Fargorate handicapped-with alt breaks.

Willowbrook Wolfy

Your wushu is weak!
Gold Member
Looking for some opinions on this. The one tournament near me that reports to fargorate is run this way. Fargorate handicapped with alternating breaks. It’s always full with rates ranging from 400 to 700. But it just seems unfair to have it handicapped and alternating breaks. The best players are already giving up games. And in this format are also giving up shots/breaks.
 

Willowbrook Wolfy

Your wushu is weak!
Gold Member
It seems to me that if it is always full then they are doing it the right way.
Well I think it’s only a $20 entry. And always a full field. And it is great that the tournament is always full.

What I’m asking is this. It’s when the fargorates are farther apart that I see it being an issue. Example. So you have a 700 against a 600. Who are you betting on in a regular 7-4 race? Probably the 700. Now throw in alternating breaks. Who are you betting to win? I’m probably going with the 600 now. In this format. If I was playing SVB it would be a 9-3 race. With me getting 1/2 the breaks, I’d give him the first break and probably throw down my life savings on that match. Without alternating breaks I’d only throw down $100
 

hang-the-9

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I have not seen alternate breaks change things much for the outcome, but it would make a 600 be a bit more favored over a higher player. Remember the goal of a totally fair handicap is to have the weaker player win half the time, so if this format makes 400 players enter, it must be working. Anyone under 600 is not in any danger of breaking and running out or playing great safes unless these are easy small tables. It's only the players that have a good chance of a break and run that would be a bit more favored. Handicaps tend to make the stronger player play at near the top of the game to win anyway.
 

Willowbrook Wolfy

Your wushu is weak!
Gold Member
I have not seen alternate breaks change things much for the outcome, but it would make a 600 be a bit more favored over a higher player. Remember the goal of a totally fair handicap is to have the weaker player win half the time, so if this format makes 400 players enter, it must be working. Anyone under 600 is not in any danger of breaking and running out or playing great safes unless these are easy small tables. It's only the players that have a good chance of a break and run that would be a bit more favored. Handicaps tend to make the stronger player play at near the top of the game to win anyway.
I’m wondering if Mike Page has a different way of calculating fargorates in this type format. Cause if you think about it. In a 7-4 race. Let’s say the lower handicap wins 4-6. That lower handicapped player had 5 breaks. There is no way they’d get 5 breaks in a normal format. The player with the higher B&R percentage might have 2 breaks taken away with that score. The least breaks they’d have with a 4-6 score in reg format is 6.
 

Willowbrook Wolfy

Your wushu is weak!
Gold Member
I think AtLarge probably has numbers comparing alternate and winner breaks.
I can’t find it but I know for a fact, regardless of handicap, the guy/gal breaking statistically has a better chance of winning than if they are not breaking. At the bare minimum the breaker always has the chance to pop the 9 for a freebie at any level.
 

philly

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I can’t find it but I know for a fact, regardless of handicap, the guy/gal breaking statistically has a better chance of winning than if they are not breaking. At the bare minimum the breaker always has the chance to pop the 9 for a freebie at any level.
Here we go again with popping the 9.
Continue to try popping the 9 against a 650 Fargo and see what happens in the long run.
The trick to beating a player like that is keeping them in their chair and not relying on popping the 9
just because you can, missing, and letting them back to the table.
It's usually over when they get back to the table.
Anyhow, around these parts it's always alternate breaks.
 

Willowbrook Wolfy

Your wushu is weak!
Gold Member
Here we go again with popping the 9.
Continue to try popping the 9 against a 650 Fargo and see what happens in the long run.
The trick to beating a player like that is keeping them in their chair and not relying on popping the 9
just because you can, missing, and letting them back to the table.
It's usually over when they get back to the table.
Anyhow, around these parts it's always alternate breaks.
Yeah but my break usually gets me shape on the 1, usually makes a wing, and pops the 9 1/10 times on avg. I never go over 20 without popping a 9 in. I normally pop the 9 once each time I play the ghost. But not always. I’m not trying to make the 9 it just goes.

Is it alternating with handicaps. Seems like the more I think about it the guy giving the games up should break first. It kind of evens out the scenario.
 
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philly

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Yeah but my break usually gets me shape on the 1, usually makes a wing, and pops the 9 1/10 times on avg. I never go over 20 without popping a 9 in. I normally pop the 9 once each time I play the ghost. But not always. I’m not trying to make the 9 it just goes.

Is it alternating with handicaps. Seems like the more I think about it the guy giving the games up should break first. It kind of evens out the scenario.
Handicap or not, it's alternating breaks in rotation games around these parts......and rack your own,
so the 9 comes up on the break, jump cues allowed, and 3 foul rule in effect.
 

Willowbrook Wolfy

Your wushu is weak!
Gold Member
Handicap or not, it's alternating breaks in rotation games around these parts......and rack your own,
so the 9 comes up on the break, jump cues allowed, and 3 foul rule in effect.
Seems more are going to that format. Just getting back into the tournament play. Not used to this alternating break stuff or even rack your own. Thanks for the input!
 

hang-the-9

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I’m wondering if Mike Page has a different way of calculating fargorates in this type format. Cause if you think about it. In a 7-4 race. Let’s say the lower handicap wins 4-6. That lower handicapped player had 5 breaks. There is no way they’d get 5 breaks in a normal format. The player with the higher B&R percentage might have 2 breaks taken away with that score. The least breaks they’d have with a 4-6 score in reg format is 6.

