Snookerbacker

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1991 – Stephen Hendry (Quarter-Finalist). The Curse of the Crucible? Not on your nelly, the bookies laughed off this idea by making winning-machine Hendry a firm favourite to retain his title. But dark forces were at work as Brummie Biker Steve James unexpectedly ran over Hendry in the Quarter Finals. Scouser John Parrott was to take his one and only title defeating that man Jimmy White in the final.

1992-1996 – Stephen Hendry (Winner, Winner, Winner, Winner, Winner). There’s not really much more to add to that is there? Starts hot favourite every year and wins five on the bounce, beating Jimmy a further 3 times (don’t mention 1994) as well as Nigel Bond and Peter Ebdon. This was truly a period of pure dominance, the like of which we will probably never see again.

1997 – Stephen Hendry (Runner-Up). Hendry’s quest for a six-timer may have been what the bookies thought would happen, but the ever-popular and jovial Ken Doherty had other ideas and defied the odds to prevail 18-12 to let Stephen know for the first time what it felt like to be the runner-up.

1998 – Stephen Hendry (1st Round Loser). Hendry became only the second bookies favourite ever to lose in Round 1. His match up against Jimmy White giving Jimmy the chance to shine one last time against his old foe, unfortunately for him in the first, not the last round. Sadly for his millions of fans he couldn’t sustain the form and it was John Higgins who won his first world title and became instantly many people’s idea of the next man in line to dominate snooker, beating the valiant reigning champion Doherty in the final.

1999 – John Higgins (Losing Semi-Finalist). Holder of the UK Championship and the Masters as well as defending champion, Higgins was surely the one to break the Crucible Curse? But it wasn’t to be as Hendry returned to reclaim the rights to the decade that belonged to him, for once not as the bookies main man, he defeated Mark Williams to claim his record-breaking seventh title. What an amazing achievement this truly was from the sport’s greatest ever champion.

2000 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (1st Round Loser). A new name at the top of the bookies list was now materialising. But the explosive talent of Ronnie O’Sullivan, a marginal favourite in an open betting heat which also saw Higgins, Williams and Hendry well backed was beaten first round. Who by you may ask? Snookerbacker Classic Champion 2013, David Gray, that’s who. It was Welshman Mark Williams who was to claim his first World Championship with a win over fellow Taffy Matthew Stevens.

2001 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Winner) / John Higgins (Runner-Up) – Joint Favourites. The bookies couldn’t split them and in the end only four frames could in a year that went true to form. O’Sullivan taking his first World Championship after his two closest contemporaries Higgins and Williams. Williams himself falling foul of the old Crucible Curse, losing in the second round to Joe Swail.

2002 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Losing Semi-Finalist). Those bookies never learn do they? The Crucible Curse is real and Ronnie proved that again in 2002. He lost in the semi-finals to Hendry, who reached an incredible ninth world final. He couldn’t make it a historic Hendry the Eighth though and lost to Peter Ebdon in a dramatic decider to avenge his final defeat of 1996. This was to be Stephen’s last final, even he couldn’t maintain this level consistently anymore.

2003 – 2007 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (1st Round Loser/Winner/Losing Quarter Finalist/ Losing Semi-Finalist/Losing Quarter Finalist). Through the years Ronnie has proved himself the most prolific, least successful favourite in Crucible history. No other player has failed to justify favouritism more times than him. Only once in this five year sequence did he justify the punter’s confidence, making him, at least until recently, someone who was proving very costly to back at The Crucible. Two new champions in this era emerged in the form of Shaun Murphy in 2005 and Graeme Dott in 2006.

 

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2008 – John Higgins (Round 2 Loser). Higgins failed to justify the renewed faith the bookies put in him in 2008 and instead, Ronnie, now not quite the warm order he had been the previous 8 years was to claim his third crown, defeating Ali Carter in a fairly one-sided final, this continued a bad run for favourites during the Noughties.

2009 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Round 2 Loser). This was the last year until his resurgence more recently that Ronnie started clear favourite, he lost early on again, this time in an epic match against Mark Allen. This meant that of the nine times Ronnie had started Crucible favourite with the bookies, he had only won the title twice. Perhaps he preferred being the underdog? John Higgins claimed the title a third time to draw level with O’Sullivan in championship wins.


Rocked Higgins in 2010.
2010 – John Higgins (Round 2 Loser). This was the year which saw Neil Robertson storm to victory and the pre-tournament favourite and defending champion get himself into something of a pickle with the newspapers. Steve Davis time-travelled in a DeLorean into this year from the 80’s to claim Higgins’ scalp in Round 2, which still remains an amazing Crucible tale. Robertson beat Graeme Dott in a marathon final, played unfortunately under something of a cloud in dark days for the sport. But in brighter news, his 14/1 triumph paid for a large chunk of mine and Mrs SB’s wedding making him a firm favourite of ours, even if he wasn’t with the bookies.

2011 – John Higgins (Winner). It was an altogether different Higgins who entered the arena in 2011, having returned from his ban and after the loss of his father he had looked in superb form with a new found determination and purpose to his game. From the off he looked like justifying the bookie’s faith in him and he duly did in true Higgins style, breaking the pattern of losing favourites along the way and beating a new kid on the block, Judd Trump, in the final. He now led Ronnie 4-3 in title wins in their own personal battle.

2012 – Judd Trump (Round 2 Loser). Judd’s Crucible performance the previous year and the fanfare which surrounded him was enough to convince the bookies that he should start favourite marginally ahead of Mark Selby, Neil Robertson, John Higgins and Ronnie O’Sullivan. O’Sullivan however proved too good for the field and under the influence of Dr Steve Peters looked a different player to the unreliable and inconsistent one of the previous decade or so. Bear in mind however that he wasn’t favourite to win or widely fancied with many citing his inability to stay focused for the full duration of the tournament. After his triumph, clearly exhausted, he vowed to have a lot of time off, a promise he was to keep. He once again beat Ali Carter in a final which he described afterwards as being the best he had ever played.

2013 – Mark Selby / Neil Robertson / Judd Trump (Round 2 Loser/Round 1 Loser/Losing Semi-Finalist). O’Sullivan’s now legendary return to the baize after a season off saw him take his fifth title largely untroubled and never headed in any match, this also meant he overtook Higgins again in their own game of world championship leapfrog. He was available as long as 9/1 a few weeks before the tournament and many claimed he had ‘no chance’ of simply returning after a year off and winning again. But he did just that, beating Barry Hawkins in the final.

2014 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Runner-up). As Ronnie attempted the treble the bookies by now had wised up to him and made him the shortest priced favourite for many years. He’d been playing more events and going into this in strong form, unlike the previous year when he hadn’t played at all in the run up. But it wasn’t to be and the final against Mark Selby was to prove one step too far for The Rocket as Selby became the first new champion since Robertson. Ronnie yet again was a losing favourite.

2015 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Losing Quarter Finalist). Again being favourite at the bookies did Ronnie no favours, he was to come unstuck against the eventual champion Stuart Bingham in the Quarter Finals after a mentally fragile first week when most saw the signs that he wasn’t quite up to the job. Losing as the bookies favourite was now becoming a very annoying habit for him and his backers. Selby in the meantime was the latest victim of The Crucible Curse.

 

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2016 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Round 2 Loser). The bookies again made Ronnie favourite following a mercurial display in the Welsh Open and rumours of him hitting the practice table hard in the run up. But this time the man who he beat to win dare we think it, his last world title Barry Hawkins, was his conqueror in Round 2. It was the World Number 1 Mark Selby who ended up with the trophy in his hands for the second time, beating first time finalist Ding Junhui 18-14. It was another ‘Curse’ year, Stuart Bingham beaten by Ali Carter on Day 1 this time in a decider.

2017 – Mark Selby (Winner). Selby came here as the standalone favourite on the back of a mediocre season by his own standards but having won the China Open a few weeks earlier. Judd Trump was touching joint favourite with a couple of firms keeping faith or wanting bets just like in 2013. The match of the tournament was Selby’s semi-final win over Ding Junhui, who was beginning to look like it might be his time after a memorable win in the Quarter Final over Ronnie O’Sullivan. But Selby’s granite proved too much for him and in the end also for a tired looking John Higgins who again featured in the final after a few years away from the one table set up. Selby coming back after a first day slump 18-15, landing the 7/2 favourites tag for the first time since his opponent did it in 2011.

2018 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Round 2 Loser). Once again, O’Sullivan returned to the mantle of favourite and once again, he failed to justify it. A fine season leading into the big one had his fans hopes up but once he got to Sheffield he once again came up short, losing a bad tempered match to Ali Carter, who gained some revenge for the two final defeats Ronnie had inflicted on him. The winner however was another ‘Phoenix from the Flames’ in the shape of Mark Williams, who miraculously completed one of the sports great comebacks and beat his fellow veteran John Higgins in a pulsating final. The less said about the press conference afterwards, the better.

