

"I've done some detailed research and the red line is when Ronnie looks arsed, the black line is when he wins trophies. Not sure what the other line is but it's backed up with data."

The graphics look like PM Boris 'Bonkers' Johnsons daily updates on the Corona Virus via UK MSM UK outlets . :grin-square:

 

[church66]

http://www.snookerbacker.com/

Snookerbacker
August 18, 2020
It’s The World Seniors! The Curse is Back.
Filed under: Snooker Betting Snooker News — snookerbacker @ 8:18 pm

Jimmy’s back. But can he beat this version of The Curse? Don’t be silly.

OK, I’ll be the first to admit that when all the Snooker Legends stuff started off I just thought it was a bit of a pantomime money spinner for those at the end of their careers who couldn’t hit a bull’s arse with a shovel anymore but were still mildly recognisable to nursing home residents.

But as regular readers know, I’m always happy to admit when I’m wrong.

Because now despite the UK Government ensuring that a lot of said nursing home residents have gone to the Great Billiard Hall in the Sky prematurely these past few months, those who are left can this week join the rest of us in enjoying the World Seniors Championship from The Crucible on the Red Button on the BBC (Channel 981 on Sky – send me the other quick links for the ones who still press the Red Button).

This is a testament to how strong this initial idea by Jason Francis to save a few skint and failing greats from obscurity has led to an excellent standard of play in qualifying events all over the world.

Jimmy White won it last year at The Crucible (that sentence in itself should have your attention), so this also immediately arouses the interest of The Snooker Gods, whose radar is always alerted at the phrase ‘First time Crucible winner defending the title’.

Rumour has it that The Gods, fresh from their absolute hatchet job on Judd, made a U-Turn at Cloud 147 on their way to the annual Curse Celebration break in Kiev to meet a few mates on hearing the news this was going ahead and was being covered by the BBC.

Sorry Jimmy, it’s kind of a rule. Nothing personal.

Other notable or recognisable names taking part are Ken Doherty, Dennis Taylor, Bolton Stud Tony ‘The Shagger’ Knowles, Joe Johnson, Nigel Bond and Darren Morgan, who famously, at least to me and my mates, once turned up in a red sports car at Pontins, Prestatyn with the roof down and the registration ‘H1 BABE5’.

Talking of Pontins, there’s some other jammy Scottish player there called Stephen Hendry who spawned a yellow against me on his way to a deciding frame victory in 1983 in the juniors. But I don’t like talking about it and wish him all the best in his future career.

The winner may come from that crop, in particular Bond who I’d say is a half decent bet to lift the trophy. But you also have to factor in the likes of Peter Lines, Michael Judge and former winner Aaron Canavan who faces Leo Fernandez who played very well at Q School recently into your calculations.

There won’t be a crowd in The Crucible this time but it’s a good chance for those of us nursing a World Championship comedown to go back to the venue virtually and watch a bit of action. Most of the bookies have odds on both the outrights and the matches. Obviously don’t go mad as these are very short matches, but very TV friendly so if you have a few quid you can afford to lose, have a little go on the recommended acca below.

Recommended First Round Bet: Doherty to beat Goggins, Canavan to beat Fernandez, Morgan to beat Wallace, Filtness to beat Cooper, Bond to beat Hendry pays around 12/1 in most places.

Recommended Outright: Nigel Bond to win the World Seniors (9/2 generally). Each Way on Gary Filtness at 100/1.

You can view the full draw for the World Seniors here.

BBC Coverage
Wednesday, 19 August
13:00-16:00 & 19:00-22:00 – BBC Red Button, BBC Sport online, BBC iPlayer

Thursday, 20 August
13:00-16:00 & 19:00-22:00 – BBC Red Button, BBC Sport online, BBC iPlayer

Friday, 21 August
13:00-16:00 & 19:00-22:00 – BBC Red Button, BBC Sport online, BBC iPlayer

Saturday, 22 August
12:00-15:00 & 19:00-22:00 – BBC Red Button, BBC Sport online, BBC iPlayer

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker Tweet .

https://twitter.com/snookerbacker/status/1296194607110381568 :

Quote .

"
snookerbacker Speaking head in silhouette
@snookerbacker
If anyone does a live Twitter comms until the end tonight at the snooker. You deserve every follow and your Bus Fare Home for life. BBC Red Button for addicts. I'm done...
GIF
10:17 PM · Aug 19, 2020·Twitter for Android
10
Likes
Barry McCann
@Bazzinho9
·
2h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
I was going to but I'm going out at 4pm tomorrow
Daniel Simson
@MrTTraces
·
2h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
An hour plus and still only in frame 2. One for the purists.
Philip Murphy
@PhilipMurphy67
·
2h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
I might do just because I want followers, I put YouTube on too so I am not bored.
Steve Haydon
@Steve_Haydon
·
1h
Replying to
@snookerbacker
Two frames was enough, I’m afraid...
twister
@mattdevwegs
·
45m
Replying to
@snookerbacker
poor rob walker will be sleeping at the crucible at this rate."

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker : http://www.snookerbacker.com/​

January 7, 2021​

In Conversation with…..Shaun Murphy Part 1 .​

Filed under:

• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 7:05 pm

Don’t mention the yellow
My self-enforced rest from blogging has come to an end and that can only mean one thing, we have a major event coming up and one of the top boys on tour has agreed to have a natter with me about that and whatever else crops up. This time I caught up with the one and only Shaun Murphy to ask him about lockdown, how snooker is or isn’t helping, crowdless snooker, how he sees the future of the sport, what wakes him up at night and his own personal battles.
SB: Alright Shaun, long time no speak.
SM: I know! It’s been a while since we put the world to rights hasn’t it? We were going to take over the world at one point.
SB: They wouldn’t be playing in Milton Keynes if we’d have got to grips with it, I’m thinking Barbados Masters and that’s just the amateurs.
SM: Exactly, the world according to Shaun and SB.
SB: Anyway, how’s lockdown treating you?
SM: To be honest SB, as a bloke I’ve really struggled with it. The last ten months have been the hardest of my life. I’m a very social person, I like mixing with people and interacting, I’m a bit of a show off…
SB: Come come Mr Murphy surely not…
SM: Oh, slip of the tongue, a show off? Me? No I’m not having that. Anyway yes, it’s been very hard, I miss celebrating wins with friends, I miss the crowds, everything. I’ve also lost some very dear friends and family and I haven’t been able to hug them before they’ve gone, it’s just been awful. Everyone has had their own personal battles, then we get a bit of hope and then we’re back to square one both over there and here in Ireland.
SB: Has snooker helped? Has it been a friend or a foe or a bit of both?
SM: Errm, well, I’d have hoped it would help, but it hasn’t really. Every time you walk out in front of nobody it reminds you of what is going on, I mean we’re playing the German Masters in Milton Keynes, it’s just weird.
SB: It must be, from playing in front of hundreds in arenas and sometimes millions at home, you still have the TV audience of course but from a viewer perspective I’ve found it a bit samey, how is it as a player?
SM: Yes, it does feel like that, though I think the promoters at Matchroom and World Snooker Tour have done an amazing job and deserve massive credit for their hard work. But as a performer, I’ve found it very very difficult, starting at the World Championship walking out there to nobody, no buzz, you even miss feeling sick in your stomach with nerves behind the scenes just before your match. I also think it’s a massive leveller. You’re seeing players performing to levels they never have before and that has to be down to the lack of a crowd.
SB: The young Chinese players being an example?
SM: Yes amongst others definitely. I mean a few players I’ve played this season, you put them in an arena in front of 1000 people and they don’t play like that, or anything like that. On the flip side, for a player like me who wants the big crowds it probably has a negative effect but as it shows no sign of changing I need to get used to it and adapt the best I can. I mean it’s down to me as you are seeing Trump and Robertson just getting on with it, they are starting to get that aura about them that O’Sullivan, Hendry and Davis had, most players who play them now are beaten before they play.
SB: Moving on to next week and given what we’ve talked about, would you have preferred it to have been delayed a bit and perhaps given a chance of an audience?
SM: I’ve agonised about this, but I think we’re going to see this set up now for the rest of the season. If there is any type of crowd allowed at The Crucible I think we have to see this as a massive bonus. But hey, we have to go to work. The truth of the matter is that in snooker, unlike most other top sports, most of the tour live hand to mouth and if the money isn’t coming in it spells trouble. Most snooker players don’t have the luxury of saying let’s have a couple of months off, that’s the reality of life as a snooker player, unpaid leave isn’t a great thing.
SB: I suppose there are also a couple of other things on the horizon in terms of how the Chinese events are going to evolve in the future and the upcoming review of bookmaker sponsorship, is snooker entering a turbulent time, a minor crisis even?
SM: I think we’re certainly entering a time where we’ve had an incredible ten years for snooker in terms of earning potential and global reach under Barry. It does remind me of when the tobacco sponsorship ban was coming in, snooker was given a heads up and also even given exemption for five years but the people running the game then didn’t act to secure alternative sponsors and look what happened. It’s only a matter of time until it happens with gaming companies and I worry not enough is being done to prepare for this, I was often frustrated when I raised this during my time on the board and I seemed to always be told it was under control, I hope it is is all I can say.

