Break Stats -- 2019 Predator World 10-Ball Championship, July 2019

[AtLarge]

Here are some aggregate statistics from the 2019 Predator World 10-Ball Championship played July 22-26 at the Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada with free streaming on CueSports International's YouTube channel. The winner was Ko Ping-Chung, defeating Joshua Filler in the final match.

This was a 64-player event, with double-elimination (races to 8) down to 16 players, and then single elimination (races to 10) to the end. The stats are for all 20 matches (281 games) streamed by CSI; this represented 17% of the total of 119 matches played in the event.

The conditions for the streamed matches included:

- Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut pockets;​

- Predator XK2 cloth, new on the bed and used (in one prior tournament) on the cushions;​

- Predator Arcos II balls, including a black-triangles cue ball;​

- referee racks using a racking template, with the 1-ball on the spot (2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners);​

- alternate breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​

- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;​

- early combinations or caroms on the 10-ball are not game winners; spot the 10-ball and continue shooting;​

- jump cues allowed;​

- foul on all balls;​

- 3-foul rule in effect (did not occur);​

- 40-second shot clock with one extension allowed per player per game; and​

- lag for opening break.​

The 20 matches (281 games) streamed and tracked were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played.

Mon. July 22, 2019

1. Joshua Filler defeated Fan Yang 8-5​

2. Jayson Shaw d. Lo Li-Wen 8-4​

3. Alex Pagulayan d. Darren Appleton 8-4​

4. Billy Thorpe d. Shane Van Boening 8-5​

Tues. July 23

5. Chris Melling d. Toru Kuribayashi 8-1​

6. Ralf Souquet d. Earl Strickland 8-6​

7. Raymund Faraon d. Fan Yang 8-7​

8. Fedor Gorst d. Matt Edwards 8-6​

Wed. July 24

9. Mario He d, Liu Cheng-Chieh 8-6​

10. Lo Li-Wen d. Skyler Woodward 8-3​

11. Chang Jung-Lin d. Melling 8-2​

12. Pagulayan d. Kuribayashi 8-3​

Thurs. July 25

13. Filler d. Shaw 10-8​

14. Ko Pin-Yi d. Chang 10-8​

15. Filler d. Niels Feijen 10-8​

16. Ko Ping-Chung d. Pagulayan 10-4​

17. Masato Yoshioka d. Tyler Styer 10-7​

Fri. July 26

18. Filler d. Ko P-Y 10-8 (Semifinal)​

19. Ko P-C d. Yoshioka 10-3 (Semifinal)​

20. Ko P-C d. Filler 10-7 (Final)​

Overall results

■ Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 80% (115 of 143) for match winners, 75% (103 of 138) for match losers, and 78% (218 of 281) in total​

​

■ Breaker won the game -- 78% (111 of 143) for match winners, 53% (73 of 138) for match losers, and 65% (184 of 281) in total​

​

■ Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 39% (56 of 143) for match winners, 33% (45 of 138) for match losers, and 36% (101 of 281) in total​

​

■ Break-and-run games on successful breaks -- 49% (56 of 115) for match winners, 44% (45 of 103) for match losers, and 46% (101 of 218) in total​

Here's a breakdown of the 281 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:

Breaker won the game: 156 (56% of the 281 games)​

Breaker lost the game: 62 (22%)​

Breaker fouled on the break:

Breaker won the game: 1 (0%)​

Breaker lost the game: 14 (5%)​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):

Breaker won the game: 27 (10%)​

Breaker lost the game: 21 (7%)​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 65% (184 of 281) of all games,

He won 72% (156 of 218) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​

He won 7% (1 of 15) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​

He won 56% (27 of 48) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​

He won 44% (28 of 63) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

Break-and-run games -- The 101 break-and-run games represented 36% of all 281 games, 55% of the 184 games won by the breaker, and 46% of the 218 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 101 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 4-pack (by Thorpe), 5 alternate-break 3-packs (3 by Filler, 1 by Chang J-L, and 1 by Ko P-Y), 17 alternate-break 2-packs, and 48 singles.

10-Balls on the break -- Five 10-balls were made on the break (1.8% of all 281 breaks); they were spotted.