2019 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Round 1 Loser). Again the mantle of bookies favourite proved the undoing of O’Sullivan, paired against amateur James Cahill in Round 1 most expected a flying start for the bang in form Rocket, but it wasn’t to be. He claimed later to be feeling unwell but in reality he would have had to produce some consistently spectacular stuff to see off the eventual winner and first time champion Judd Trump, who stormed to victory with some stunning snooker.

2020 – Judd Trump (Losing Quarter Finalist). Despite the overwhelming evidence of the Crucible Curse, the bookmakers saw no clear alternative to Judd defending his title successfully in what can easily be labelled the strangest World Championship on record. Played in summer, mostly behind closed doors amid the grip of a global pandemic, it’s something of a miracle we got a champion at all. But we did, in the shape of that man O’Sullivan again, clearly much more at home without the gaze of the rabble than others, the Rocket coasted to victory in the final after a dramatic semi-final against Selby.

 

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So, the figures as they stand are since 1981:

Winning Favourites (Including Joint Favourites): 15

Losing Favourites (Including Joint Favourites): 26

Most Successful Favourites: Steve Davis (6 wins out of 9 attempts) and Stephen Hendry (6 out of 9).

Least Successful Favourite: Ronnie O’Sullivan (2 wins out of 14 attempts).

Most Successful Non-Favourite: Ronnie O’Sullivan (4 times winner when not favourite)

Clear Favourites who have lost in Round 1: Ronnie O’Sullivan (three times), Stephen Hendry (once), Steve Davis (once).

Co/Joint Favorites who have lost in Round 1: Neil Robertson (once).

Victims of The Crucible Curse: John Spencer (1978), Ray Reardon (1979), Terry Griffiths (1980), Cliff Thorburn (1981), Steve Davis (1982), Alex Higgins (1983), Dennis Taylor (1986), Joe Johnson (1987), Stephen Hendry (1991), John Parrott (1992), Ken Doherty (1998), John Higgins (1999), Mark Williams (2001), Ronnie O’Sullivan (2002), Peter Ebdon (2003), Shaun Murphy (2006), Graeme Dott (2007), Neil Robertson (2011), Mark Selby (2015), Stuart Bingham (2016), Judd Trump (2020)….

Defeaters of The Crucible Curse: NOBODY. EVER.

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker https://www.snookerbacker.com/2021/04/06/in-conversation-with-ronnie-osullivan/​

April 6, 2021​

In Conversation with……Ronnie O’Sullivan​

Filed under:

• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 3:01 pm
The restraining order was lifted a few weeks ago so today I got a chance to catch up with snooker’s main man and current World Champion Ronnie, ahead of his title defence beginning. Amongst other things we talked about Liverpool and an urban myth, what it’s like to be a famous face, his thoughts ahead of Sheffield, his recent cue issues and who he’d invite to his ultimate dinner party…..

SB: Alright Ronnie, how’s tricks?

ROS: I’m fine mate, all good.

SB: Did you manage to catch the Hendry match against Jimmy last night?

ROS: I watched a little bit of it, I didn’t see it all as I was busy doing some bits and pieces.
SB: What do you think of the result? Do you think it will hurt Jimmy a bit?

ROS: Yeah, he just really still cares so much and wants to do well so he’ll definitely be hurt by that, but that’s just the way it goes isn’t it?

SB: What do you think about the whole Hendry thing? I suppose he retired in his early 40’s, a bit younger than you are now, can you ever see yourself retiring and then coming back for another try?

ROS: What, have 9 years off?

SB: Well maybe not that long.

ROS: No, I can’t see myself doing that, I’d hope after a couple of years out I’d have found something else to do so when I pack in it will be for good, but it’s his call and if he wants to do it then fair play to him.

SB: As you know I’m from the great city of Liverpool, now you’ve got a bit of an affinity with Liverpool haven’t you? How did that come about?

ROS: I just had a group of friends from Liverpool and I used to go up there and go out and I liked it so much I stayed there for a couple of years. I’ve got strong ties to Liverpool, it’s like a second home to me really. I used to play at George Scott’s Club on Derby Lane and George and Violet were so kind to me, amazing people who treated me like family, I had great times there, probably the happiest times of my life looking back.

SB: I played a frame with you there once, but I don’t really want to talk about that….

ROS: OK, I can’t remember that but I’m sure it was close.

 

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SB: Yes, I’m happy with that. It was definitely close. Anyway, can you clear something up? This is either something I have made up, something someone else made up and became an urban myth or it’s true. When you lived here, did you stay above The Rocket pub?

ROS: Stay above it? No no, I think you must have made that up. I know where you mean, I stayed around there, around the corner but I didn’t stay above it.

SB: Well everyone here thinks it’s true anyway so that’s an exclusive.

ROS: Haha, well OK then it must be.

SB: Moving on to snooker. Sometimes when I speak to and hear snooker players talking I get the impression that they’d rather be something else, like a golfer or something, so what is it like being a snooker player? Do you enjoy it?

ROS: I enjoy the benefits of snooker, I get to travel, I get to stay in nice hotels, I get to see different friends on different weeks. The playing side of it, not so much, I like practice and I like exhibitions but I think sometimes tournaments get a bit too serious for me and I sometimes just want to have a bit of fun, I try to expose myself as little or as much as I feel like I need to in matches, but I suppose that’s the bit you have to put up with to enjoy the good side.

SB: Do you like being famous?

ROS: I’d rather not be famous, if you’d have asked me when I was 16 if I wanted to be famous I’d have said yes, but now at 45 I’d rather not be noticed when I go out and when that happens it’s quite a nice feeling.

SB: It’s quite ironic that you are one of the players that has adapted best to the crowdless situation given you are snooker’s biggest attraction. You seem to have found it quite easy to adapt to the silent surroundings, how have you done that?

ROS: I just think that the game doesn’t change, it’s like club practice conditions, like the football, it’s like a practice match. I know a couple have struggled a bit but it’s invariably the same people winning the tournaments as most other years.

SB: On the flip side we have Jordan Brown? Do you think he would have performed so well with a crowd?

ROS: I think Jordan would have won a tournament at some point as he’s always been a great player, it just all fell into place for him on that week, that can sometimes just happen. I don’t think you can say anyone won because of this or that, they won because they were the best player over that week of snooker.

 

[church66]

SB: How do you feel about The Crucible being used as a COVID test event? Potentially 1000 people a day in there?

ROS: I don’t really care to be honest, I’m looking forward to the chance to run and explore different routes, see my friends there and a bit of al fresco dining coming into play, I’m looking forward to it actually, hope the weather is nice. If it’s anything like last year it should be a great time in Sheffield.

SB: How’s the cue?

ROS: Yeah, I’ve had some repair work done to it, John (Parris) and Paul have done a great job getting the cue back to virtually 95% of what it was so I’m happy with that, I also managed to find a good spare cue which is what I really wanted so that if something goes wrong with mine I can always use that as a substitute.

SB: Had you damaged it in some way? What was the problem?

ROS: Nah, it’s just that every ten years you need a good service on it, chop a bit off, add a bit on, change the balance, just a proper piece of work like an Formula One car where they feel the balance isn’t right. I was worried I’d not get it back to anywhere like how it was, but even at it’s worst it was playable, but with the improvements made to it now I’ve had a result really.

SB: OK, a couple of Twitter questions now, firstly from Alex, he wants to know what you would say to your 20 year old self if you had the chance to meet, errmm, you.

ROS: I’d tell him to educate himself, become wise and wordly, look outside the box and use any little advantage you can.

SB: Do you think you’d have listened?

ROS: Probably not!

SB: Last one, someone else asked for your ultimate four dinner party guests?

ROS: Ermm, Stephen Fry, Damien Hirst, Steve Peters and errmm Barry Hawkins.

SB: I had a tenner on Ali Carter. Oh well, Barry will be pleased anyway. Thanks for the chat Ronnie and best of luck in Sheffield.

ROS: No worries, take care and say hi to everyone in Liverpool.

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker : https://www.snookerbacker.com/​

April 21, 2021​

World Championship Last 16 Preview​

Filed under:

• Snooker Betting
• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 2:08 pm

Once 16 players have progressed and 16 are out of the way, it’s time to look forward to the second round which gets underway on Thursday to a notional 50% crowd, though based on the take up in Round 1, I’d not get too excited about that.

Anyway, these are obviously now played over the best of 25 over three sessions, just click on the match to take you to the head to head stats and the safe haven for all anoraks that is Cue Tracker.

Match previews will be completed once all match ups are known and the bookies have priced them up.

