Stats -- Orcollo vs. Shaw 10-Ball Race to 120, November 2021

AtLarge

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Here are some results from the Dennis Orcollo vs. Jayson Shaw 10-Ball match played at Bill's Billiard Bar & Grill in Midwest City (Oklahoma City), Oklahoma on November 19-21, 2021. Pay-per-view streaming was provided by Omega Billiards. The primary commentators were Joey Gray and Josh Roberts, with Steven Wyatt of Omega making frequent appearances.

This match was a race to 120 game wins played over 3 days. Orcollo won the match, outscoring Shaw each of the 3 days (Orcollo's score first):
Day 1 -- 40 - 36​
Day 2 -- 40 - 36 (2-day total 80 - 72)​
Day 3 -- 40 - 20​
Total -- 120 - 92​
[Note: I believe the above "official" score mistakenly credits Shaw with an extra game win early on Day 2; so he actually won 35 games that day, not 36, and 91 in total. Therefore, my stats are for 211 games in total rather than the "official" 212.​

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- 9-foot Diamond table with pro-cut pockets (4½" corners);​
- new, blue Simonis cloth;​
- what appeared to be Aramith Tournament balls with a red measles cue ball;​
- Accu-Rack racking template;​
- rack your own, with the 1-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball and 3-ball on the back corners;​
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back if a ball is pocketed illegally;​
- early called combos or caroms on the 10-ball win the game (a 10-ball on the break is spotted);​
- 3-foul rule in effect (did not happen);​
- jump cues allowed;​
- cue ball fouls only;​
- no shot clock; and​
- lag for opening break on Day 1 (won by Orcollo).​

■ Orcollo broke 120 times -- successful 98 times (resulting in 74 game wins and 24 losses), 5 fouls (all losses), and 17 dry (7 wins, 10 losses).

■ Shaw broke 91 times -- successful 69 times (resulting in 48 game wins and 21 losses), 5 fouls (all losses), and 17 dry (4 wins, 13 losses).

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Orcollo -- 98 of 120 (82%)​
Shaw -- 69 of 91 (76%)​
Total -- 167 of 211 (79%)​

Unsuccessful breaks (fouled or dry):
Orcollo -- 22 of 120 (18%)​
Shaw -- 22 of 91 (24%)​
Total -- 44 of 211 (21%)​

Breaker won game:
Orcollo -- 81 of 120 (68%)​
Shaw -- 52 of 91 (57%)​
Total -- 133 of 211 (63%)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
Orcollo -- 56 of 120 (47%)​
Shaw -- 39 of 91 (43%)​
Total -- 95 of 211 (45%)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Orcollo -- 56 of 98 (57%)​
Shaw -- 39 of 69 (57%)​
Total -- 95 of 167 (57%)​

Fouls and foul rates: [Note: "games at the table" means total games less opponent's B&R games.]
Orcollo -- 17 fouls, including 5 on the break, in 172 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 10.1 games at the table)​
Shaw -- 16 fouls, including 5 on the break, in 155 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 9.7 games at the table)​
Total -- 33 fouls in 211 games (1 per 6.4 games)​

Missed shots (est.):
Orcollo -- 29 misses in 172 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 5.9 games at the table)​
Shaw -- 30 misses in 155 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 5.2 games at the table)​
Total -- 59 misses in 211 games (1 per 3.6 games)​

Run-outs from first shot after break:
By Orcollo after his own successful break -- 56 of 98 (57%)​
By Orcollo after Shaw's failed break -- 12 of 22 (55%)​
By Orcollo, total -- 68 of 120 (57%)​
By Shaw after his own successful break -- 39 of 69 (57%)​
By Shaw after Orcollo's failed break -- 12 of 22 (55%)​
By Shaw, total -- 51 of 91 (56%)​
Total for Orcollo and Shaw -- 119 of 211 (56%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Orcollo's break:
By Orcollo -- 56 of 98 (57%)​
By Shaw -- 12 of 22 (55%)​
Total -- 68 of 120 (57%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Shaw's break:
By Shaw -- 39 of 69 (57%)​
By Orcollo -- 12 of 22 (55%)​
Total -- 51 of 91 (56%)​

Break-and-run packages
Orcollo's 56 B&R games consisted of 1 7-pack, 1 4-pack, 4 3-packs, 9 2-packs, and 15 singles​
Shaw's 39 B&R games consisted of 1 6-pack, 1 5-pack, 1 4-pack, 1 3-pack, 4 2-packs, and 13 singles​

Games with 1 or more safeties (est)
27% of all games (57 of 211)​
49% of games that were not B&Rs (57 of 116)​

Average number of balls made on the break:
Orcollo -- 1.5 on all breaks, 1.7 on successful breaks​
Shaw -- 1.5 on all breaks, 1.8 on successful breaks​
Total -- 1.5 on all breaks, 1.8 on successful breaks​

Number of innings -- 67% (141 of 211) of the games ended in one inning, with 95 games ending on the breaker's first inning (B&R games) and 46 games ending on the non-breaker's first inning. 30 games ended on the breaker's second inning, and 17 games ended on the non-breaker's second inning. 11% (23 of 211) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table, with the longest game ending on the breaker's 8th visit.

Distribution of consecutive game wins, i.e. winning streaks. Counts are given for Orcollo first, then Shaw, then the total.
1 game -- 20 times, 22 times, 42 times​
2 games -- 3, 7, 10​
3 games -- 6, 2 , 8​
4 games -- 5, 3, 8​
5 games -- 2, 1, 3​
6 games -- 1, 1, 2​
7 games -- 0, 1, 1​
8 games -- 0, 1, 1​
9 games -- 2, 0, 2​
10 games -- 1, 0, 1​
11 games -- 0, 1, 1​
12 games -- 1, 0, 1​

10-balls on the break -- None (they would have been spotted).

Match length -- Approximately 17½ hours, for an average of 5.0 minutes per game. This includes racking and brief timeouts, but excludes a total of about 1.1 hours for 3 longer intermissions (one each day).
 

pt109

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Too bad about the incident with Jayson’s wife.
I hope she’ll be okay.

I’m sure the results are a bit skewed
 

fjk

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"Shaw -- 30 misses in 155 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 5.2 games at the table)"

One miss every 5.2 games (in 10 ball!) and he loses by 28 racks. I don't know how Dennis finds games.
 

rexus31

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Is the "my wife's drink was spiked with benzos and she almost died" variable in the stats? IMO, the stats are pointless. Shaw pulled an all nighter heading into Day 3 and his mind was clearly with his wife in the hospital. What's shocking is he even played at all. Under normal circumstances, who knows what would have happened but it would have been A LOT closer.
 

AtLarge

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... IMO, the stats are pointless. ...
Well, maybe not all of them. They show how Orcollo has improved his 10-Ball break, at least under these conditions (template, pattern racking, fairly new cloth), to a level that may be competitive with anyone. On his 98 successful breaks (82%), he made at least one of the balls behind the 1-ball, into a side pocket, 90 times. On Day 2, he averaged 2.1 balls on all breaks and 2.3 on successful breaks. And then his run-out skills took him into the top ranks for B&Rs.

... Under normal circumstances, who knows what would have happened but it would have been A LOT closer.
Agreed.
 
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