 

[church66]

January 7, 2021 : http://www.snookerbacker.com/​

In Conversation with…..Shaun Murphy Part 2 .​

Filed under:

• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 7:05 pm

SB: At the risk of this chat ending prematurely, I asked people on Twitter for some questions, amazingly the vast majority of them were polite.
SM: Laughs, Blimey, times have changed!
SB: Firstly, there is a lot of interest in your ‘Snooker’s Biggest Loser’ weight loss challenge with MC Phil Seymour and one tweeter wants to know what diet and regime you are following?
SM: As you know SB, if there is a fad diet around, I’ve probably had a go at it and failed miserably. So, I’m following a strict calorie control intake and really watching my numbers, I’m not really denying myself anything…
SB: Hang on Shaun, I think I may have spotted a flaw in your plan there. I might have a bet on Phil.
SM: Laughs, Oh no, I’m going to fail miserably again aren’t I? To be serious, I’ve felt the weight creeping up again and I said to myself come the new year I’m going to do something about it, new year, new me, like everyone says. Anyway, a couple of weeks ago I did a live Instagram chat with Stephen Hendry and a question came in to me that asked why I hadn’t had as successful a career as I should have had and I thought, hang on a minute, I think I’ve had a successful career, so it took me aback a bit.
SB: You’ve got one of those little crowns on your waistcoat, that must say something?
SM: It must do, not sure what but it must do. Anyway, I had a think about it and I thought that perhaps he was right and that my weight has always been a big issue that has hindered my career. I get stick and sometimes very personal insults about it on social media and that affects the way I think, so I kind of wish I’d thought like that a few years ago as once I sort that part of my life out I think I can really turn a corner.
SB: I think the question was probably coming from a good place just wondering why given your talent you haven’t won more.
SM: Yes, but it’s true to say that I should have so I’m taking that as a further motivation for Phil and I’s challenge. If someone says to me, why is it I haven’t won more I have to look at the other top players who are winning regularly and the difference between them and me is clear.
SB: Another cheery question from Twitter now, worst points of your career that still haunt you to this day?
SM: Without a doubt, the worst moment of my career was when I was world champion, which I know sounds odd, but it’s when I lost it to Peter Ebdon in the quarter final the following year when I thought I had a great chance of retaining it, I took a while to get over that. Other than that the final in 2015 sticks out, to get that close and lose was horrible, there was a yellow I missed…
SB: Moving on to a lighter note.
SM: I sometimes wake up thinking about that yellow..
SB: I’m sorry I asked you this question now.
SM: I thought I’d got over it SB.
SB: Moving swiftly on, a final question from a mutual friend of ours Bianca, who asks who you’d like to see take over snooker when Barry retires? And you can’t say yourself.
SM: Well the time will come soon, how do you replace a one-off? As things stand it will obviously fall to his son Eddie and you’d be a brave person to question his business acumen and skills as a promoter.
SB: He might get you all doing pre-match interviews where it gets a bit tasty?
SM: Might not be a bad thing SB. You know what I will say on that I would say that as snooker’s biggest asset is the players, collectively we could do a lot more to promote snooker in a positive way, look at the way boxers promote fights to sell tickets, obviously snooker is different, but I think more could be done by all players to get people talking. So back to the question, I think you’d have to look very hard to find a better candidate than Eddie, but does he have that passion for snooker his dad has? Probably not. It would be interesting to see how someone would do who doesn’t have a previous affiliation with snooker but has a proven commercial track record, but how do you follow Barry? I’m not sure you can, he’s one of a kind.
SB: He’s definitely that, would you fancy a crack yourself when you hang the cue up?
SM: Players taking over commercial arms of sport can’t and never does end well, I’d like to be part of snooker in the future, possibly within the WPBSA if I got the chance but World Snooker Tour needs people with other skills to mine.
SB: One last one from me, are you going to win next week as I fancy a bet?
SM: I’ll be trying my best, I’ve been practising hard and playing really well. I just keep running into super-heroes playing out of their skin, so if I can avoid them I’m in with a chance.
SB: One final late question, some bloke called Mark Allen asks, would you still play that yellow with check side?
SB: Shaun?
SB: Shaun……..
You can sponsor Shaun and Phils Snooker’s Biggest Loser charities by clicking here

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker : http://www.snookerbacker.com/​

January 9, 2021​

The Masters Preview​

Filed under:

• Snooker Betting
• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 2:21 pm

Things are a bit quieter this year
Sunday sees the start of snooker’s biggest and most prestigious non-ranking event The Masters, this year sponsored by the familiar name of Betfred and coming to you live from the home of snooker (checks notes) errmm, Milton Keynes.
Yes, hand on heart it’s not what any of us wanted but we now seem to be resigned to the rest of the season, at least up to The Crucible, being staged at this venue. I suppose we should be thankful of any action at all and it’s fingers crossed that we manage to emerge in a week’s time with a champion and that we get to see all the matches as planned.
It would be disingenuous of me to write this up as a betting preview. I’ve only really been dipping in and out of the snooker since Sheffield and only got really into the latter stages of the UK.
I will of course watch all of this as it would be silly not to given it’s prestige but I can only really make a few observations rather than recommend any bets, but if you take my pointers at face value, agree with them and keep them as your betting principles, hopefully you won’t go far wrong.
Stating the obvious, this is not a ‘normal’ Masters
If this was being held at Ally Pally in front of a vast crowd, on current form I’d say there would be two main contenders, those being Judd Trump and Neil Robertson, with a further six players who could win it. With the levelling of the playing field and the lack of the vast sometimes very vocal crowd, you could probably make a case to a greater or lesser extent for all of them. Wouldn’t it be ironic if say Jack Lisowski or Dave Gilbert won this before winning a ranking title? You might also want to take note that of the main contenders John Higgins, Mark Selby and Stuart Bingham have been playing here all last week, might they have a slight advantage in terms of match sharpness?
Expect big breaks
One of the key features of snooker this season at Milton Keynes has been big breaks and indeed maximum breaks, Stuart Bingham being the latest to have one last week. The overs on the century markets are worth a look and of course the obligatory ‘century in every match’ bet (taken at 18/1 with Ladbrokes, now 12/1) is always a source of entertainment and future psychological problems. But if it doesn’t happen this year I’d argue it never will. Ton bet arch enemy Barry Hawkins isn’t playing in this either so that’s an added plus (sorry Basil).
The great leveller
The thing about the top snooker players is that in practice there is very little between any of them in terms of their snooker ability. What seperates the very best is their temperament and bottle and as discussed already, to some extent the pressure isn’t there this year which to me means there might be a few more than normal close matches, so again, looking at the ‘over 9.5 frames’ betting and selecting a few multiples in the first round may reap rewards, that way you’re also not having to nail your prediction to a player winning.
The big names are still lifting the silverware
It’s true we have seen some players this season producing snooker we haven’t seen from them before and causing some eyebrow raising results. But it’s still the top boys getting their hands on the trophies. I think there are a handful of players here who could produce early shocks but once realisation hits of what they might be about to achieve they’ll not have the goods to cross the finish line. So I wouldn’t be looking at backing anyone outside the usual suspects in the outrights, but we might see a ‘surprise’ name make the semi finals after a couple of corking wins.
Anyway, here’s the draw and the format and lets hope they get through it, on this occasion it’s definitely good to be negative.
The above was written before the withdrawals of Judd Trump and Jack Lisowski due to positive COVID tests, the replacement players are listed below. Let’s hope there aren’t any more….
Stuart Bingham v Thepchaiya Un-Nooh (Monday January 11th at 1pm)
Shaun Murphy v Mark Williams (Monday January 11th at 7pm)
Mark Selby v Stephen Maguire (Tuesday January 12th at 7pm)
Neil Robertson v Yan Bingtao (Tuesday January 12th at 1pm)
Joe Perry v David Gilbert (Sunday January 10th at 7pm)
Kyren Wilson v Gary Wilson (Sunday January 10th at 1pm)
John Higgins v Mark Allen (Wednesday January 13th at 7pm)
Ronnie O’Sullivan v Ding Junhui (Wednesday January 13th at 1pm)
Quarter-final schedule:
QF1 (Bingham or Un-Nooh v Murphy or Williams): Thursday January 14th at 7pm
QF2 (Selby or Maguire v Robertson or Yan): Friday January 15th at 7pm
QF3 (Trump or Gilbert v Wilson or Lisowski): Thursday January 14th at 1pm
QF4 (Higgins or Allen v O’Sullivan or Ding): Friday January 15th at 1pm
Semi-final schedule
SF1: Saturday January 16th at 1pm
SF2: Saturday January 16th at 7pm
Final
Sunday January 17th at 1pm and 7pm

Good to see Snookerbacker back !

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker :

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1350048179002241025

:





snookerbacker MBE



@snookerbacker

Yan Bingtao to grind out a 6-4 win over a cue banging Mags #SpoilerAlert

11:52 AM · Jan 15, 2021·Twitter for Android

8
Likes






Mr. Phil Robinson BSc (of M18 Snooker Blogs)

@PhiltheRenegade
·
54m

Replying to
@snookerbacker
I'd actually go along with that. The difference in this match is that Maguire is now the big favourite. If Mags starts well then Yan could get steamrollered. If he doesn't, then Yan just has to keep his head to win




Derm


tSnookerAndDarts



@dermotsnooker
·
51m

Is Mags favourite?


Show replies






Art of Snooker

@147talk
·
31m

Replying to
@snookerbacker
I can see this happening. Maguire is better but so was Neil and we all know how his game with Yan went.




Gareth 'The Legend'

@romfordslim1477
·
27m

Replying to
@snookerbacker
Mags to win 6-2

 

[church66]

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snookerbacker MBE



@snookerbacker
·
12m

Tonight's #SpoilerAlert O'Sullivan wins 6-3 after a flying start by Higgins. Tea leaves say to expect 4 century breaks .

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1350148785738051585

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker :​

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March 22, 2021​

Tour Championship and Crucible Seedings​

Filed under:

• Snooker Betting
• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 10:00 am

The ITV adverts are back
The top eight players on the one-year ranking list head back to the Celtic Manor Resort today for the Tour Championship, a world ranking event which runs from March 22nd to 28th.
We kick off today with another battle between a resurgent John Higgins and World Champion Ronnie O’Sullivan and it’s all live on ITV4 so the time you spend not watching the snooker can be spent planning your funeral arrangements and pondering how to spend your remaining time on this wretched planet.
The first round schedule is:
QF1 Judd Trump (1) v Barry Hawkins (8): Thursday March 25th
QF2 John Higgins (4) v Ronnie O’Sullivan (5): Monday March 22nd
QF3 Neil Robertson (3) v Jack Lisowski (6): Tuesday March 23rd
QF4 Mark Selby (2) v Kyren Wilson (7): Wednesday March 24th
All the matches in this event are the Best of 19 so it’s a real appetiser for the feast of snooker that awaits in April and May.
The sub-text to this event are the seedings for the upcoming World Championship, which is only a few short weeks away. We now know the 16 players who are automatically lining up in Sheffield but we’re not yet 100% sure of all their places in the draw, very much like Eric Morecambe playing the piano, he knows all the notes but not necessarily in the right order.
We know that a recent World Champion in the shape of Stuart Bingham will be heading to the qualifiers for the first time in a decade and we know Ronnie and Judd’s possible second round opponents, but almost everything is up in the air until this event draws to a close next weekend.
Hopefully, this also means that the World Qualifiers will be drawn early this week so we can start dissecting the match ups in that.
As things stand, if all the seeds were to win their opener at The Crucible, this is how the second round would look.
Ronnie O’Sullivan v Anthony McGill
Stephen Maguire v Ding Junhui
John Higgins v Mark Allen
Neil Robertson v Barry Hawkins
Mark Selby v Jack Lisowski
Kyren Wilson v Mark Williams
Shaun Murphy v Yan Bingtao
Judd Trump v Dave Gilbert
I’ll update the above draw as things change through the week ahead.

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker​

http://www.snookerbacker.com/

March 23, 2021​

World Championship: The Fate of the Favourites – A Potted History​

Filed under:

• Snooker Betting
• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 12:00 pm

Quote .​

"
With the World Championship just around the corner, it’s once again time to revamp an old archive post and take a look at how well the favourites at the bookies at the big event have fared down the years.

When you look back at the history books you find that the bookies have given remarkably few players the accolade of World Championship favourite as the years have passed, Ronnie O’Sullivan has now held that accolade a record 13 times in his career, but this year it’s the turn once again of the 2019 champion Judd Trump to head the bookies lists and take home a second title after he fell foul of The Crucible Curse last year.

The World Championship has now been a Crucible staple since before some people reading this were born and it’s also long been associated with us all liking a good old bet on the winner. But how many times has the main favourite obliged? Is it more common for an outsider to steal the crown and are there any players out there who just don’t seem to like being the chased rather than the chaser?

Well, let’s take a look and see…

The 80’s were predictably dominated by Steve Davis, who started favourite for this and every other championship every year from 1981 to 1989. That honour/pressure then reverted to Stephen Hendry, whose 90’s titles mostly justified favouritism, though interestingly he did win one when not the strongest fancy in the field, just as Ronnie has done many times since.

It was then the turn of O’Sullivan to assume the mantle of the man the bookies both loved and feared, he started favourite for the title 9 times between the years 2000 and 2009, since when we’ve seen other names start as the bookies one to beat, until six years ago when Ronnie was back at the top of the odds list where he remained until 2017, when Selby headed up the market, before Ronnie returned to favouritism again last year.