TABLE 1

Ronnie O’Sullivan v Anthony McGill

Thurs 1pm, Fri 10am/7pm

Ronnie took a while to get going in Round One against Mark Joyce, whether that was down to his own mood or the fact the table was playing badly in the first session I don’t know but what is for certain is that when he did get going he looked as good as ever and that is a good sign for his fans. He told Rob afterwards that the fans had ‘plenty more to look forward to’ which knowing Ronnie is a cryptic way of him saying that he’s here to defend his title successfully, but who knows? As for McGill, he did what he had to do against Ricky Walden who doesn’t really seem to be able to raise his game to the level he used to these days and McGill pulled away impressively at the end and never looked like losing. The head to heads here show that in six attempts, the Scot is yet to beat Ronnie but we know that McGill tends to save his best form for The Crucible and they have never met here. I think the clues are there that Ronnie is bang up for this and fancies his chances of retaining the title so I’d not rush in to back against him just yet. This has a feel of a match where O’Sullivan takes command at the start and McGill never quite gets back on level terms.

PREDICTION: O’Sullivan 13-7

BETS: O’Sullivan -4.5 frames at 5/6. Over 4.5 centuries in the match at 10/11.

Stuart Bingham v Jamie Jones

Sun 10am/7pm, Mon 1pm

Heralded on the BBC as being a ‘massive shock’ Jamie Jones came from 3-1 down to absolutely steamroller Stephen Maguire in the last round, looking exactly the same determined, tenacious and busy player that he looked when he qualified. To me at least, that result was very predictable and far from the skyscraper shocker that some may pretend it was. Bingham came through the mill in a three session thriller against Ding and it’s the two qualifiers who do battle for a Quarter Final place. Avid readers and followers will know that I think Jones may be this year’s Gilbert/Gary Wilson/McGill (delete as appropriate) and I’m still convinced that he’s got the game to really make a name for himself in this. Bingham remains one of the biggest names in the sport and his scoring of late has been extremely impressive so I expect this to be a fast paced high scoring affair. Of the two in the first round I think Jamie made less mistakes but Stuart looked the more comfortable in the balls so it’s a really tough one to call. The bookies make Bingham a very heavy favourite, I don’t think it’s anything like that clear cut so that to me means there is some value out there.

PREDICTION: Jones 13-11

BET: Jones -1.5 frames at 11/4. Bingham over 2.5 centuries in the match at 11/10.

John Higgins v Mark Williams

Fri 2.30pm, Sat 10am/7pm

What more can be said about these two that hasn’t already been said? 29 years as professionals and still at the top of the sport. Many may have believed that their last epic encounter here in 2018 when Williams made off with the trophy on his way to a season long bender was to be their last, but no, three years later they are here again and both have live and realistic aspirations of landing yet another title to their tally. Of the two, Williams was most impressive in the first round, Higgins was uncharacteristically poor but I think it’s unlikely that he’ll play like that again, if he does, it goes without saying that he’ll lose. Williams seems very relaxed, confident even in so much as talking up his chances for a change. He’s still a fantastic asset to the sport and even though he has his critics for his negative break-off shot you can’t underestimate his thought patterns behind it, he is doing it for a reason that he thinks benefits him and to hell with the critics. I think they’ll again bring out the best in each other here and to me Williams has the look of a player with another big run on his mind.

PREDICTION: Williams 13-11

BET: Williams to win at 6/4. Over 22.5 frames in the match at 11/10

Mark Allen v Mark Selby/Kurt Maflin

Sat 2.30pm, Sun 2.30pm, Mon 7pm

PREDICTION:

BET:

TABLE 2

Neil Robertson v Jack Lisowski

Thurs 7pm, Fri 2.30pm, Sat 10am

The head to head record between these two shows that in 5 attempts, Jack is yet to get the better of Neil with their last meeting being over 19 frames in the recent Tour Championship with Robbo coming out a comfortable 10-5 winner. Jack is another who came through a really tense first round and the way he held himself together in the decider against Ali Carter shows how much he’s developing as a player in the more tense situations. Neil on the other hand did an absolute demolition job on Liang and looks very much like he’s bringing his recent form here with him to the main event. Neil is a heavy favourite to win this match and on that this time I agree with the bookies, Jack, despite his impressive win, was still missing balls against Carter which he won’t get away with missing here, he’s also not in the same county as Neil when it comes to the tactical side of things. I think the only way Jack can beat Neil here is by playing near on no miss snooker for three sessions and that is a very tall order for anyone.

PREDICTION: Robertson 13-7

BET: Over 4.5 centuries in the match at 5/6.

Barry Hawkins v Kyren Wilson

Fri 10am/7pm, Sat 2.30pm

Two of the most consistent Crucible performers meet up in what is likely to be a very high quality encounter judging by their first round form. I’ve been so impressed with Kyren recently, the one part of his overall game that was lacking, the heavy scoring, is now well and truly fixed and I can’t actually think of any weakness in his game. He can score, he is tactially astute and his temperament is superb. As for Barry, I’ve been guilty in the past a few times of underestimating him and it’s come back to bite me on the backside. He hardly missed a ball when let in against Selt, OK Selt had lots of chances early on in frames so Barry will need to tighten up on that side of things, but when he missed the Hawk well and truly swooped and won deceptively easily if you just take the scoreline at face value. I think Kyren just has the edge here but these two are really evenly matched so I’d not bother with the match odds, instead I can’t see any way that this won’t be close.

PREDICTION: Wilson 13-12

BET: Over 22.5 frames in the match at Evens. Kyren to make more than 2 centuries at 11/8.

Shaun Murphy/Dark Mavis v Yan Bingtao

Sat 7pm, Sun 2.30pm, Mon 7pm

PREDICTION:

BET:

Dave Gilbert v Judd Trump

Sun 10am/7pm, Mon 1pm

Another potentially mouth-watering second rounder if Dave Gilbert can carry over his first round form to a meeting with the championship favourite. The first round was the best Gilbert has played all season and he seemed to be thoroughly satisfied with himself afterwards. As with Mark Allen, sometimes a quiet (let’s not beat about the bush, not very good) season can focus the mind and he’ll approach this match I’m sure with a ‘nothing to lose, everything to gain’ attitude and that makes him dangerous. Judd was eager to stress (three times in about two minutes) that he wants to play ‘with a smile on his face’ this year, he’s not making a very good job of it as he still doesn’t always look that happy out there but perhaps I’m taking this too literally. Expect a wide open attacking match with plenty of frames decided in one visit.

PREDICTION: Trump 13-11

BET: Gilbert +4.5 frames at 5/4

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker : https://www.snookerbacker.com/

Snookerbacker​

April 21, 2021​

World Championship Last 16 Preview​

Filed under:

• Snooker Betting
• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 2:08 pm

Updates to the above thread.....

Mark Allen v Mark Selby

Sat 2.30pm, Sun 2.30pm, Mon 7pm

The immediate thing you notice on the head to head stats between these two is that of the 12 times they have faced each other, no fewer than 7 times they have gone to a decider, with the 6-5 scoreline being an incredibly regular outcome. On first round showings there is also little to choose between them with them both scoring runaway wins to get here, so all the evidence points to another very close match here. Allen was my pick to make it out of this half at the beginning and I don’t see any reason to change my mind but whoever emerges from this as the winner is obviously a massive contender to win it, Selby looked more or less back to his best but he wasn’t tested in the first round and Allen’s opponent similarly offered little resistance so they both come into this fresh and unscathed. Sit back and enjoy.

PREDICTION: Allen 13-12

BET: Over 22.5 frames in the match at 11/10

Shaun Murphy v Yan Bingtao

Sat 7pm, Sun 2.30pm, Mon 7pm

Masters Champion Yan made his Crucible debut 4 years ago against Murphy, he gave him a bit of a scare but the seed emerged on that occasion a 10-7 winner. A lot has changed since then and Murphy has had a quiet season while his opponent has been busy scooping up his first triple crown win, presumably of many. The last time they met was over a year ago and Yan dished out a right old pasting to Shaun so there is a score to settle on Murphy’s part to cancel out that Crucible first rounder. This is another that I think will go very close and might be decided with not many frames to spare. I think Yan looked the stronger of the two in his first round performance so on the strength of that alone I’ll side with him to just nick it.

PREDICTION: Yan 13-10

BET: No Bet.