 

[AtLarge]

Miscellany from the data for the 2019 Predator World 10-Ball Championship:
[This relates only to the 20 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done 8 times -- 3 times by Styer (1 B&R and 2 losses) and once each by Filler (B&R), He (a win, but not by B&R), Ko P-C (B&R), Souquet (B&R), and Thorpe (B&R).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.5 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.8.

• 54% (153 of 281) of the games ended in one inning – 36% (101) won by the breaker (B&R) and 19% (52) won by the non-breaker. Fourteen percent (38 of 281) of the games lasted 4 or more innings.

• 44% (125 of 281) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:

- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 46% (101 of 218)​

- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 80% (12 of 15)​

- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 25% (12 of 48)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:

- Won the game in that same inning 66% of the time (186 of 281)​

- Won the game in a later inning 11% of the time (30 of 281)​

- Lost the game 23% of the time (65 of 281)​

• The loser won an average of 4.3 games in the 12 races to 8 and 6.6 games in the 8 races to 10. Only one match went to hill/hill; the most lopsided matches in the two stages were 8-1 and 10-3.

• The average elapsed time for the 12 races to 8 was about 74 minutes, or 6.0 minutes per game. The average elapsed time for the 8 races to 10 was about 99 minutes, or 5.9 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• For all 20 matches, the one that was both longest in elapsed time, at 121 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 8.6, was Gorst d. Edwards 8-6.

• The shortest race to 8, at 46 minutes, was Melling d. Kuribayashi 8-1. The shortest race to 10, at 79 minutes, was Ko P-C d. Pagulayan 10-4. For all 20 matches, the one that was lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.5, was Filler d. Shaw 10-8.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 18.7 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.9 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2.4 games.

• About 36% of the games involved one or more safeties.

 

[pt109]

May be the best 10-ball tourney I’ve ever watched.
....and fantastic breaking.

 

[gxman]

Thanks for the efforts acquiring the stats.

If it's easy to figure, would you have the BNR % stats for Filler for all games on tv table?

 

[spartan]

W10B break compare to US Open

Miscellany from the data for the 2019 Predator World 10-Ball Championship:
[This relates only to the 20 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done 8 times -- 3 times by Styer (1 B&R and 2 losses) and once each by Filler (B&R), He (a win, but not by B&R), Ko P-C (B&R), Souquet (B&R), and Thorpe (B&R).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.5 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.8.

• 54% (153 of 281) of the games ended in one inning – 36% (101) won by the breaker (B&R) and 19% (52) won by the non-breaker. Fourteen percent (38 of 281) of the games lasted 4 or more innings.

• 44% (125 of 281) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 46% (101 of 218)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 80% (12 of 15)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 25% (12 of 48)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 66% of the time (186 of 281)
- Won the game in a later inning 11% of the time (30 of 281)
- Lost the game 23% of the time (65 of 281)

• The loser won an average of 4.3 games in the 12 races to 8 and 6.6 games in the 8 races to 10. Only one match went to hill/hill; the most lopsided games in the two stages were 8-1 and 10-3.

• The average elapsed time for the 12 races to 8 was about 74 minutes, or 6.0 minutes per game. The average elapsed time for the 8 races to 10 was about 99 minutes, or 5.9 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• For all 20 matches, the one that was both longest in elapsed time, at 121 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 8.6, was Gorst d. Edwards 8-6.

• The shortest race to 8, at 46 minutes, was Melling d. Kuribayashi 8-1. The shortest race to 10, at 79 minutes, was Ko P-C d. Pagulayan 10-4. For all 20 matches, the one that was lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.5, was Filler d. Shaw 10-8.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 18.7 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.9 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2.4 games.

• About 36% of the games involved one or more safeties.

Thanks AtLarge
Compared with your stats for US Open 2019,
Successful breaks 78% for events
B&R on successful breaks 46% more than 43% in US Open
Break dry without fouling 17% less than 18% in US Open

That suggests that:
(a) this World 10 Ball is breaking slightly better than US Open (either cos of equipment/break rules or players mastered the break faster maybe because of the warm-up event Diamond Open used exactly same equipment and location)
and (b) 10ball break not as difficult as 9ball (to these pro players anyway). But yet we frequently hear players, folks say 10ball break is tougher than 9 ball



US Open 2019 Stats

 

[8cree]

Definitely thanks for the effort to post these stats! Different perspectives are typically interesting statistically. Well done

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

 

[AtLarge]

The 20 streamed matches involved 24 different players. Thirteen of them appeared in streamed matches just once, 8 appeared twice, 2 appeared three times (Ko Ping-Chung and Pagulayan), and 1 five times (Filler). Here are some stats for the 3 players who appeared at least 3 times (Filler, Ko P-C, Pagulayan) plus the 2 players who finished 3rd/4th in the event (Ko P-Y and Yoshioka, with just 2 appearances on stream each).