So how have they got on? Well, after painstaking research I think I have managed to capture every favourite since 1981, the year a red-hot, red-haired favourite started his 80’s reign of baize dominance. "

So, the figures as they stand are since 1981:
Winning Favourites (Including Joint Favourites): 15
Losing Favourites (Including Joint Favourites): 26
Most Successful Favourites: Steve Davis (6 wins out of 9 attempts) and Stephen Hendry (6 out of 9).
Least Successful Favourite: Ronnie O’Sullivan (2 wins out of 14 attempts).
Most Successful Non-Favourite: Ronnie O’Sullivan (4 times winner when not favourite)
Clear Favourites who have lost in Round 1: Ronnie O’Sullivan (three times), Stephen Hendry (once), Steve Davis (once).
Co/Joint Favorites who have lost in Round 1: Neil Robertson (once).
Victims of The Crucible Curse: John Spencer (1978), Ray Reardon (1979), Terry Griffiths (1980), Cliff Thorburn (1981), Steve Davis (1982), Alex Higgins (1983), Dennis Taylor (1986), Joe Johnson (1987), Stephen Hendry (1991), John Parrott (1992), Ken Doherty (1998), John Higgins (1999), Mark Williams (2001), Ronnie O’Sullivan (2002), Peter Ebdon (2003), Shaun Murphy (2006), Graeme Dott (2007), Neil Robertson (2011), Mark Selby (2015), Stuart Bingham (2016), Judd Trump (2020)….
Defeaters of The Crucible Curse: NOBODY. EVER.

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker​

March 31, 2021​

World Championship Qualifiers Preview​

Filed under:

• Snooker Betting
• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 7:56 pm
Let’s just cut to the chase here.

Most of you are only reading this post because of one match. Yes, once again, the master puppeteer has engineered a headline act in snooker that beats all previous headlines. On Monday we have the ultimate nostalgia dream trip in the World Qualifiers; something that we never thought we’d see again.

Thank you Barry.

It is of course about a lot more than Stephen and Jimmy, but let’s face it, they will steal the headlines decades on from when they were both at the top of the sport.

Neither will qualify for The Crucible, I’m certain of that, but the match itself is what we need after the year we’ve all had to endure so I think it’s a masterstroke, if slightly on the bleedingly obvious side that the draw was concocted whilst fishing and making calls from the man in charge of snooker.

Anyway, as ever, the qualifiers for The Crucible remain for me the second best event of the year behind the big one a few days after their conclusion. So, I am about to forensically examine each of the 16 groups and try to give some insight in to who will qualify to play at The Crucible. The fairweather snooker fans will stop after group one, the casual fan may last until half way down. But the anoraks will remain. – we stand together people with our thermos flasks, filled to the brim with hot soup.

I will qualify the thoughts below by saying they are my own. Like everyone, there will have been things that have passed me by this year. I’ve not been as glued to snooker as I may have been in previous years and I’m paying little attention to the issue of tour survival, but I’ll try and give a bit of insight in terms of what I think might be worth taking an interest in if you are a punter below. However, I reserve the right when it comes to some of the names below to utter the well crafted BBC commentary line that ‘it’s the first time I’ve seen this young man play’.

Who will qualify?

With the Easter eggs still very much in play we can all settle down on Monday evening for Jimmy and Stephen. It’s obviously the show stealer but once it’s done I’d be surprised if the winner proceeded much further. I’d say on the evidence of Hendry’s only comeback match to date he’d be the more likely to gain momentum if he were to win but even if he saw off Xu Si in the next round the prospect of a meeting with Zhou Yuelong would surely prove a step too far, even with the ‘fear factor’ of facing the great man built in. Yuelong has to be favourite to prevail from this group but I’d not rule out any of the players in the bottom half. Liam Highfield is more than capable at this level and of course we know that Slessor will take a bit of beating. I’d not even rule out Zak Surety progressing to the final round, but on balance it has to be Zhou, who remember wasn’t even born when Hendry was enjoying all his final beatings of Jimmy.

Let’s just cut to the chase here.

Most of you are only reading this post because of one match. Yes, once again, the master puppeteer has engineered a headline act in snooker that beats all previous headlines. On Monday we have the ultimate nostalgia dream trip in the World Qualifiers; something that we never thought we’d see again.

Thank you Barry.

It is of course about a lot more than Stephen and Jimmy, but let’s face it, they will steal the headlines decades on from when they were both at the top of the sport.

Neither will qualify for The Crucible, I’m certain of that, but the match itself is what we need after the year we’ve all had to endure so I think it’s a masterstroke, if slightly on the bleedingly obvious side that the draw was concocted whilst fishing and making calls from the man in charge of snooker.

Anyway, as ever, the qualifiers for The Crucible remain for me the second best event of the year behind the big one a few days after their conclusion. So, I am about to forensically examine each of the 16 groups and try to give some insight in to who will qualify to play at The Crucible. The fairweather snooker fans will stop after group one, the casual fan may last until half way down. But the anoraks will remain. – we stand together people with our thermos flasks, filled to the brim with hot soup.

I will qualify the thoughts below by saying they are my own. Like everyone, there will have been things that have passed me by this year. I’ve not been as glued to snooker as I may have been in previous years and I’m paying little attention to the issue of tour survival, but I’ll try and give a bit of insight in terms of what I think might be worth taking an interest in if you are a punter below. However, I reserve the right when it comes to some of the names below to utter the well crafted BBC commentary line that ‘it’s the first time I’ve seen this young man play’.
Who will qualify?

With the Easter eggs still very much in play we can all settle down on Monday evening for Jimmy and Stephen. It’s obviously the show stealer but once it’s done I’d be surprised if the winner proceeded much further. I’d say on the evidence of Hendry’s only comeback match to date he’d be the more likely to gain momentum if he were to win but even if he saw off Xu Si in the next round the prospect of a meeting with Zhou Yuelong would surely prove a step too far, even with the ‘fear factor’ of facing the great man built in. Yuelong has to be favourite to prevail from this group but I’d not rule out any of the players in the bottom half. Liam Highfield is more than capable at this level and of course we know that Slessor will take a bit of beating. I’d not even rule out Zak Surety progressing to the final round, but on balance it has to be Zhou, who remember wasn’t even born when Hendry was enjoying all his final beatings of Jimmy.

 

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Predicted Qualifier: Zhou Yuelong

A section filled with familiar names next, from Nigel Bond, Ken Doherty and Dom Dale at one end of the spectrum to younger bucks Donaldson and Lines with Matt Selt somewhere in between. I was very impressed with the way Selt rose to the big Hendry challenge when some players might have caved in under the pressure and if he plays anything like he did in that match he’ll take some stopping here. If we take this group to its logical conclusion we’ll see Selt and Donaldson at Judgement Day but let’s not rule out one of the old hands causing a shock or two, Ken in particular can still get the odd run going. It has to be noted however that Donaldson holds a massive superior head to head over Selt, even though it’s mostly over short distances, Selt’s not beaten him in six attempts.

Predicted Qualifier: Scott Donaldson

A few more familiar names here in another section which has a mix of established players and younger potters. Kurt Maflin will have his supporters following his promising run last season but he’s been largely absent recently and may have his mind on other matters. This gives Robert Milkins the favourites chance I’d say, obviously he’s deadly on his day in the balls but he does struggle for consistency. I reckon this section might see one of the players starting earlier build up some momentum and qualify and looking at his results this season, Joe O’Connor has shown enough to give him as good a chance as any of upsetting the odds.

