Raffle Canceled
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>> Win-Place-Show SUPER RAFFLE - $50/Spot!!! <<
- Thread starter Worminator
- Start date
No interest in this type of raffle?
win-place-show
it's me jamie, the one who purchased the ginacue 11c , regards,ariel
i'm in jamie :wink:Worminator said:
it's me jamie, the one who purchased the ginacue 11c , regards,ariel
328ismpower said:
OK Ariel...
We have 1 player:thumbup: folks!
Super Raffle
No. None of these cues have the "wow" factor to elicit a $50 price. While the cost/cue can theoretically be divided by 3 as you have done, the reality, other than not winning, is that a possible winner invested $50 in a chance for 1 cue that by itself could not elicit a $50 chance. People, especially gamblers, want instant gratification. Your plan to have 3 possible winners takes too long to achieve. Few would want to wait 3 weeks, or even 3 drawings to see if they won. Sorry.
Worminator said:
No. None of these cues have the "wow" factor to elicit a $50 price. While the cost/cue can theoretically be divided by 3 as you have done, the reality, other than not winning, is that a possible winner invested $50 in a chance for 1 cue that by itself could not elicit a $50 chance. People, especially gamblers, want instant gratification. Your plan to have 3 possible winners takes too long to achieve. Few would want to wait 3 weeks, or even 3 drawings to see if they won. Sorry.
AlexB said:
Please bestow upon us a "wow factor" raffle, O yea, king of the raffles...
ABall said:
I'm not. I've participated in many of them, if I liked what was offered. Also, I have never offered any opinion, good or bad, about anyone's raffle unless such an opinion was solicited. I think it is hilarious that a seller/raffler asks for an opinion then gets their tidy whities in a bunch when the forthcoming response isn't what they want to read. My name isn't Garcia so there is no need to shoot me.
AlexB said:
Please enlighten me as to what a "wow factor" raffle might be...
AlexB said:
You were so adamant about stating your opinion...what happened?
Worminator said:
Nothing happened. There was nothing in my original response that was adamantly expressed. It was nothing more than a flat out statement that you apparently took exception to since you disagreed adamantly. You now are attempting to make it appear that I am the "bad" guy here because I expressed a dissenting opinion. Reread your original response to my first post and explain the reason for such a smart ass response. Now, to perpetuate and attempt to justify you initial uncalled for response, you are going to try to put me on the defensive to explain myself. That has been tried before by much better than you, and it ain't gonna fly.
AlexB said:
Please show me where I adamantly disagreed with anything you stated. I asked twice about your wow factor raffle and you refuse to answer. I have never entered a raffle (until about 30 minutes ago), and have never sold anything through a raffle. I appears I will not in this case either, that's OK.
AlexB said:
That's funny. Apparently you do like the friendly banter.
I rarely get into this type of exchange...if ever. So I will now refrain from further comment.
AlexB said:
if u think the price per spot is too high then consider that it could be because ur chance of winning is greater. ur chances of winning are at 1/14 as opposed to 1/42 which is reflected in the cost. also, since he's selling 3 cues, charging any less would mean losing money.
AlexB said:
cost has to do with your response. you expressed shock when you saw the price. you said the cues werent nice enough to warrant such a price. so obviously cost has something to do with what you wrote. what i am saying is that the cost is higher because your chances of winning one of the cues is higher.
with regards to the math, i am not incorrect, you are. your probability of winning a specific cue is 1/42, your probability of winning one of the three is 1/14. if you are to win all 3 cues, the probability is the probability of winning each one multiplied together, giving 1/42 x 1/42 x 1/42 = 1/74088. the probability of winning one of the three is the probability of winning each one added together which gives 1/42 + 1/42 + 1/42 = 3/42 = 1/14. the amount of drawings is irrelevant since your probability of winning each one is the same. you have 3 tries to win a cue at 1/42 odds so your probability of winning is added to 3/42 which is 1/14. this is basic math...