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):

• Filler -- 90% (38 of 42)
  Ko P-C -- 78% (18 of 23)
  Pagulayan -- 83% (15 of 18)
  Ko P-Y -- 78% (14 of 18)
  Yoshioka -- 87% (13 of 15)
  5-player total -- 84% (98 of 116)
  Other 19 players -- 73% (120 of 165)
  All 24 players -- 78% (218 of 281)

Breaker won the game:

• Filler -- 71% (30 of 42)
  Ko P-C -- 91% (21 of 23)
  Pagulayan -- 72% (13 of 18)
  Ko P-Y -- 61% (11 of 18)
  Yoshioka -- 53% (8 of 15)
  5-player total -- 72% (83 of 116)
  Other 19 players -- 61% (101 of 165)
  All 24 players -- 65% (184 of 281)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:

• Filler -- 52% (22 of 42)
  Ko P-C -- 43% (10 of 23)
  Pagulayan -- 33% (6 of 18)
  Ko P-Y -- 39% (7 of 18)
  Yoshioka -- 20% (3 of 15)
  5-player total -- 41% (48 of 116)
  Other 19 players -- 32% (53 of 165)
  All 24 players -- 36% (101 of 281)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:

• Filler -- 58% (22 of 38)
  Ko P-C -- 56% (10 of 18)
  Pagulayan -- 40% (6 of 15)
  Ko P-Y -- 50% (7 of 14)
  Yoshioka -- 23% (3 of 13)
  5-player total -- 49% (48 of 98)
  Other 19 players -- 44% (53 of 120)
  All 24 players -- 46% (101 of 218)

 

[AtLarge]

More miscellany regarding break-and-run games:

• The two players with the highest B&R percentages in streamed matches were Thorpe at 67% (4 of 6) and Van Boening at 57% (4 of 7). But they appeared just once, in a match against each other.

• That Thorpe/SVB match was highest for B&R's at 62% overall (8 of 13), just edging out the Filler/Shaw match at 61% (11 of 18). Two other matches hit 50%+, Ko P-C/Filler at 53% (9 of 17) and Filler/Feijen at 50% (9 of 18).

• At the other extreme, the streamed match with the lowest B&R percentage was Gorst/Edwards at 14% (2 of 14).

• And, the only player who appeared on stream and did not record at least one B&R game was Woodward, but he had only 5 breaks. Melling and Kuribayashi also had one match without a B&R, but they each appeared twice and each recorded 2 B&R's in their other streamed match.

 

[gxman]

Long race 10b, Filler would be tough.

10b becoming too easy now on standard pockets.

Little Ko winning 21-23 of his breaks. See why he went
unscathed thru the tournament.

 

[sjm]

Thanks AtLarge
Compared with your stats for US Open 2019,
Successful breaks 78% for events
B&R on successful breaks 46% more than 43% in US Open
Break dry without fouling 17% less than 18% in US Open

That suggests that:
(a) this World 10 Ball is breaking slightly better than US Open (either cos of equipment/break rules or players mastered the break faster maybe because of the warm-up event Diamond Open used exactly same equipment and location)
and (b) 10ball break not as difficult as 9ball (to these pro players anyway). But yet we frequently hear players, folks say 10ball break is tougher than 9 ball

Good observations. I've long argued that for the elite, the ten ball break is no tougher than the nine ball break. Needless to say, when the stats pertain to the streamed matches at a WPA World Championship, they pertain to the most elite players in the world.

I can't, however, accept the assertion that the ten ball break is just as easy as the nine ball break if all pro players are considered in the mix. It's only just as easy for the truly elite. For amateurs, there's no question the ten ball break is harder, too.

Both nine ball and ten ball offer a stiff test at the pro level, and it's a great thing for pool that we now have a WPA sanctioned world championship event in both disciplines. Good for the fans and good for the players. Good for the game!

Great info here. Thanks, AtLarge.

 

[Johnny Rosato]

Thank you - AtLarge -