Predicted Qualifier: Joe O’Connor

With the sad passing of Mr Maximum Willie Thorne last year it’s quite fitting that another player from the Leicester region, Tom Ford, is assuming the mantle of a 147 specialist without necessarily ever winning anything. His scoring power is up there with the top players in the game so it’s something of a mystery why he’s never quite made the big breakthrough. He’s had good runs in a couple of recent rankers and has been playing consistently all season down in Milton Keynes so there will be no doubting his match sharpness. I reckon he’ll have taken a look at this draw and thought it could have been a lot more difficult and he’d be one of my more confident picks to be lining up at The Crucible. His main threat Noppon is arguably not in great form but is another big scorer if he finds it.

Predicted Qualifier: Tom Ford

Another former Crucible champion in the shape of The Highland Terrier Graeme Dott lines up in this section and Dotty is something of a qualifiers specialist these days, he tends to breeze through them in the least dramatic fashion possible and there’s nothing to suggest that he’ll not be at least in the mix on Judgement Day again this year. It will be interesting to see how Reanne gets on against Andy Hicks and possibly Eden Sharav, I’d say at her best she’s a match for both but Dott is a different kettle of fish. In the bottom section I’d fancy Tian Pengfei to make it into the showdown with Dott but he’s never beaten the Scot in four attempts. It has to be Dott.

Predicted Qualifier: Graeme Dott

Another competitive one here with no real clear favourite on form. It would be nice to see Michael Holt have a run at The Crucible as he’s fast become a favourite with a lot of people on social media and I’d include myself in that, but I must blog with my head rather than my heart. Li Hang is obviously a danger man here but if we go a little further back we find a player with a point to prove and a proven Crucible pedigree in Jamie Jones. Very much like the wounded animal and now fully back in business following his enforced period out of the game I can’t think of anyone who will be more determined to get back where he feels he belongs, so on that philosophy alone I make him the man to beat here.

Predicted Qualifier: Jamie Jones

This section definitely has something of a Chinese qualifier feel to it. Jimmy Robertson will need to recapture form of a couple of seasons ago to compete against the likes of Lu Ning and Liang Wenbo. It seems incredible that Robertson has to win his first match here to stay on tour but I suppose if he does, the relief of doing so might just carry him over the line in this section. Liang hasn’t really done much this season and on season only form you’d have to fancy Lu Ning to prevail, but Wenbo can just turn it on when you least expect it so without a great deal of confidence I’m going to plump for him, he’s far better to watch than Lu Ning so just from an entertainment point of view I hope he makes it through.

Predicted Qualifier: Liang Wenbo

 

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Some more old hands here in the shape of Joe Perry, Dark Mavis and Fearless Fergal (O’Brien, not the other one) so we can expect some right old grapples in this section. Perry starts an obvious favourite and looking at the draw I think he’ll face Jamie Clarke again at this stage, after losing to him last August it was Jamie who went on to conquer Mark Allen at The Crucible before ‘that’ match against McGill. This won’t be straightforward for Joe if the Welshman has built up some momentum and the memories of that defeat may creep up on him again, but he has the experience to put that behind him in a bid for some revenge. Up in the top section lurks the quietly consistent Stuart Carrington who knows what it takes to qualify so Mavis has his work cut out there. I’d say qualifying is between Perry, Clarke and Carrington and again the pick below goes with the most experienced of the three.

Predicted Qualifier: Joe Perry

A strong favourite to progress in this group in the shape of Thepchaiya Un-Nooh who was unlucky to come up against Ronnie in August after the previous year losing to Judd in a really tight match. You’d hope that if he qualifies again the draw may be a little easier on him so as he doesn’t get beat by the winner three years in a row. It’s difficult to see past him qualifying for Judgement Day where he’ll surely face either Anthony Hamilton or Mark Joyce who I’m sure would both attempt to win by slowing the pace of the match right down. Hamilton continues to struggle with his health but remains quality on his day, Joyce conjures up wins when you least expect it, but I have to stick with Un-Nooh here and if he does get through have a few quid on his first round opponent to win the whole thing if you believe in things happening in threes.

Predicted Qualifier: Thepchaiya Un-Nooh

Ryan Day and Ricky Walden are two Crucible stalwarts but it seems a while since either of them were there as of right, interestingly to me at least, they’ve met 14 times and never over any longer than best of nine, which they’ve played each other just twice at, so if they do meet it will be the longest ever match they have contested at best of 19. Who is to stop them? Ashley Carty hasn’t really kicked on from qualifying for Sheffield last time and faces a tough opener against another Crucible seed of the past Michael White, I like Louis Heathcote, he seems to have a good all round game but results mean he is fighting to retain his tour place, if he clicks though he could upset the odds here, but out of Day and Walden I’d favour Day just on recent form.

Predicted Qualifier: Ryan Day

Martin Gould had a great spell of form that coincided with the delayed World Championship last summer and followed his good Crucible performance up with a narrow defeat to Mark Selby in the European Open final but he’s been a little bit quiet since then. Another player who has had a mediocre season is Ben Woollaston so you might argue that the two top seeds are there to be shot at here from further back. The presence of Alan McManus here could unsettle the top two if wily old Angles is up to the job and it would also be nice to see my pal Allan Taylor get himself in the mix. I know a lot of people fancy Gould to coast this one but I think he’s proving quite an inconsistent player to have faith in, Daniel Wells could well give him a surprise I’d say but my eyes keep coming back to that man Angles.

Predicted Qualifier: Alan McManus

If someone had told you at the start of the season that Gary Wilson or Jordan Brown would win a ranking event in the coming months with a gun to your head to choose which one, most of us wouldn’t be around today. Jordan’s capture of the Welsh Open and the manner in which he beat Ronnie in the final came from nowhere and although he’s lost his two matches since he still must be treated as a totally different proposition now than 12 months ago, when Wilson would probably have been heavily odds on to qualify from this group. David Grace is what I like to think of as a banana skin player, one who you underestimate at your peril and Brown needs to be on song to get past him. Further back we have Scouser Sean Maddocks who is still learning about life as a pro and his game with Cahill would be a good one to watch. Anyway, I’m sticking with Wilson here as despite the Welsh win, I still think he’s the best player of this bunch.

Predicted Qualifier: Gary Wilson

The bang in form Ali Carter is available at 5/6 to qualify and I’d suggest that to be the best single bet of this entire event. His recent form suggests that he’s as sharp as a tack and for me it will be a real shock to not see him at The Crucible. The main threats must surely only be who he might face on Judgement Day having won his first warm up easily. Alexander Ursenbacher gained some fans last August and I like the way he plays the game so I expect him to progress to play The MO’D for the right to face The Captain but over a two session match I can only see a win for Ali, one player that all the seeds will want to dodge when the main draw is done.

Predicted Qualifier: Ali Carter

This is one of the more unpredictable sections in my opinion. You could make a case for all the top 4 players and you’d not rule out a shock coming from further back either which makes for an interesting match on Judgement Day and perhaps a Crucible debutant emerging. Hossein Vafaei and Zhao Xintong have their admirers and there is no doubt that on their day they have the game to progress and even have a win or two at the main event but it will come as no surprise to those who know me that I’m going to side with Sam Craigie who I rate very highly and who I’m sure one day will justify my faith in him. He’s shown enough recently to suggest that his time to shine might not be that far away.

Predicted Qualifier: Sam Craigie

You can make a case for four of these to qualify but I’d be very surprised if any of the four starting out got any further given Ian Burns and Chris Wakelin are waiting for them. I’d say this will go to form and we’ll see Stevens taking on Wakelin and Goudong face Burns to get to Judgement Day. In terms of form you’d have to fancy Xiao most strongly but you never know which Matthew might turn up, both Burns and Wakelin will also fancy their chances and I reckon the final best of 19 match might be a bit twitchy whoever is in it. But on current form I’m sticking with the one who’s been consistently the strongest this season.