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker : https://www.snookerbacker.com/ :​

Snookerbacker​

April 26, 2021​

World Championship Quarter Finals Preview​

Filed under:

• Snooker Betting
• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 3:04 pm

Who will make the one table situation?
We’ve now reached the last eight stage and although there is a general feel that this has not yet been one of the classic championships of recent times that can all change if we get some memorable matches from here on in.
Off the table and before I get to the match previews, the big news is that I managed to get my Twitter account suspended last Saturday for a week, which can only be described as careless.
The crime for which I have been accused and convicted in the space of around 10 seconds without access to legal advice actually had nothing whatsoever to do with snooker. I merely pointed out that anyone who starts making loads of noise in the garden with power tools when it’s sunny should be rounded up and shot.
Clearly only someone utterly insane would believe that I actually meant this, but these algorithms don’t have a sense of humour. The idea that I was truly advocating the shooting of people for this is both inaccurate and unfair. Why would I do this when it’s much easier and far less messy to just administer a lethal injection?
Anyway, you can now follow me on this Twitter account until I’m allowed off the naughty step for the final.
Remember to click on the match to take you to the head to head record.
Anthony McGill v Stuart Bingham
Tues 10am/7pm, Wed 2.30pm
There were plenty of connotations in terms of who would meet in this round from this section and I’m not sure many would have picked these two to be battling it out for a place in the semi-finals. McGill withstood all that Ronnie could throw at him in the final session and his clearance to win was unflappable, he is quickly developing into the Pokerface of snooker and it’s a real asset to have under these intense conditions. Bingham seems destined to win the ‘worst walk on tune ever’ trophy at the end of this but that’s not the only title he’s got his sights on and he starts a marginal favourite for the match. In terms of a winner, I’d not touch this, it’s far too evenly balanced to plump 100% on one of them, I think I marginally favour Bingham if it goes close but with no confidence really. The way he is scoring though the 8/11 on him to make the highest break of the match makes more appeal to me than backing him to win and the 6/5 on him making more than 2 centuries looks too big to me.
PREDICTION: Bingham 13-10
Mark Williams v Mark Selby/Allen
Tues 2.30pm, Wed 10am/7pm
PREDICTION:
Neil Robertson v Kyren Wilson
Tues 10am/7pm, Wed 10am
The head to head here reads 2-2 but it’s noticeable that in their last two meetings the score in frames is Kyren 11, Robbo 2, this includes a 5-0 drubbing in the 2020 Welsh Open so it’s clear that Kyren will go into this rightly feeling he’s in with a big chance. Both have been really impressive in the early rounds so I’m a bit surprised what a heavy favourite the bookies make Neil. I suppose one worry for Kyren’s camp may be the way he was limbering up his neck throughout his last 16 tie with Hawkins and he was clearly in some discomfort towards the end of the match. Robbo has no such malfunctions and his game when tested is proving up for the job so far. The obvious bets here involve the number of century breaks being high, but how often have we approached a match expecting a tonfest only to end up with a cagey tactical affair? I don’t think it will be as one sided as the bookies seem to be suggesting so if you fancy them both reaching double figures in frames which I think is perfectly possible, you’ll find 5/4 on there being over 22 frames in the match appealing.
PREDICTION: Wilson 13-11
Shaun Murphy/Yan Bingtao v Judd Trump
Tues 2.30pm, Wed 2.30pm/7pm
PREDICTION:
http://www.parriscues.com/


Updates when available .

 

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Snookerbacker : https://www.snookerbacker.com/​

April 26, 2021​

World Championship Quarter Finals Preview​

Filed under:

• Snooker Betting
• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 3:04 pm

Mark Williams v Mark Selby

Tues 2.30pm, Wed 10am/7pm

Another classic match up here between the two Mark’s in form. Williams floating around the table in his customary carefree manner knocking them in from all angles and Selby, dismantling opponents like a small inquisitive child taking a train set apart to see how it all works before carefully putting it back together again to a higher specification. The way they are both playing reminds me of the way they both play when they win this which makes this a very difficult match to predict as it could easily be a runaway victory for one of them or an absolute classic which is decided by the odd shot at the end. They’ve met plenty of times over the years but have only met here once, way back in 2006 long before Selby became the force in the game he is now, it took Selby 5 tries before he could finally beat Williams but since then he has the upper hand in the head to heads, including most recently a 6-4 win in the Players Championship a couple of months ago. I’d like Williams to win as he’s still my favourite player to watch and as with every year since he won it, I backed him months ago, but Selby in this form is a very tough proposition.

PREDICTION: Selby 13-10

Shaun Murphy v Judd Trump

Tues 2.30pm, Wed 2.30pm/7pm

These two met at this stage back in 2013 and produced a very dramatic spectacle which saw Judd run out a 13-12 winner so given the feel of the lack of dramatic finishes this year it would make a nice late Wednesday evening thriller most welcome if they can do that again please. Murphy has been very impressive in his opening two matches and from speaking to him I know that he’s really enjoying the whole Sheffield experience having been a player who it’s fair to say, has struggled with the ‘no crowd at Keynes’ tour this season. It’s clear that this is making a huge difference to his game and now he gets a pop at the favourite to win it. Judd’s been clinical so far without really doing anything special, you can easily point to his opponents bad form but there is usually a reason that this happens, mainly that the player in the ascendancy is putting you bang under it. I did tip up Judd to justify the odds in the main preview and also predicted he’d face Murphy at this stage but now is where we’ll truly find out if he really should be clear favourite in a field where everyone left in it has brought their A+ game with them. I think this one could produce the drama we have been craving.

PREDICTION: Judd 13-12


Snookerbacker updates .

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker : https://www.snookerbacker.com/ :​

April 29, 2021​

World Championship Semi-Finals​

Filed under:

• Snooker Betting
• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 8:11 am

Table for two.
A rather lacklustre World Championship so far sparked into life on Wednesday with the conclusion of the quarter finals with two of them going very close, so we’re now set up to see four Englishmen battle it out over the next three days to see who can make the two day final.
This first day of the semi finals always bothers me a bit I have to say, I understand that the table fitters have to move through the night to transform The Crucible from it’s previous guise to the one table situation but I’d still prefer there to be three sessions today with one of the semi-finals reaching the half way stage rather than backloading them on Saturday.
It’s a bit of a nothing day today and having both matches have just their final session on Saturday seems a much fairer schedule than the bottom half semi potentially having to play as many as 15 frames the day before the final with a morning and an evening session. It seems a little unfair on the winner of that match going into the final if they’ve had a late night the night before, not just playing, but with all the media demands and moody BBC montage film shoots that follow their win.
Anyway, as people say these days ‘it is what it is’, which to me is a really irritating phrase only used by people who either can’t be arsed changing things or haven’t got the intellectual capacity to at least have a conversation about it.
It is what it is because it is and you can’t be arsed thinking about changing it.
Anyway, another thing that ‘is what it is’ is my current period of reflection which is my Twitter suspension. This lifts in time for the conclusion of the semi-finals on Saturday, in the meantime you can follow me here where you will be able to find out in real time when the century of centuries bet flagged up at 17/2 at the start of the championship lands, my guess being that this will happen before a ball is struck in the final. With us needing only ten more for the remainder of the championship the bookies will have had to break into the arena armed with spanners for it not to land now surely Shirley?
Right, let’s have a look at the matches. Click on the match to take you to the previous head to head encounters courtesy of the anorak heaven at Cue Tracker.
Semi Final 1 Stuart Bingham v Mark Selby
Thursday 1pm, Friday 10am/7pm, Saturday 2.30pm
Stuart Bingham has already used up all the frames in two of his matches here and it doesn’t get any easier as he lines up to face the new championship favourite Selby. In the preview to the Williams bulldozer job I described Selby as being similar to an inquisitive child dismantling a train set to discover it’s inner workings, well he’s now moved through this phase and is now operating on small animals to fix them and see how organs work, but in the case of Williams he forgot to resuscitate. The way Selby is playing nobody left in this field will beat him, it’s just a case of how many he will win by, but The Crucible does strange things and there is always the possibility that he’ll throw in a bad session just when his opponent is stepping on the accelerator. I think that’s the only way he can be beaten in this match, for Stuart to have a session of no-miss snooker and keep him at bay from then on. The one thing however that Stuart can take into this is his previous record against Mark, which is pretty good. But I think Selby still feels he has a score to settle after last year’s championship when he was clearly thoroughly cheesed off with how Ronnie treated both him and the game towards the end of their semi-final. I’d bet if you asked him he’d rather have been playing O’Sullivan here to get his revenge.
Prediction: Selby 17-9
Bet: Bingham to have the highest break of the match at 5/4
Semi Final 2 Kyren Wilson v Shaun Murphy
Thursday 7pm, Friday 2.30pm, Saturday 10am/7pm
The final of the 2020 Welsh Open is a memory that Kyren Wilson will want to remove from his thoughts as he steps into the arena to face a rejuvenated Shaun Murphy. A 9-1 drubbing in that being the latest in Shaun’s series of wins over The Warrior. If you discount Wilson’s 2-0 win in a recent Mickey Mouse event at Milton Keynes, he’s not beaten Shaun in nearly a decade although they’ve never played anything like a match of this prestige before. Kyren is definitely a Crucible player these days, much like Barry Hawkins of old and Anthony McGill he inevitably turns on his A game whenever he emerges from behind the curtain. Murphy on the other hand is very much a player who just needs a crowd to show off to, wherever that might be. His game has suffered badly during lockdown in terms of results but as he made clear after beating Judd, it’s meant he’s had time with Chris Henry to fix things and he’s clearly found something that he’d been lacking just at the right time. We could see another thriller here come Super Saturday night and it’s impossible to call if it goes to the wire. But I’ll side with Kyren just based on how he’s been closing out matches, I think to win, Shaun will need to have a decent lead going into the final session.
Prediction: Wilson 17-13
Bet: Wilson -2.5 frames at 5/4

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker was back but I missed the post.....

https://www.snookerbacker.com/ :

Snookerbacker​

August 31, 2021​

Calling all Players and Coaches​

Filed under:

• Blog News
• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 10:32 am
Are you a snooker player or a snooker coach looking to increase your existing traffic? Perhaps as a player you are considering doing some coaching regionally to bump up your earnings or perhaps you are starting out as a coach and need to drum up business?
Whatever your situation one thing that you need is a strong web presence. I’ve recently set up a webpage for none other than Nottingham’s finest Michael Holt, you can take a look at it here. If you like what you see then get in touch and I’ll do the same for you for a one-off annual fee.
What you will get:

• An exclusive homepage for your coaching with as much or as little details as you want on there and up to 4 images. This could include rates, locations, levels of ability etc.
• A guaranteed 24/7 presence online and a bespoke page that you can attach to all your social media outlets and any flyers or business cards you have made.
• On launch, a social media campaign to drive people to your page via Twitter and Facebook, currently amassing a total of over 17,000 followers.

