The runout

[Masayoshi]

A handful of players barely broke the 40% mark as a percentage of games won. Most were more like thirty. Unfortunately the stats don't show anything about how often they actually broke (or broke dry). So we have no idea how often the player makes a ball on the break or how often they convert it to a runout. Percentage of break and runs out if total games played was usually between ten and fifteen percent. But without knowing how often they got to break in those games, it's not a useful stat... If they broke about 50% of them that would be a 20-30% runout rate.

Being able to break 40% at all over a whole tournament just shows that its easier than 9 ball, especially when you take into account that the break in 8 ball is apparently more difficult than 8 ball. Considering several players broke 40%, I think it is pretty fair to conclude that 8 ball is easier to run out, unless you can find a 9 ball tournament with 4.5 inch pockets where the better players averaged 40% or better.

Like I said, total break and runs isn't a relevant statistic because a good percentage of the players in the IPT weren't up to par skill wise.

 

[VIProfessor]

I believe the answer to the question is partially dependent on the skill level of the player. Until you get to the high 'B' level, there isn't even a debate....8-ball is significantly easier to run out, simply because the shot-making and positional requirements of runout 9-ball (in terms of moving the cue ball up and down and across table with some precision) are just too much for most 'C' players to handle. I have a bunch of 'C' players around here who will run their share of 8-ball racks in the course of an evening, but they'll practically buy the house a round of drinks if they break and run out playing 9-ball.

At higher levels of play is where the debate begins, IMO. Still, however, my experience and the info I have seen leads towards saying that 8-ball is easier to run out, even on an 8-foot table. As noted by a previous poster, a skilled player, particularly one that has good straight pool knowledge, will have often have multiple opportunities to set up a cluster-breaker before getting down to the last couple balls.

The last time Robb Saez was around these parts he ran 8-packs (8-ball) on an 8-footer like it was child's play. He didn't run out so easily playing 9-ball on the same equipment. The IPT stats and the Accu-Stats numbers are also telling. Who sports a 40% B&R rate over the course of a 9-ball tournament??

 

[CreeDo]

Being able to break 40% at all over a whole tournament just shows that its easier than 9 ball, especially when you take into account that the break in 8 ball is apparently more difficult than 8 ball. Considering several players broke 40%, I think it is pretty fair to conclude that 8 ball is easier to run out, unless you can find a 9 ball tournament with 4.5 inch pockets where the better players averaged 40% or better.

Like I said, total break and runs isn't a relevant statistic because a good percentage of the players in the IPT weren't up to par skill wise.

I think there's still some confusion so let me stress again: nobody is breaking and running 40% of all their games. They are only breaking and running 40% of the games they won. If they only win about half their games (which is about right for most players), that means at most a ~20% break and run rate overall.

Which is certainly strong. But. Check out some old accustats, which are all about 9 ball: http://www.azbilliards.com/accustats/

There's a section called "Runout opportunities". Under tournament conditions, these guys are averaging 60-70%. I guess we'll need some clarification on "Run out opportunity" but I *think* it means the player has a look at the 1 either after their own successful break, or after the opponent's dry break. Accustats isn't going to call it a runout if one dude runs 6 balls and the other runs 3 to win.

So, in a game where making a ball is 95% guaranteed on modern equipment, the top players are getting out 60-70% if they can see the one. I believe this should translate to a higher percentage of break'n'runs compared to 8 ball.

Ironically, I have always leaned towards 8 ball being the easier game, this is all just devil's advocate. I guess it depends on overall skill level as others have noted.

BTW, these guys didn't hit 40%:
Johnny Archer
Efren Reyes
Corey Deuel
Thorsten Hohmann
Mika Immonen
Alex Pagulayan
Earl Strickland

So when I say only a few managed to hit 40%, it's not because the good players didn't bother to show up. All the household names were there. It's just a very tough mark to hit.

 

[PGHteacher]

This question in its present form can not be answered IMHO. You can ask:

1. For each category (or is there a difference) Pro, AA, A, B, C and D players which has the highest % of break & runs 8ball or 9ball?
2. Can the players that play 9ball exclusively or 8b (don’t laugh there are plenty of them) run out more 8ball racks than 9 ball racks as a % or vice versa?
3. For someone that avoids these 2 games as much as humanly possible and thinks both are poison to “great pool” what game could he break and never give his opponent an inning (9ball combo being considered).
4. Is a break & run attempt more advisable (as far as ones best chance to win the game) when it involves low % shots in 8b or 9b and does this change as the game progresses?
5. In what game given that it is only 1 game (not a race to ___) does the weaker player stand the best chance of winning by running the table 8b or 9b?