Predicted Qualifier: Xiao Guodong

The final section sees arguably the ‘big hitter’ of the whole event Stuart Bingham in a potentially tricky group featuring Belgian Bullet Luca Brecel and the grappler Mark King. It doesn’t seem long at all since Ballrun won the title and it’s really rather a shock to see him here as I still consider him firmly as a top ten player, but the ranking list doesn’t lie and that’s why he’s where he is. I don’t think he’ll mind too much and he’ll probably use the experience as best he can to get sharp for the big one. Do I think he’ll qualify? Yes I do, the fact his first match should be fairly straightforward and then he moves on to a two session one is enough for me, another one to be avoided in round one.

Predicted Qualifier: Stuart Bingham

What I have backed – all at Ladbrokes with Boosted Odds:

Fourfold to qualify on Tom Ford, Thepchaiya Un-Nooh, Ali Carter and Stuart Bingham pays just over 10/1

Add Joe Perry and Graeme Dott for a sixfold pays around 38/1

Fourfolds and an Accumulator on Donaldson, O’Connor, Jamie Jones, Day and Craigie, acca pays 421/1.

http://www.parriscues.com/

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker : https://www.snookerbacker.com/​

Snookerbacker​

April 15, 2021​

The World Championship Preview – Trump Can Justify Favouritism​

Filed under:

• Snooker Betting
• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 3:20 pm

*Goosebumps*
After all the drama of the qualifiers down the road it’s now time for the big one. Saturday sees Ronnie O’Sullivan breaking off at The Crucible to defend the title he won what seems like only a few weeks ago.
It’s going to be an unusual Crucible experience again and if all goes to plan the smaller audience will gradually build to a crescendo for the final, when we are led to believe the place will be packed to the rafters with a masked up and fully tested and traced crowd.
Of course it remains to be seen how many will be prepared to undergo the mandatory test, sign the ‘if I get sick and die I won’t sue Barry Hearn’ papers and sit there sweating it out in the notoriously hot arena with the mask over their nose and mouth. I have to say it doesn’t sound particularly like my cup of tea and like a few others I’m choosing Arsedent Central on the sofa for the 17 days.
But let’s wish those who do turn up well and hopefully this event will signal a return to something like normality. Fingers crossed there aren’t any hiccups and that all the 32 players get their experience of walking out to a crowd, something that last year only those playing on Day 1 and the two finalists got to savour.
It’s been a shitty year all round so what better way to bring in Spring than this? The 16 seeds against the 16 qualifiers as is tradition to open things up. Let battle commence.
A reminder that all matches in the top half are played on Table 1 (on the right as the telly sees them, the one in the main image) and all bottom half are on Table 2. I’ve included all session times under each match.
Click on the match to take you to the Head to Head record at the excellent Cue Tracker.
Ronnie O’Sullivan (1) v Mark Joyce
Saturday 17th 10am and 7pm
Ronnie kicks things off on Saturday with a match that I’m sure everyone barring Mark Joyce (I assume) expects him to win comfortably. Let’s not beat about the bush here, the draw has been very kind to O’Sullivan this year and Joyce is playing his first ever match at The Crucible after a long career trying to get here. As ever, the progress of snooker’s biggest star will depend largely on whether he is mentally right for the job. He’s already demanding protection from the crowds that follow his every move in Sheffield and the anoraked up selfie crew who gather outside of the Stage Door with their flasks of soup to nab anyone they can for a photo. This may point to him not being in the greatest frame of mind or simply that he’s conscious, as we should all be, that social distancing should continue to be observed, though something tells me he’d prefer it to be 2 miles rather than 2 metres. Joyce will have nothing to lose here but he’s not the type of player to play with wild abandon and go for his shots and we all know that you don’t really come out on top these days in a tactical battle with Ronnie, I’d be surprised if we see another Cahill day here.
Prediction: O’Sullivan 10-3
Anthony McGill (16) v Ricky Walden
Sunday 18th 10am, Monday 19th 7pm
After last August’s histrionics, heroics and heartbreak Anthony McGill returns to the arena just a few short months later to face his demons. Whether it’s because of what happened in the semi-final last season or not he’s not had a very good season at all in terms of results in the big events and he faces an experienced player in Walden who makes a welcome return here on the back of the qualifiers. Ricky seemed in good spirits after defeating Ryan Day and with his tail up, the man without a nickname will be a difficult opponent if McGill isn’t on his A game. Tellingly, Ricky said he was fit again and back running after what seems like years of back problems which have undoubtedly affected his results and ranking. I think just on the basis of him keeping the momentum going I’m going to plump for the seed to be beaten here. At their best these two are pretty much equal and Walden looks closer to his at the moment than McGill does.
Prediction: Walden 10-6
Ding Junhui (9) v Stuart Bingham
Monday 19th 10am, Tuesday 20th 2.30pm
Lots of ooo’s and aaahh’s accompanied these two balls coming out of the bags, JP gave his customary eyebrow rise, Betfred Mark gave his best excited face while Rob bellowed ‘THIS IS GOING TO BE EPIC’ like a man possessed, deafening his fellow presenters in the process. It’s certainly an interesting clash and Ballrun is probably the man none of them wanted to draw first up. His record against Ding is good, particularly recently, like a few of these first round match ups this year they have met here before, back in 2011 when Ding won a decider over the best of 25, but Bingham has become a different player since then and these days knocks in big breaks for fun. The one thing I will say is that if this match lets down the ‘century in every match’ bet (because one will obviously) I will raise more than an eyebrow. Bingham is in superb form, we don’t really know which Ding will turn up so I’m going to side with the known known rather than the known unknown, that’s right isn’t it?
Prediction: Bingham 10-8
Stephen Maguire (8) v Jamie Jones
Saturday 17th 2.30pm (TBC), Sunday 18th 7pm
The Saturday afternoon session time is yet to be confirmed at time of writing because we all have to look sad and STFU for at least a minute around the time this is due to start because someone died. Stephen Maguire has had a decent season, though not quite as good in terms of consistency as you might expect looking at his results. I tipped up Jamie Jones to qualify as I felt he is a player with a point to prove and when he did his post-match interview it confirmed these thoughts. He feels that he belongs on the big stage and he has a great record at The Crucible the times he’s been here so the venue if anything inspires him rather than the opposite. Head to heads don’t really count here but just a bit of trivia that they have only faced each other once and Jones won 5-0. Jamie is a player that I think is capable of ‘doing a Dave Gilbert/Gary Wilson’ and having a run in this, he’s hungry, he’s determined, he’s playing well and I think it will take a really good performance to knock him out. If he can get that far I’d not be surprised if he knocked Ronnie out on the quarter finals. Beware the wounded animal.
Prediction: Jones 10-9
John Higgins (5) v Tian Pengfei
Sunday 18th 2.30pm, Monday 19th 2.30pm
John Parrott proclaimed John Higgins ‘a bit of value’ in the outright market this year and thinks he has another world title in him, what do you think? He’s undoubtedly still a force in the game and has played sublime stuff at times this season in Milton Keynes, but he’s just come up short so many times in the last few years I’ve got some doubts about his stamina. He’s been handed a very winnable opener against a player he has played and beaten three times so there’s no reason to think he won’t do so again and boss this one from the start. Tian played very well to qualify and has had a tough few months in isolation but even before that he wasn’t really doing much at all. He knocked in three centuries to beat Graeme Dott but you have to say his run to here has come somewhat out of the blue, even based on his pre-isolation form. Higgins should take care of business here.
Prediction: Higgins 10-4
Mark Williams (12) v Sam Craigie
Wednesday 21st 10am and 7pm
As a big supporter of Sam Craigie I’m delighted that he’s made it here for the first time, regular listeners to my half-baked opinions will know how highly I rate him and it will be very interesting to see how he copes with Willo. Williams seems very content with his game at the moment, he’s accepting he’s not going to be at his best all the time while at the same time saying he’s playing really well. Sam is similar to Williams in that he’s a very laid back kind of character on the outside but fiercely competitive on the inside. There will be a lot of people who will want to see Williams face Higgins again in Round 2 and who is to say that if Williams comes out on top he might not go and win it again? I’d rather Sam had drawn someone else if I’m totally honest and while I really hope he gives a good account of himself, with Williams in form I couldn’t possibly back him here with any real confidence.
Prediction: Williams 10-6