All this for a one-off annual fee of just £75, payable on launch.
Interested? If so contact me at snookerbacker@ymail.com

 

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Eminem Song Guess Who's Back. ?​

After a year out the one and only snookerbacker is back !

 

[church66]

April 11, 2022​

World Championship: The Fate of the Favourites – A Potted History :​

https://www.snookerbacker.com/

April 11, 2022​

World Championship: The Fate of the Favourites – A Potted History​

Filed under:

• Snooker Betting
• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 8:00 pm

With the World Championship just around the corner, it’s once again time to revamp an old archive post and take a look at how well the favourites at the bookies in the big event have fared down the years.
When you look back at the history books you find that the bookies have given remarkably few players the accolade of World Championship favourite as the years have passed, Ronnie O’Sullivan has now held that accolade a record 13 times in his career, but this year it’s the turn of the man in form and 2010 champion Neil Robertson.
The World Championship has now been a Crucible staple since before some people reading this were born and it’s also long been associated with us all liking a good old bet on the winner. But how many times has the main favourite obliged? Is it more common for an outsider to steal the crown and are there any players out there who just don’t seem to like being the chased rather than the chaser?
Well, let’s take a look and see…
The 80’s were predictably dominated by Steve Davis, who started favourite for this and every other championship every year from 1981 to 1989. That honour/pressure then reverted to Stephen Hendry, whose 90’s titles mostly justified favouritism, though interestingly he did win one when not the strongest fancy in the field, just as Ronnie has done many times since.
It was then the turn of O’Sullivan to assume the mantle of the man the bookies both loved and feared, he started favourite for the title 9 times between the years 2000 and 2009, since when we’ve seen other names start as the bookies one to beat, until nine years ago when Ronnie was back at the top of the odds list where he remained until 2017, when Selby replaced him as the chased. Since then it’s been a combination of Selby, Ronnie and Judd Trump, who finally ended his wait for the title in 2019. But this year it’s Robertson, so what can history tell us?
So how have they got on? Well, after painstaking research I think I have managed to capture every favourite since 1981, the year a red-hot, red-haired favourite started his 80’s reign of baize dominance.
1981 – Steve Davis (Winner). Despite never having won the World Championship, Davis came into the sport’s main event as a hot favourite. He was to justify the bookies faith in him, beating Doug Mountjoy in the final after seeing off his main challenger that year, reigning champion Cliff Thorburn, in the semi-finals.
1982 – Steve Davis (1st Round Loser). This was the first year that the championship adopted its current format of 32 players in Round 1, it also interestingly started on Friday evening in a bid to boost ratings. This format change resulted in the biggest shock of the decade, Davis, an odds-on favourite and winning machine, suffering the newly found ‘Curse of the Crucible’ and losing the Friday session 8-1 before going out first round 10-1 to Bolton Stud Tony Knowles. Alex Higgins picked up the trophy and his daughter Lauren in one of the sports most memorable championships.
1983 and 1984 – Steve Davis (Winner/Winner). The bookies love affair with Davis continued as he put the Knowles defeat out of his mind to win the championship and almost everything else for the next two years. He had just one close match in ’83 against Dennis Taylor but other than that dominated the tournament, winning the final with a session to spare. 1984 wasn’t such a procession and saw the up and coming Jimmy ‘Whirlwind’ White nearly carry off a great final comeback, but Davis prevailed 18-16 in the first of Jimmy’s many final defeats.
1985 and 1986 – Steve Davis (Runner Up/Runner Up). Davis was still starting World Championships as very short priced (in ’85 he was odds-on) favourite but his backers suffered a temporary disruption to normal service in the period that Steve was basically winning almost everything else, re-writing the record books and making stacks for him and his manager Barry Hearn. Defeat on the final black at the hands of Dennis Taylor (who never really mentions it these days) and a year later to rank 150/1 outsider Joe Johnson meant he’d failed twice more to justify the bookies faith in him. But at least his loss to Dennis and his upside down glasses in front of a record sporting viewing TV audience in that famous final did inspire a great verse of Snooker Loopy. Every cloud….
1987, 1988, 1989 – Steve Davis (Winner/Winner/Winner). Despite what went before, the bookies and nearly everyone else on the planet knew we hadn’t seen the end of Davis. He remained short priced favourite and his magnificent treble meant he was the first player of the Crucible era to win three on the spin. Final wins over Johnson who remains the man who has come closest to breaking the first time champion Crucible Curse (2 frames ahead of Ken Doherty), Terry Griffiths and an absolute steamroller job on John Parrott cemented his place as the king of 80’s snooker. But the bookies were sensing this might be his swansong…..
1990 – Stephen Hendry (Winner). Young Scot Hendry started the 1990 Championship as UK and Masters Champion, having beaten Davis over the longer distance in the UK Final. The bookies had once again called it correctly and The Wonderbairn’s first title was secured, the final saw a win over his early 1990’s sparring partner, the luckless Jimmy White.

Hendry was usually pretty reliable, with the odd blip.
1991 – Stephen Hendry (Quarter-Finalist). The Curse of the Crucible? Not on your nelly, the bookies laughed off this idea by making winning-machine Hendry a firm favourite to retain his title. But dark forces were at work as Brummie Biker Steve James unexpectedly ran over Hendry in the Quarter Finals. Scouser John Parrott was to take his one and only title defeating that man Jimmy White in the final.
1992-1996 – Stephen Hendry (Winner, Winner, Winner, Winner, Winner). There’s not really much more to add to that is there? Starts hot favourite every year and wins five on the bounce, beating Jimmy a further 3 times (don’t mention 1994) as well as Nigel Bond and Peter Ebdon. This was truly a period of pure dominance, the like of which we will probably never see again.
1997 – Stephen Hendry (Runner-Up). Hendry’s quest for a six-timer may have been what the bookies thought would happen, but the ever-popular and jovial Ken Doherty had other ideas and defied the odds to prevail 18-12 to let Stephen know for the first time what it felt like to be the runner-up.
1998 – Stephen Hendry (1st Round Loser). Hendry became only the second bookies favourite ever to lose in Round 1. His match up against Jimmy White giving Jimmy the chance to shine one last time against his old foe, unfortunately for him in the first, not the last round. Sadly for his millions of fans he couldn’t sustain the form and it was John Higgins who won his first world title and became instantly many people’s idea of the next man in line to dominate snooker, beating the valiant reigning champion Doherty in the final.
1999 – John Higgins (Losing Semi-Finalist). Holder of the UK Championship and the Masters as well as defending champion, Higgins was surely the one to break the Crucible Curse? But it wasn’t to be as Hendry returned to reclaim the rights to the decade that belonged to him, for once not as the bookies main man, he defeated Mark Williams to claim his record-breaking seventh title. What an amazing achievement this truly was from the sport’s greatest ever champion.

 

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2000 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (1st Round Loser). A new name at the top of the bookies list was now materialising. But the explosive talent of Ronnie O’Sullivan, a marginal favourite in an open betting heat which also saw Higgins, Williams and Hendry well backed was beaten first round. Who by you may ask? Snookerbacker Classic Champion 2013, David Gray, that’s who. It was Welshman Mark Williams who was to claim his first World Championship with a win over fellow Taffy Matthew Stevens.

2001 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Winner) / John Higgins (Runner-Up) – Joint Favourites. The bookies couldn’t split them and in the end only four frames could in a year that went true to form. O’Sullivan taking his first World Championship after his two closest contemporaries Higgins and Williams. Williams himself falling foul of the old Crucible Curse, losing in the second round to Joe Swail.

2002 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Losing Semi-Finalist). Those bookies never learn do they? The Crucible Curse is real and Ronnie proved that again in 2002. He lost in the semi-finals to Hendry, who reached an incredible ninth world final. He couldn’t make it a historic Hendry the Eighth though and lost to Peter Ebdon in a dramatic decider to avenge his final defeat of 1996. This was to be Stephen’s last final, even he couldn’t maintain this level consistently anymore.