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Danktrees said:
You are correct it is simple math, you just don't understand it. If you draw 1 number out of a possible 42, your odds of winning are 1/42. It doesn't matter how many times you draw, because you've reset the probability over again when you have the second draw, you still pick 1 number from 42 possibilities. It doesn't matter what happened previously or what happens subsequently. You are always drawing 1/42 possibility. It is like playing craps. Everytime you throw the dice there is a 1/36 possible combination. It doesn't matter what the previous # was, when you throw them again, the same possible combinations can be made. The odds don't change.
As to the cost, I made no comment as to whether I considered the cost exorbitant or not, and I certainly wasn't shocked. I have no problem at the proposed cost. If you reread my response you may be able to discern that I was talking about perception of the cost vis-a-vis the cues being offered.
AlexB said:
incorrect, your odds are 1:41 not 1/42. odds arent read as a fraction.
alexb said:
wrong, the probability does not reset. it stays constant. the probability only resets if u choose a new number. since u cant change ur number here, your probability stays the same and is added together, not resetted. in your example, craps, there arent 36 possible combinations since a 2 and a 4 is the same as a 4 and a 2. even if there are 36 possible combinations, your expectation of hitting 1 of them is given by the probability of 1/36. if u place the same bet 36 times u are expected to win once. which is the same here. since the number u have does not change, your probability of winning is 1/14.
AlexB said:
no i think you are mistaken. the possibility is the same and stays at 1/42. thats why if u keep drawing, your probability of winning increases. doesnt mean u'll win but it means the probability is higher. because the expectation of a win increases for every loss you take.
like i said, the chance of winning a specific cue is 1/42, the chance or probability of winning any one of the three cues is 1/14 cuz u add up the probability of winning each one. since they are independent of each other that's why you add up 1/42 three times. it does just stay at 1/42 because u draw 3 different times. the basic math is this:
if the drawing for all 3 winners is from 1 drawing then -
the chance of winning the first cue is 1/42
the chance of winning the second cue is 1/42 + 1/41 (1/41 due to the fact that the first number is gone and can no longer be a winning number)
the chance of winning the third cue is 1/42 + 1/41 + 1/40
if the drawing for 3 winners is from 3 different drawings then -
the chance of winning any one specific cue is 1/42
the chance of winning any one of the three cues is 1/42+1/42+1/42 = 3/42 = 1/14
the chance of winning two of the cues is 1/42 x 1/42
the chance of winning all three is 1/42 x 1/42 x 1/42
ask anyone who can do math. this was taught in grade 11 lol.
the only difference between drawing all from 1 drawing and all from 3 different drawings is that in one drawing, the winning probabilities are dependent of each other since a winning number cannot win again so the probability goes from 1/42 to 1/41 to 1/40. if you do it in 3 drawings, the probability stays constant and it results in adding 1/42 together three times. the reason you add it all up is because the winning expectation grows with each failure. since your chance of winning is 1/42, you should win once for every 42 tries. so basically if he held 42 drawings you would add 1/42 by itself 42 times which gives u 42/42 = 1 which means that you should win once. the same applies here, except since u're only doing 3 drawings, then u add together 3 times which gives the fraction/probability of 1 in 14. of course this is just expectation theory and probability so its not a guaranteed win.
also, odds and probability are not the same. your probability of winning is 1/42, your odds of winning is 1:41 (1 win to 41 losses).
i dunno how else to explain this to you as it is a pretty simple equation. ask anyone who can do math. this is 100% right. these probability is what casinos use to win money from you. like with roulette. the betting can be split into 3 sections of 12 numbers. the probability of winning is roughly 1/3 (the possibility of losing to 0 or 00 lowers this probability slightly). if u bet on two sets of numbers the probability of winning is roughly 2/3 and pays off 2 to 1. while the odds of winning are in your favour, you will lose in the long run. since if u place the two bets, you are guaranteed to lose one of them. so for a 10 dollar bet (5 on each set of 12 numbers), you lose 5 but win 10 and get the other bet back. so in total u get 15 back. but if u lose, u lose 10 dollars. so if u win, u win 5, if u lose, u lose 10. in order for it to pay off on the long run, ur probability of winning has to be 2 times higher than your probability of losing in order to break even. this is not the case since your odds of winning are less than 66% because of the 0 and 00.
but seriously just go ask a math teacher to confirm that i am right.
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