 

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Mark Allen (13) v Lyu Haotian

Tuesday 20th 10am and 7pm

It’s been a quiet season by Mark Allen’s standard. Beaten early in both previous triple crown events he comes here very much under the radar with very few people predicting him as a likely winner, perhaps that will suit him just fine, sometimes a player coming in on the back of a poor season can use this as inspiration. For my part I think he represents some value at the 28/1 or so knocking around and I definitely wouldn’t discount a run to the one table situation for him and from there, who knows? He faces Lyu Haotian who came through a phenomenal match with Chang Bingyu knocking in three centuries to win 10-6. Allen has played and beaten him twice and I think if he gets an early lead he’ll probably keep his opponent at arms length for the rest of the match, this one has a 6-3 first session and 4-3 or 4-4 in the second feel about it to me

Prediction: Allen 10-7

Mark Selby (4) v Kurt Maflin

Wednesday 21st 2.30pm, Thursday 22nd 7pm

Another two who have met here before, back in 2015 they locked horns with Selby as defending champion on day one in a pulsating match which I was lucky enough to see live, Selby taking a late night decider to win 10-9. I remember that match well for another reason, myself and others had convinced ourselves that given Maflin’s scoring prowess, the 6/4 available on him to make a century in the match was akin to finding it in the street, 19 frames and a highest break of 96 later we were all left licking our wounds. But of course I’m not bitter in the slightest. Rob Walker said he thought Selby was right back to his best during the draw but I’m not so sure of that, at his best he was a prolific finalist and winner and although this season he has won two ranking titles just lately he seems to be finding someone eventually to beat him in the quarters or semi’s. This one could go close but on balance I’ll take Selby to grind out a result again.

Prediction: Selby 10-8
Neil Robertson (3) v Liang Wenbo

Saturday 17th 2.30pm (TBC), Sunday 18th 7pm

Now if you are a believer in backing the man in form, look no further than Neil Robertson. A dismantling of O’Sullivan in the latest final of which Ronnie said the like he had never seen sees him enter Day 1 as many people’s idea of the champion. He’s no stranger to this of course and to me it’s a mystery that he hasn’t at least made the final again since he won it. There is a school of thought that says he doesn’t like the venue, some say he puts too much pressure on himself, whatever the reason, it is confusing to me why he’s underperformed here for a decade. He faces a tough opener and if he gets through that he faces a very tough second round too, which I think will do him good and focus his mind, he’ll know he’ll need to be near his best from the start if he’s going to progress and perhaps that is just what he needs. He played Liang here in the first round last August and ran out a comfortable 10-5 winner. In fact, both best of 19’s they have played have been the same score and they do say these things come in threes.

Prediction: Robertson 10-5

Jack Lisowski (14) v Ali Carter

Monday 19th 2.30pm, Tuesday 20th 10am

Crash, bang, wallop. I don’t know about socially distancing but if I was in the front row for this one I’d be wearing a crash helmet the way these two will be going at it. They last met at this stage two years ago and it was Carter who came out on top there 10-6, so again we are seeing another re-run. Ali is clearly in great form at the moment and has has two solid performances behind him while Jack is still waiting in vain to get to a ranking final and not have Judd staring at him from the other chair. It’s a measure of how well Jack has played this season that he is 6th on the one year ranking list with only the real big hitters of the game ahead of him, Ali is further down in 17th but has definitely saved his best snooker for the end of the season. I’m just going to sit and enjoy this one, in terms of a winner I’ll take the player with the proven Crucible pedigree to prevail.

Prediction: Carter 10-8

Barry Hawkins (11) v Matt Selt

Tuesday 20th 7pm, Wednesday 21st 7pm

Once again a repeat of the opening weekend in 2015 and a match that again I enjoyed live in the arena that went all the way. I recall Barry had a 9-4 lead and Selt then produced some superb snooker to level at 9-9 only for a relieved Hawk to unclip his wings and fall over the line in the decider. Selt played superbly again to qualify and knocked in three centuries in both his matches including 140, 137 and 135, so anything like that form gives Hawkins a real problem. Barry himself has had a very consistent season and is 7th on the one year list having most recently beaten Judd 10-7 and lost a decider to Ronnie in the Tour Championship. I think this one could be just as good as their tie six years ago and (don’t laugh) I’d expect a few centuries along the way. Another one to sit back and enjoy I think.

Prediction: Selt 10-9

Kyren Wilson (6) v Gary Wilson

Monday 19th 10am and 7pm

OK, OK Wilson’s going to win, just leave the jokes to me yeah? Last year’s finalist Kyren takes on the surprise semi-finalist of 2019 Gary in what’s now to be known as the Wilson Derby. They faced each other most recently at The Masters a few months ago when Gary was still in the top 16, Kyren running out a comfortable 6-2 winner there. Gary has admitted to being in a dark place for quite a while and claimed he was desperate during the qualifiers to get back here and taste the experience again. If he manages to win I think he’ll be prime pickings for Rob Walker’s quest to get someone crying so keep a watery eye out for that. I think Kyren probably has that bit extra of the two and I expect this one to go with the seedings.

Prediction: Wilson (only joking), Kyren 10-6

Shaun Murphy (7) v Dark Mavis

Wednesday 21st 10am, Thursday 22nd 1pm

You have to go back to 2003 this time, but again these two have met here before aswell at this stage, Murphy winning 10-8 with an impressive three centuries to boot. Fast forward 18 years and the man nobody except Rob Walker calls the Battler from Hastings, Dark Mavis is back to take on the adopted Irishman. It’s been a frustrating season for Murphy who at one point in the season spent the best part of three solid months in Milton Keynes, enough to drive anyone insane at the best of times, unable to return home and sometimes not having any matches to play so he arguably deserves a break. He’s had a slight one here with the draw I’d say, Mavis was as good as out of the qualifiers before an inspired comeback against Jamie Clarke so he’ll see anything from now on as a bonus, but I’d say Murphy should get off to a solid start here against one of the more favourable draws.

Prediction: Murphy 10-6

Yan Bingtao (10) v Martin Gould

Saturday 17th 10am, Sunday 18th 10am

This is an interesting one, particularly as it will be the first time Yan will have played in front of a crowd as the Masters Champion with the hopes of an entire nation now beginning to transfer to him from Ding as the first potential Chinese world champion. He faces a very tricky opener in Pinner Potter Gould, who Ken very unkindly said looked more like Harry Potter during the qualifiers. It was Gould who won a decider on their only meeting this season after Yan had beaten him on all three previous occasions. Yan has been fairly quiet since his Masters triumph and been beaten by players way down the rankings since so it’s fair to say that of the two, Gould is probably coming into this with momentum and some real match sharpness. This can count for a lot in the first round here.