2003 – 2007 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (1st Round Loser/Winner/Losing Quarter Finalist/ Losing Semi-Finalist/Losing Quarter Finalist). Through the years Ronnie has proved himself the most prolific, least successful favourite in Crucible history. No other player has failed to justify favouritism more times than him. Only once in this five year sequence did he justify the punter’s confidence, making him, at least until recently, someone who was proving very costly to back at The Crucible. Two new champions in this era emerged in the form of Shaun Murphy in 2005 and Graeme Dott in 2006.

2008 – John Higgins (Round 2 Loser). Higgins failed to justify the renewed faith the bookies put in him in 2008 and instead, Ronnie, now not quite the warm order he had been the previous 8 years was to claim his third crown, defeating Ali Carter in a fairly one-sided final, this continued a bad run for favourites during the Noughties.

2009 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Round 2 Loser). This was the last year until his resurgence more recently that Ronnie started clear favourite, he lost early on again, this time in an epic match against Mark Allen. This meant that of the nine times Ronnie had started Crucible favourite with the bookies, he had only won the title twice. Perhaps he preferred being the underdog? John Higgins claimed the title a third time to draw level with O’Sullivan in championship wins.


Rocked Higgins in 2010.
2010 – John Higgins (Round 2 Loser). This was the year which saw Neil Robertson storm to victory and the pre-tournament favourite and defending champion get himself into something of a pickle with the newspapers. Steve Davis time-travelled in a DeLorean into this year from the 80’s to claim Higgins’ scalp in Round 2, which still remains an amazing Crucible tale. Robertson beat Graeme Dott in a marathon final, played unfortunately under something of a cloud in dark days for the sport. But in brighter news, his 14/1 triumph paid for a large chunk of mine and Mrs SB’s wedding making him a firm favourite of ours, even if he wasn’t with the bookies.

2011 – John Higgins (Winner). It was an altogether different Higgins who entered the arena in 2011, having returned from his ban and after the loss of his father he had looked in superb form with a new found determination and purpose to his game. From the off he looked like justifying the bookie’s faith in him and he duly did in true Higgins style, breaking the pattern of losing favourites along the way and beating a new kid on the block, Judd Trump, in the final. He now led Ronnie 4-3 in title wins in their own personal battle.

2012 – Judd Trump (Round 2 Loser). Judd’s Crucible performance the previous year and the fanfare which surrounded him was enough to convince the bookies that he should start favourite marginally ahead of Mark Selby, Neil Robertson, John Higgins and Ronnie O’Sullivan. O’Sullivan however proved too good for the field and under the influence of Dr Steve Peters looked a different player to the unreliable and inconsistent one of the previous decade or so. Bear in mind however that he wasn’t favourite to win or widely fancied with many citing his inability to stay focused for the full duration of the tournament. After his triumph, clearly exhausted, he vowed to have a lot of time off, a promise he was to keep. He once again beat Ali Carter in a final which he described afterwards as being the best he had ever played.

2013 – Mark Selby / Neil Robertson / Judd Trump (Round 2 Loser/Round 1 Loser/Losing Semi-Finalist). O’Sullivan’s now legendary return to the baize after a season off saw him take his fifth title largely untroubled and never headed in any match, this also meant he overtook Higgins again in their own game of world championship leapfrog. He was available as long as 9/1 a few weeks before the tournament and many claimed he had ‘no chance’ of simply returning after a year off and winning again. But he did just that, beating Barry Hawkins in the final.

2014 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Runner-up). As Ronnie attempted the treble the bookies by now had wised up to him and made him the shortest priced favourite for many years. He’d been playing more events and going into this in strong form, unlike the previous year when he hadn’t played at all in the run up. But it wasn’t to be and the final against Mark Selby was to prove one step too far for The Rocket as Selby became the first new champion since Robertson. Ronnie yet again was a losing favourite.

2015 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Losing Quarter Finalist). Again being favourite at the bookies did Ronnie no favours, he was to come unstuck against the eventual champion Stuart Bingham in the Quarter Finals after a mentally fragile first week when most saw the signs that he wasn’t quite up to the job. Losing as the bookies favourite was now becoming a very annoying habit for him and his backers. Selby in the meantime was the latest victim of The Crucible Curse.

It’s been quite a while…
2016 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Round 2 Loser). The bookies again made Ronnie favourite following a mercurial display in the Welsh Open and rumours of him hitting the practice table hard in the run up. But this time the man who he beat to win his previous world title, Barry Hawkins, was his conqueror in Round 2. It was the World Number 1 Mark Selby who ended up with the trophy in his hands for the second time, beating first time finalist Ding Junhui 18-14. It was another ‘Curse’ year, Stuart Bingham beaten by Ali Carter on Day 1 this time in a decider.

2017 – Mark Selby (Winner). Selby came here as the standalone favourite on the back of a mediocre season by his own standards but having won the China Open a few weeks earlier. Judd Trump was touching joint favourite with a couple of firms keeping faith or wanting bets just like in 2013. The match of the tournament was Selby’s semi-final win over Ding Junhui, who was beginning to look like it might be his time after a memorable win in the Quarter Final over Ronnie O’Sullivan. But Selby’s granite proved too much for him and in the end also for a tired looking John Higgins who again featured in the final after a few years away from the one table set up. Selby coming back after a first day slump 18-15, landing the 7/2 favourites tag for the first time since his opponent did it in 2011.

 

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2018 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Round 2 Loser). Once again, O’Sullivan returned to the mantle of favourite and once again, he failed to justify it. A fine season leading into the big one had his fans hopes up but once he got to Sheffield he once again came up short, losing a bad tempered match to Ali Carter, who gained some revenge for the two final defeats Ronnie had inflicted on him. The winner however was another ‘Phoenix from the Flames’ in the shape of Mark Williams, who miraculously completed one of the sports great comebacks and beat his fellow veteran John Higgins in a pulsating final. The less said about the press conference afterwards, the better.

2019 – Ronnie O’Sullivan (Round 1 Loser). Again the mantle of bookies favourite proved the undoing of O’Sullivan, paired against amateur James Cahill in Round 1 most expected a flying start for the bang in form Rocket, but it wasn’t to be. He claimed later to be feeling unwell but in reality he would have had to produce some consistently spectacular stuff to see off the eventual winner and first time champion Judd Trump, who stormed to victory with some stunning snooker.

2020 – Judd Trump (Losing Quarter Finalist). Despite the overwhelming evidence of the Crucible Curse, the bookmakers saw no clear alternative to Judd defending his title successfully in what can easily be labelled the strangest World Championship on record. Played in summer, mostly behind closed doors amid the grip of a global pandemic, it’s something of a miracle we got a champion at all. But we did, in the shape of that man O’Sullivan again, clearly much more at home without the gaze of the rabble than others, the Rocket coasted to victory in the final after a dramatic semi-final against Selby

2021 -Judd Trump (Losing Quarter Finalist). Held just a few months after the 2020 championship and back in the normal slot, Judd again started favourite. But once again he was held at bay in the quarter finals, this time by Shaun Murphy who despite rallying a post-COVID crowd couldn’t manage to stop Mark Selby becoming the modern day force at the venue. Selby staking his claim once more as (for some reason), the player the bookies don’t fear.

So, the figures as they stand are since 1981:

Winning Favourites (Including Joint Favourites): 15

Losing Favourites (Including Joint Favourites): 27

Most Successful Favourites: Steve Davis (6 wins out of 9 attempts) and Stephen Hendry (6 out of 9).

Least Successful Favourite: Ronnie O’Sullivan (2 wins out of 14 attempts).

Most Successful Non-Favourite: Ronnie O’Sullivan (4 times winner when not favourite)

Clear Favourites who have lost in Round 1: Ronnie O’Sullivan (three times), Stephen Hendry (once), Steve Davis (once).

Co/Joint Favorites who have lost in Round 1: Neil Robertson (once).

Victims of The Crucible Curse: John Spencer (1978), Ray Reardon (1979), Terry Griffiths (1980), Cliff Thorburn (1981), Steve Davis (1982), Alex Higgins (1983), Dennis Taylor (1986), Joe Johnson (1987), Stephen Hendry (1991), John Parrott (1992), Ken Doherty (1998), John Higgins (1999), Mark Williams (2001), Ronnie O’Sullivan (2002), Peter Ebdon (2003), Shaun Murphy (2006), Graeme Dott (2007), Neil Robertson (2011), Mark Selby (2015), Stuart Bingham (2016), Judd Trump (2020)….

Defeaters of The Crucible Curse: NOBODY. EVER.