If you gave me a couple of days I could double this list; it depends on too many factors most of which is the game you play the most, followed closely by skill level. (some might say I have this backwards, and this would be true for the lower skill levels).

8b and 9b are different; I can’t imagine that for someone that plays 9b for 4-5 hours a day 5 days a week and has been for ___ years on a 9ft table that given a solid break that sinks a ball and centers the CB; wouldn’t have a high b&r % on an 8 (or 7ft) table. And that their 8b b&r % would be higher is pure speculation (unless you tested a very large group of players from “the major” pool playing cultures).

Nor can I imagine that a 200 ball runner would have much trouble clearing an 8b table even if there were a couple of clusters more so than the 9b for 4-5 hours a day 5 days a week and has been for ___ years on a 9ft table that given a solid break that sinks a ball and centers the CB guy.

So bottom line is “what’s easier to run on a __ table” can’t be answered unless you put a “for you”, “for most players”, “for most A, B, C or D players” etc.. etc.. after it.
JM2C.

 

[strmanglr scott]

This post has expired.

 

[VIProfessor]

I think there's still some confusion so let me stress again: nobody is breaking and running 40% of all their games. They are only breaking and running 40% of the games they won. If they only win about half their games (which is about right for most players), that means at most a ~20% break and run rate overall.

Which is certainly strong. But. Check out some old accustats, which are all about 9 ball: http://www.azbilliards.com/accustats/

There's a section called "Runout opportunities". Under tournament conditions, these guys are averaging 60-70%. I guess we'll need some clarification on "Run out opportunity" but I *think* it means the player has a look at the 1 either after their own successful break, or after the opponent's dry break. Accustats isn't going to call it a runout if one dude runs 6 balls and the other runs 3 to win.

So, in a game where making a ball is 95% guaranteed on modern equipment, the top players are getting out 60-70% if they can see the one. I believe this should translate to a higher percentage of break'n'runs compared to 8 ball.

Ironically, I have always leaned towards 8 ball being the easier game, this is all just devil's advocate. I guess it depends on overall skill level as others have noted.

BTW, these guys didn't hit 40%:
Johnny Archer
Efren Reyes
Corey Deuel
Thorsten Hohmann
Mika Immonen
Alex Pagulayan
Earl Strickland

So when I say only a few managed to hit 40%, it's not because the good players didn't bother to show up. All the household names were there. It's just a very tough mark to hit.

I have to respectfully disagree on a couple of points:

First, it would seem to me that the B&R as a percentage of games won is a fairly accurate number simply because the IPT rules were winner breaks. Thus, a player could not have broken more times than they won, assuming that over the long haul the first and last games (as the first game is determined by lag and the winner doesn't get to break after the last game) will cancel each other out. As such, there is no justification for slicing 40% down to 20%.

Secondly, the top pros do not run out from the break in 9-ball nearly so often as your post would suggest. Looking at the same figures from accu-stats one notes that in the 1986 U.S. Open, for example, the top break performance, in terms of percentages, was from Allen Hopkins, who made a ball on the break without scratching 67.5% of the time (and even with today's techniques and equipment the pros do NOT approach 95%!). Further, this figure does not, in any way, , translate into B&R opportunities. You will also note that he ran out 64.2% of the time that he had an opportunity to run out. IF he had an opportunity 100% of the time after he made a ball on the break, this would have translated into a 43.3% B&R average if my math is correct. However, in reality we know that you have an opportunity, even after a successful break, a much lower percentage of the time. For this reason, B&R percentages in the high 20's and low 30's will still terrify any pro 9-ball tour, IMHO, assuming the other parts of one's game are strong as well.

It's a fun debate, but even though I still come down on the side of 8-ball being easier to run out for the most part, I think a previous poster has it right. SO much of this is dependent on the skill sets of the players involved. When you look at this question, relatively small differences in shotmaking ability, the nature of one's position and pattern play, creativity, overall game knowledge, etc. add up to huge differences even among players that are pretty much in the same class. Still I can't resist one last try at a generally accurate formulation, so here goes: "On an 8-foot table, 8-ball is without question, easier to run out for intermediate players and below. For better players, runout 8-ball is easier if the player has a good straight pool foundation and ability to execute. Those who focus solely on 9-ball, however, may have some difficulties with 8-ball racks on an 8 footer if they do not play solid patterns, are uncomfortable playing for smaller position zones in certain spots, or fail to utilize sufficient creativity."

(whew!!)