Fargo does not look at the format, just win/loss. The game rules do not get put in. It is not a game by game or a set by set format, it is based on hundreds of games over time, and in that time the overall better player will end up ahead no matter the rules are playing even. Then that predicted score gets put into the system for the rating and the handicap using Fargo. So if the system sees a 700 beating a 500 9-3, that is the handicap it puts in for the match up between the two ratings.

Look at the pro events, changing break rules, 3 point rule, alternate break, winner break, the same 10 players end up in the final 4 don't they?

That is why Fargo is pretty small motions and a large scale, playing in some event where you got bad or good rolls won't dump you down or up in level much. But if you have a clear pattern over say 10, 20 tournaments, that is where the rating solidifies.
 

Bob Jewett

AZB Osmium Member
Staff member
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For the vast majority of players under 600, the break is a disadvantage. They scratch on the break far more often than make the 9, as part of it. You have to get up above 700 FargoRate before the statistic "percentage of games won by breaker" climbs much above 50%. Here, for example, are AtLarge's statistics from a Derby City 9-ball. Bottom line, breaker won only 56% and look at the champions in the mix.

Thurs., Jan. 27
Joshua Filler (.897) defeated Darren Appleton (.868) 9-8​
Fri., Jan. 28
Corey Deuel (.932) d. Darren Appleton (.938) 9-8​
Efren Reyes d. Michael Deitchman 9-5​
Sat., Jan. 29
Max Eberle (.935) d. Konrad Juszczyszyn (.857) 9-7​
Filler (.953) d. Mieszko Fortunski (.894) 9-7​
Shane Van Boening (.924) d. Fedor Gorst (.912) 9-7​
Mario He d. Carlo Biado 9-6​
Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz d. John Morra 9-5​
Filler d. Jayson Shaw 9-7​
Sanchez-Ruiz (.888) d. Roland Garcia (.881) 9-6 (Semifinal)​
Sanchez-Ruiz (.951) d. Filler (.778) 9-3 (Finals)​
Overall results
Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul) -- 73% (69 of 95) for match winners, 63% (46 of 73) for match losers, and 68% (115 of 168) in total​
Breaker won the game -- 63% (60 of 95) for match winners, 47% (34 of 73) for match losers, and 56% (94 of 168) in total​
Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 33% (31 of 95) for match winners, 26% (19 of 73) for match losers, and 30% (50 of 168) in total​

Here's a trick to try for 600-rated players: "You can have all the breaks if you give me a game on the wire going to 7."
 

hang-the-9

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
For the vast majority of players under 600, the break is a disadvantage. They scratch on the break far more often than make the 9, as part of it. You have to get up above 700 FargoRate before the statistic "percentage of games won by breaker" climbs much above 50%. Here, for example, are AtLarge's statistics from a Derby City 9-ball. Bottom line, breaker won only 56% and look at the champions in the mix.

Thurs., Jan. 27
Joshua Filler (.897) defeated Darren Appleton (.868) 9-8​
Fri., Jan. 28
Corey Deuel (.932) d. Darren Appleton (.938) 9-8​
Efren Reyes d. Michael Deitchman 9-5​
Sat., Jan. 29
Max Eberle (.935) d. Konrad Juszczyszyn (.857) 9-7​
Filler (.953) d. Mieszko Fortunski (.894) 9-7​
Shane Van Boening (.924) d. Fedor Gorst (.912) 9-7​
Mario He d. Carlo Biado 9-6​
Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz d. John Morra 9-5​
Filler d. Jayson Shaw 9-7​
Sanchez-Ruiz (.888) d. Roland Garcia (.881) 9-6 (Semifinal)​
Sanchez-Ruiz (.951) d. Filler (.778) 9-3 (Finals)​
Overall results
Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul) -- 73% (69 of 95) for match winners, 63% (46 of 73) for match losers, and 68% (115 of 168) in total​
Breaker won the game -- 63% (60 of 95) for match winners, 47% (34 of 73) for match losers, and 56% (94 of 168) in total​
Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 33% (31 of 95) for match winners, 26% (19 of 73) for match losers, and 30% (50 of 168) in total​

Here's a trick to try for 600-rated players: "You can have all the breaks if you give me a game on the wire going to 7."


I would always give someone the breaks at my level or lower vs giving up balls to them or games. I feel a lot safer that they won't run out and I will have good chances in the rack over the fact that I will not make a mistake on the 7,8,9 and leave them a one shot or a few shot win. Even with using a template rack I see a lot of players failing to pocket a ball on the break at the B+ and even A- level or lower (which is 550-600 Fargo). For lower level players giving up the break is probably as much of a "move" as saying you would take some of their balls off the table in 8 ball. In fact I know of a good player, over 600 Fargo, that lets the opponent break on a tournament I play in with him, and I know why. He is good enough to run out off a dry break or play a good safe and knows the chances of a dry break is pretty high. Any race under 5 should be alternate break, even race to 7 really should be alternate, even if it's to give the illusion of being fair, no complaining of a short race with winner break then by the players.
 
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