 

[church66]

Snookerbacker​

April 14, 2022​

Betfred World Snooker Championship Preview – Selby Can Add to Title Tally :​

https://www.snookerbacker.com/

Snookerbacker​

April 14, 2022​

Betfred World Snooker Championship Preview – Selby Can Add to Title Tally​

Filed under:

• Snooker Betting
• Snooker News

— snookerbacker @ 3:09 pm

It’s that time again
First of all, welcome back. I’ve been on a self-imposed retirement from this place for nearly a year now but if there is one thing that will always spark back my interest it’s the best 17 days of the year on the snooker calendar, yes people (or whatever you identify as), it’s time for the 2022 Betfred World Snooker Championship from the Crucible.
I wasn’t planning on penning a preview this year but when I actually said as much on social media something very odd happened, everyone started being very nice to me and begging me to rethink.
It seems that even though this particular corner of the internet has long since peaked, this time of year wouldn’t quite be the same for some of the more deluded of you without me babbling on about the first round. So, touched by your anorakness and after giving myself a stern talking to, rethink is what I did.
At the risk of going all JP on you, I will qualify what I am about to write with the caveat that I haven’t watched as much snooker this year as I normally would and I haven’t seen a lot of this young man play. Also, I may get the odd stat or fact wrong, so advanced apologies to the Anorak Community, but that said my relationship with facts and figures can at times be as tenuous as the current UK government, the only key difference being I don’t lie on purpose.
There’s the disclaimer out of the way.
The qualifiers gave us some of the usual thrills and spills. Not least because half the time the matches kept disappearing from our screens, some players were also pretty angry that the cloths had been put on the wrong way round to help the hapless production company get things right. It made the first few days pretty much unwatchable and we’re not to know the conversations that went on behind the scenes between those involved in the streaming and the governing body, not a happy family at times I wouldn’t have thought.
For the record, I’m not a total fan of the change in format and I think everyone who qualified should have had to play at least two best of nineteen matches. I’ve no issue with the best of elevens for the first two rounds, as with some of dross served up we’d still be there now, but after that it needs to start feeling like the blue riband event it is, so if I was to alter anything I’d make the third round best of nineteen.
We sadly lost a few familiar faces from the main tour as a result of the qualifiers, notably those who presumably will be heading to Q-School include main tour stalwarts Michael Holt, Kurt Maflin, Fergal O’Brien and Andrew Higginson, proving what a difficult career choice snooker can be if you hit a bad run of results, particularly in the continued absence of the Chinese events from the calendar.
The 16 who did come through include debutants Ashley Hugill, Jackson Page and the talented Iranian, Hossein Vafaei. The Man from Iran used his winning platform to halve his fanbase with immediate effect by saying Ronnie O’Sullivan is bad for the sport, should stop moaning and retire and leave it to the youngsters, quite who advised him to go with this communication strategy, god only knows.
Also through are Crucible old hands Ding Junhui, Dave Gilbert, Stephen Maguire and Matthew Stevens, joining Stevens and the seeded Mark Williams alongside Page to make up a six-pronged Welsh attack are Jamie’s Jones and Clarke and the resurgent Michael White. Wales being the second most represented country in the Last 32, so much for the Chinese revolution boyo.
Mark Selby is back to defend the title he won for a fourth time last season and is fast becoming the player to beat at this venue and arguably as close as we’ve seen to a dominating force here since Hendry in the 90’s. The man in form and bookies favourite is Neil Robertson and much has been made of his relatively poor record here, while Judd Trump has been a little quieter than usual this season, which is not always necessarily a bad thing. Ronnie, of course, will have his legions of supporters, some of whom may start burning Iranian flags in Crucible Square, and after claiming back the world number one spot who is to say he can’t equal Hendry’s tally of titles even at this late stage in his incredible career?
Other seeded players who will quietly fancy their chances include Crucible specialists Barry Hawkins, Kyren Wilson and Anthony McGill, former champions John Higgins, Shaun Murphy, Mark Williams and Stuart Bingham and of course the new Chinese generation of major winners in Yan Bingtao and Zhao Xintong.
When you get through a list like that and you still haven’t mentioned a proven major winner like Mark Allen you kind of know this could be the most open championship for years; it’s a cliché of course, but I think this year the label is justified and you can make a case to some extent for the majority of the field.
Right here goes with a look at the matches, if you click on the match it will magically transport you to the head to heads between the two players courtesy of the always excellent Cue Tracker, a real online haven for anoraks.

PRIZE MONEY​

• Winner: £500,000
• Runner-up: £200,000
• Semi-finals: £100,000
• Quarter-finals: £50,000
• Last 16: £30,000
• Last 32: £20,000

 

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TABLE ONE

Mark Selby v Jamie Jones (Sat 16 Apr 10am/Sat 16 Apr 7pm)

As is traditional, Saturday morning on Table 1 begins with the defending champion as Mark Selby kicks off his campaign to make it 5 world titles against a player with a reputation for a bit of giant-killing in Jamie Jones. Selby’s mental health issues have been much documented and since he was sat in a car park getting impatient for Vicky to fetch his coffee and decided to tell the world of his issues, the snooker community has put a collective cueing arm around him. But make no mistake, when it comes to playing at The Crucible he doesn’t need any such help. His record here whilst he’s been battling his inner demons leads me to conclude that this is increasingly becoming that safe place that we all need from time to time. His record against Jones doesn’t really offer any hope to the Welshman who as good as I think he is, will surely struggle over this distance in the tactical department against the reigning champion. I don’t foresee any major issue for Selby here and I think he’ll once again be very close to the business end of the championship.

Predicted Score: Selby 10-5

Yan Bingtao v Chris Wakelin (Tue 19 Apr 10am/Tue 19 Apr 7pm)

Yan Bingtao has not really kicked on since his famous Masters win in errmm, Milton Keynes, and he’s only managed to secure a seeded spot here by the skin of his teeth with results going his way, basically not through any really strong performances from him of late. Early exits in his defence of the Masters and the UK alongside his 9-0 drubbing in the German Masters final at the hands of Zhao seemed to knock the stuffing out of him a bit so to rescue his season he will need a decent run in this. Chris Wakelin makes his third appearance here and will be hoping it is third time lucky to win his first match, on his debut he came within a whisker of beating Judd but last time he was soundly beaten by Dave Gilbert. They are 1-1 on the head to heads and I don’t think Chris is without a chance here so it’s worth looking at the handicaps, but on balance I’m going to take Yan to just pinch it from the Dancing Potter.

Predicted Score: Yan 10-8

Barry Hawkins v Jackson Page (Sat 16 Apr 2:30pm/Sun 17 Apr 7pm)

A meaningless head to head stat means that effectively these two are meeting for the first time. Perceived wisdom is that the seeds always prefer to play a debutant so I don’t think a seasoned Crucible specialist like Barry will be too concerned with this draw. Jackson, still only 21 despite having had a beard for about a decade came through in blistering style, a totally fearless and ferocious potter who has been the protégé of Mark Williams now for a few years, he will no doubt go out there with this same attitude so the way the first few frames go will I think dictate the story of the match. But either way I see either a comfortable win for Hawkins or a nervy one which he just edges.

Predicted Score: Hawkins 10-4

Mark Williams v Michael White (Sun 17 Apr 2:30pm/Mon 18 Apr 2:30pm)

The first thing that stands out here apart from a whiff of sheep dip in the air is the head to head between these two. The much missed and extremely talented Michael White was at this stage back in 2013 when he beat Williams 10-6. Granted this was the Williams who at that point was still just plodding along but since then White has beaten him twice more, most notably in the UK Championship in 2019 when Williams definitely wasn’t still just plodding along. So going into this Michael will have nothing to fear in terms of his record against his fellow taff. I do sense that there might be an upset on the cards here and of the four seeds in this quarter I’d say MJW is the most vulnerable, but this is the new Mark 2 Williams, so I just can’t have him being beaten at the first hurdle here these days, but never say never.

Predicted Score: Williams 10-8

Kyren Wilson v Ding Junhui (Wed 20 Apr 10am/Wed 20 Apr 7pm)

A lot of people’s tie of the round this one with Ding looking back to something like some decent form of late. The pressure of expectation which has dogged him throughout his world championship campaigns being well and truly lifted from his shoulders by the younger Chinese players, for now at least. Plenty are making the point that last time he had to qualify he made the final so the omens are all good for his followers. Kyren is establishing himself very much as next new World Champion material and he gets on very well with the venue, which is probably around 80% of the battle. I have noticed that in the past on morning sessions here Ding can take a while to warm up so that might be worth factoring in, the head to head is dead level and they have beaten each other in the last few weeks in ranking events so all signs point to a thriller.

Predicted Score: Wilson 10-9

Stuart Bingham v Lyu Haotian (H2H 0-0) (Mon 18 Apr 7pm/Tue 19 Apr 2:30pm)

2015 Champion and narrowly beaten semi-finalist last time out Bingham plays Lyu Haotian for the first time in both their professional careers, so that’s any head to head clues out of the window. Lyu is making his third appearance at The Crucible and he has actually won a match here before, beating Marco Fu on his debut in 2018. He’s clung onto his main tour card this season and is rarely seen troubling anything like the business end of events so this constitutes his best run of the season by a long way. The thing with Lyu is that he very rarely beats players who are ranked higher than him and hardly ever beats anyone in Stuart’s lofty bracket so I think this one could be one-way traffic for First Poke.