Prediction: Gould 10-8

Dave Gilbert (15) v Chris Wakelin

Saturday 17th 7.30pm, Sunday 18th 2.30pm

The man with the best walk on song in snooker is back in his stripy socks to try and emulate his performance in 2019 when he was just one kick away from reaching the final and winning me stacks of money at 190/1. He faces the promising Chris Wakelin who will be another Rob Walker waterworks target following his emotional interview after qualifying where he revealed he owes everything to his coach as he was about to jack it all in a few months ago. Dave hasn’t had a great season and finds himself way down in 52nd place on the one year list as a result so he really needs to have his shooting boots on here to stand any chance of retaining his top 16 place. Chris has been here before and lost narrowly to Judd so he’ll be keen to put that right, it’s a tough call this one and no result would surprise me, Chris could well spring a surprise and get to have another crack at Judd in the second round.

Prediction: Wakelin 10-7

 

[church66]

Judd Trump (2) v Liam Highfield

Tuesday 20th 2.30pm, Wednesday 21st 2.30pm

The world number one and tournament favourite Mr Moneybags himself Judd comes to the table on Tuesday without the weight of the Crucible Curse on his shoulders this time. He’s again top of the one year list and looks set to be number one seed in the sport for a good while to come unless something drastic happens here. Liam Highfield comes here for the second time having lost to Mark Allen in 2018 and will be buoyed by his win over the top seed Zhou Yuelong to qualify. He’d previously come through two deciders so he used up all but two of his quota of frames to get here. My guess is that Judd will be looking beyond the first two rounds to see who he’ll need to beat to make the semi-finals, my guess would be Murphy. I’ll be honest, it’s very difficult to see beyond him winning this quarter and once he gets to the one table set up I think he’ll start the naughty snooker up and turn it up a notch. He’s got plenty more world titles in him and I think his next one will be this year.

Prediction: Judd 10-4

PREDICTED WORLD CHAMPION: Judd Trump

PREDICTED RUNNER UP: Mark Allen

PREDICTED DARK HORSE: Jamie Jones

BETS I HAVE DONE:

Sam Craigie or Jamie Jones to reach the semi-finals, requested during qualifiers at 45/1 with Ladbrokes (no longer available).

A century to be made in every match at The Crucible at 15/1 with Ladbrokes.

100 or more centuries at The Crucible at 17/2 with Ladbrokes

MATCH BETS:

First Round 4 timer pays around 24/1 – Gould, Walden, Bingham and Carter

Over 16 frames in these matches: Lisowski/Carter, Maguire/Jones, Hawkins/Selt, Yan/Gould and Over 15 frames in Selby/Maflin – acca pays around 18/1.

Over 2 centuries in these five matches: Ding/Bingham, Higgins/Tian, Allen/Lyu, Murphy/Mavis, Hawkins/Selt – acca pays around 19/1.

To make the highest break of the championship: Stuart Bingham at 28/1, Liang Wenbo at 130/1, Kurt Maflin at 130/1 and Matt Selt at 160/1

For updates follow me on Twitter here

 

[church66]

April 14, 2021​

World Championship: The Fate of the Favourites – A Potted History​

Filed under:

• Snooker Betting
• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 10:00 am

Starts favourite for the second year running
With the World Championship just around the corner, it’s once again time to revamp an old archive post and take a look at how well the favourites at the bookies at the big event have fared down the years.
When you look back at the history books you find that the bookies have given remarkably few players the accolade of World Championship favourite as the years have passed, Ronnie O’Sullivan has now held that accolade a record 13 times in his career, but this year it’s the turn once again of the 2019 champion Judd Trump to head the bookies lists and take home a second title after he fell foul of The Crucible Curse last year.
The World Championship has now been a Crucible staple since before some people reading this were born and it’s also long been associated with us all liking a good old bet on the winner. But how many times has the main favourite obliged? Is it more common for an outsider to steal the crown and are there any players out there who just don’t seem to like being the chased rather than the chaser?
Well, let’s take a look and see…
The 80’s were predictably dominated by Steve Davis, who started favourite for this and every other championship every year from 1981 to 1989. That honour/pressure then reverted to Stephen Hendry, whose 90’s titles mostly justified favouritism, though interestingly he did win one when not the strongest fancy in the field, just as Ronnie has done many times since.
It was then the turn of O’Sullivan to assume the mantle of the man the bookies both loved and feared, he started favourite for the title 9 times between the years 2000 and 2009, since when we’ve seen other names start as the bookies one to beat, until eight years ago when Ronnie was back at the top of the odds list where he remained until 2017, when Selby replaced him as the chased. Since then it’s been a combination of Selby, Ronnie and Judd Trump, who finally ended his wait for the title in 2019.
So how have they got on? Well, after painstaking research I think I have managed to capture every favourite since 1981, the year a red-hot, red-haired favourite started his 80’s reign of baize dominance.
1981 – Steve Davis (Winner). Despite never having won the World Championship, Davis came into the sport’s main event as a hot favourite. He was to justify the bookies faith in him, beating Doug Mountjoy in the final after seeing off his main challenger that year, reigning champion Cliff Thorburn, in the semi-finals.
1982 – Steve Davis (1st Round Loser). This was the first year that the championship adopted its current format of 32 players in Round 1, it also interestingly started on Friday evening in a bid to boost ratings. This format change resulted in the biggest shock of the decade, Davis, an odds-on favourite and winning machine, suffering the newly found ‘Curse of the Crucible’ and losing the Friday session 8-1 before going out first round 10-1 to Bolton Stud Tony Knowles. Alex Higgins picked up the trophy and his daughter Lauren in one of the sports most memorable championships.
1983 and 1984 – Steve Davis (Winner/Winner). The bookies love affair with Davis continued as he put the Knowles defeat out of his mind to win the championship and almost everything else for the next two years. He had just one close match in ’83 against Dennis Taylor but other than that dominated the tournament, winning the final with a session to spare. 1984 wasn’t such a procession and saw the up and coming Jimmy ‘Whirlwind’ White nearly carry off a great final comeback, but Davis prevailed 18-16 in the first of Jimmy’s many final defeats.
1985 and 1986 – Steve Davis (Runner Up/Runner Up). Davis was still starting World Championships as very short priced (in ’85 he was odds-on) favourite but his backers suffered a temporary disruption to normal service in the period that Steve was basically winning almost everything else, re-writing the record books and making stacks for him and his manager Barry Hearn. Defeat on the final black at the hands of Dennis Taylor (who never really mentions it these days) and a year later to rank 150/1 outsider Joe Johnson meant he’d failed twice more to justify the bookies faith in him. But at least his loss to Dennis and his upside down glasses in front of a record sporting viewing TV audience in that famous final did inspire a great verse of Snooker Loopy. Every cloud….
1987, 1988, 1989 – Steve Davis (Winner/Winner/Winner). Despite what went before, the bookies and nearly everyone else on the planet knew we hadn’t seen the end of Davis. He remained short priced favourite and his magnificent treble meant he was the first player of the Crucible era to win three on the spin. Final wins over Johnson who remains the man who has come closest to breaking the first time champion Crucible Curse (2 frames ahead of Ken Doherty), Terry Griffiths and an absolute steamroller job on John Parrott cemented his place as the king of 80’s snooker. But the bookies were sensing this might be his swansong…..
1990 – Stephen Hendry (Winner). Young Scot Hendry started the 1990 Championship as UK and Masters Champion, having beaten Davis over the longer distance in the UK Final. The bookies had once again called it correctly and The Wonderbairn’s first title was secured, the final saw a win over his early 1990’s sparring partner, the luckless Jimmy White.

Hendry was usually pretty reliable, with the odd blip.