Predicted Score: Bingham 10-3

Anthony McGill v Liam Highfield (Sun 17 Apr 10am/Mon 18 Apr 10am)

This is definitely a quarter bursting with Crucible specialists and Anthony McGill is another to add to this list as he takes on the dangerous Liam Highfield. Liam is yet another qualifier making their third appearance here and another that is yet to win a match, being easily beaten by Judd at this stage last year. He isn’t without the odd top 16 scalp and this season he has beaten both Mark Selby and Jack Lisowski so the game is there but he rarely progresses past this stage of any event. McGill himself has had a patchy season but a semi-final and quarter-final ranking appearance tells me that he’s not in bad shape overall. He tends to always play his best here and again, I’m going to side with the seeded player to progress.

Predicted Score: McGill 10-7

Judd Trump v Hossein Vafaei (Wed 20 Apr 2:30pm/Thu 21 Apr 7pm)

As I said in the opening preamble, Judd has had a fairly quiet season by his own high standards which seems silly to say when he has picked up two titles and is testament to what is expected of him these days. He’s talked of taking some time off from snooker so perhaps mentally he’s not where he needs to be going into the big one, but how many times have the Snooker Gods changed fortunes in Sheffield down the years? Hossein is playing here for the first time but one thing this guy isn’t lacking is confidence. He talks like a world-beater, he even sometimes plays like one and you get the feeling he believes he is destined for greater things in the game. He does have something of a star quality and if he does win here I think he could be the surprise package of the championship in a winnable quarter. Well I have to back against one seed in this half don’t I? Sorry Judd, I just think this is a guy you could do without if you have a few gremlins upstairs.

Predicted Score: Vafaei 10-8

 

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TABLE TWO

Neil Robertson v Ashley Hugill (Mon 18 Apr 2:30pm/Tue 19 Apr 10am)

OK, first thing’s first, it’s pronounced ‘Hugh Gill’ like the Gill rhymes with Grill. So all together now…. Ashley Hugh-Jill, I mean Huge-Gill oh never mind, just call him Ashley. Anyway, the favourite for the championship has drawn a debutant, albeit one that has beaten him on their only past meeting, but Robbo can’t be disappointed in how the balls came out of the bags. Much has been made of his record here of course and the ‘walking into the shot’ issue he has as he tends to approach the table like an ostrich with his huge (pronounced Huge) stride-in. I did offer to let him practice on my table at home to get used to what it’s like to be up against the fireplace but I didn’t hear back. It’s great for Ashley, another protégé of the snooker factory that is Vic’s Academy in Sheffield, that he’s made it this far but it would be a hug……massive shock if he got any further. If Robbo can make the semi-finals it goes without saying he will take a lot of stopping but he might need to beat Higgins to get there.

Predicted Score: Robertson 10-3

Jack Lisowski v Matthew Stevens (Tue 19 Apr 7pm/Wed 20 Apr 2:30pm)

I’m really looking forward to this one between two of the best players to watch in the sport. Stevens has already performed a minor miracle with his comeback to beat Ali Carter, who looked to be coasting to victory before Matthew found his potting boots. I think they will both be pleased with this draw as it’s bound to be a match where they each get chances and get to play their natural game. The head to head doesn’t really tell us anything between two players who will rely on their feel and form on the day. Jack isn’t always the strongest starter here and you might expect his Crucible record to be a little better at this stage in his career. Matthew has been there and oh so nearly done that on many occasions, albeit a while back. But that win against Ali must give him a real boost and I think the momentum is with the Welshman.

Predicted Score: Stevens 10-7

Luca Brecel v Noppon Saengkham (Wed 20 Apr 7pm/Thu 21 Apr 1pm)

And before anyone starts, it was ME who called him The Pallindromic Potter first and anyone who claims otherwise I’ll see you in court. Anyway, Noppon is a prolific scorer and by all accounts one of the hardest working pro’s in the business, he’s also another who is here for the third time having given Shaun Murphy a good hiding on his last visit before taking Mark Selby all the way, so his pedigree at the venue is not in doubt. The same cannot be said for Luca, four visits and yet to win a match yet it’s the unpredictable Belgian that is the seeded player, a sign of how up and down he can be in terms of form. I’d say the sensible money here would be on Noppon to progress, he won’t be phased by the venue, his opponent still has that monkey on his back and he’s fresh from a great performance in the qualifiers.

Predicted Score: Saengkham 10-6

John Higgins v Thepchaiya Un-Nooh (Tue 19 Apr 2:30pm/Wed 20 Apr 10am)

The possibility of an all Thai second round clash has another slight obstacle in the way, though not as much in the way as he was 12 months ago, in the new slimmed down John Higgins. John’s transformation must surely have a positive effect on his chances if he progresses into Week 2, I think if he’d been this fit in the three finals he’s lost in recent years he would probably have captured at least one of them, but that’s impossible to quantify of course. Theppy doesn’t have much luck with first round draws and faces Higgins for the second time at this stage having lost 10-7 back in 2018. He got a right old pasting from Ronnie last time he was here so he’ll want to put up a much better show this time, but he’ll have to try his best to curtail his attacking urges to get anywhere near the wily old Wizard here. I can’t see it personally.

Predicted Score: Higgins 10-4

Zhao Xintong v Jamie Clarke (Sat 16 Apr 10am/Sun 17 Apr 10am)

It’s taken 12 matches of being highly objective but now it’s time for me to nail my colours to mast and say that I want Jamie Clarke to win this match more than I want world peace. I’ve known Jamie for many years since his involvement in my competition and he is a cracking lad and is now developing into the player I always knew he could be. I’m in Sheffield on Saturday so when the draw was made I was delighted as I have a ticket for this match courtesy of the sponsors, so all the stars are aligned nicely. Of course Zhao is a massive talent and has rightly earned praise for his UK and German Masters wins, but he’s only played here once and lost to Selby back in 2019 so Jamie’s run on his debut must give him confidence. I genuinely think he can upset the odds and play on his greater experience of the venue, albeit this time with a capacity crowd and a biased Scouser cheering him on from the rafters. GET IN THERE.

Predicted Score: Clarke 10-8

Shaun Murphy v Stephen Maguire (Sat 16 Apr 7pm/Sun 17 Apr 7pm)

I could start this one with a tired old gag warning Mags not to forget his chalk, but that would just be childish and not something anyone would wish to drag up again. Anyway, this obviously provides centre stage drama between two players who have met up 22 times in proper comps with Murphy holding a slender 12-10 lead on the head to heads. Their last two meetings have seen Maguire come out on top, most recently at the 2021 Welsh Open in a decider. You can’t split these two despite the gulf that has developed temporarily in their respective rankings, last year’s runner-up will doubtless have wanted an opener where he could stamp his authority over a fragile newbie, instead he’s got arguably the hardest test of the lot. Impossible to call with any degree of certainty other than it will surely be 10-8 or 10-9 either way. Oh Mags, don’t forget your chalk.

Predicted Score: Murphy 10-9

Mark Allen v Scott Donaldson (Mon 18 Apr 10am/Mon 18 Apr 7pm)

Another player up there with Matthew Stevens as ‘the best player never to be world champion’ is Mark Allen, but he still has time to put that right. To do that he will really need to embrace this venue, which has held slim pickings for him in the past. Sometimes you just have to take stock and wonder why a player who can play like Allen with a nice compact action can’t reproduce that here, it’s very difficult to put your finger on so it must drive him potty. His head to head with Scott Donaldson is very positive so he’ll have no reason to have any nagging first round doubts where the draw is concerned. I think assuming this goes to form and a certain Mr O’Sullivan wins his match this could be the kind of first rounder that Allen needs to focus and springboard a real run to the one-table situation, he has it in him, but can he find it?

Predicted Score: Allen 10-6

Ronnie O’Sullivan v Dave Gilbert (Sat 16 Apr 2:30pm/Sun 17 Apr 2:30pm)

I sat in the press seats behind the cameras when these two met at this stage in 2016 until some big tree from a rock band booted me out during the second session, taking up enough space for three of me. But what I did see was a virtuoso performance from Ronnie despite Gilbert hardly putting a foot wrong. There are certain players that I think Ronnie really steps up against and I think Dave is one of them, maybe he can see, as most of us can, what a great player he is, he barely ever plays the wrong shot and therefore Ronnie needs to put him away, this might be why Dave has never beaten him in six attempts. It pains me to say it but this is probably an ideal warm up for Ronnie to play Allen in Round 2, I still love Gilberto though so at least now he’ll be a better price in the outrights.

Predicted Score: Ronnie 10-7

Predicted Champion – Mark Selby

Predicted Quarter Winners – Selby, Vafaei, Higgins, O’Sullivan

I will be posting any recommended bets prior to the start of the event on Saturday both on here and on Twitter