Break Stats -- 2022 International 9-Ball Open, November 2022

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2022 International 9-Ball Open played October 31 - November 5, 2022 at the Sheraton Norfolk Waterside Hotel in Norfolk, VA with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats. Jayson Shaw won the event, defeating Wiktor Zielinski in the final match.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot tables with 4¼" corner pockets on the feature table (not sure about pocket size on the other tables);​
- blue Simonis 860 cloth;​
- Aramith Tournament balls with a red-measles cue ball;​
- Accu-Rack racking template;​
- referee racks with the 9-ball on the foot spot (2-ball not necessarily in back location);​
- alternate breaks from a box -- 9" to each side of the long string;​
- no illegal-break rule, but referees to enforce a forceful-break requirement;​
- on the feature table only, a 30-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack;​
- foul on all balls;​
- jump cues allowed;​
- all slop counts; and​
- lag for the opening break in each match.​

This was a 128-player event, with double elimination down to 16 players (8 on the winners' side and 8 on the one-loss side), and then single elimination to the end. These stats are for all 15 matches (240 games) played in the Last 16 (single-elimination) portion of the event. Seven of these 15 matches were played on the feature table (Matches 2, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, and 15 below), and the other 8 matches were played on tables not in the feature arena.

The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream. TPAs were provided for only the 7 matches on the feature table.

Friday, Nov. 4 (Matches 1-8 in the round of 16 players, Matches 9-12 in the Quarterfinals)
1. Albin Ouschan defeated Aloysius Yapp 10-8​
2. Fedor Gorst (.986 -- probably calculated incorrectly) d. Moritz Neuhausen (.621) 10-2​
3. Wiktor Zielinski d. Ko Ping Chung 10-9​
4. Joshua Filler d. Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz 10-8​
5. Jayson Shaw d. Abdullah Alyousef 10-4​
6. Jonas Souto d. Konrad Juszczyszyn 10-6​
7. Ko Pin Yi (.896) d. Roberto Gomez (.780) 10-4​
8. Mario He d. Alex Kazakis 10-5​
9. Gorst d. Ouschan 10-3​
10. Zielinski (.937) d. Filler (.855) 10-6​
11. Shaw (.927) d. Souto (.837) 10-3​
12. Ko PY d. He 10-6​

Saturday, Nov. 5
13. Zielinski (.928) d. Gorst (.895) 10-7 (Semifinal)​
14. Shaw (.966 ) d. Ko PY (.930) 10-6 (Semifinal)​
15. Shaw (.937) d. Zielinski (.895) 13-10 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 83% (99 of 120)​
Match losers -- 75% (90 of 120)​
Total -- 79% (189 of 240)
Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 70% (84 of 120)​
Match losers -- 43% (51 of 120)​
Total -- 56% (135 of 240)
Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 36% (43 of 120)​
Match losers -- 22% (26 of 120)​
Total -- 29% (69 of 240)
Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 43% (43 of 99)​
Match losers -- 29% (26 of 90)​
Total -- 37% (69 of 189)

Here's a breakdown of the 240 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 120 (50% of the 240 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 69 (29%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 1 (0%)​
Breaker lost the game: 8 (3%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 14 (6%)​
Breaker lost the game: 28 (12%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 56% (135 of 240) of all games,​
He won 63% (120 of 189) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 29% (15 of 51) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 69 break-and-run games represented 29% of all 240 games, 51% of the 135 games won by the breaker, and 37% of the 189 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 69 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 4-pack (by Shaw), 4 alternate-break 3-packs (1 each by Ouschan, He, Gorst, and Shaw), 5 alternate-break 2-packs, and 43 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 69 B&R games include 4 9-balls on the break (1.7% of all 240 breaks) -- 2 by Zielinski and 1 each by Ko PC and He.
 
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Miscellany from the data for the 2022 International 9-Ball Open:
[This relates only to the 15 single-elimination matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once, by Souto in a B&R win.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.3 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5.

• Number of innings:
52% (124 of 240) of the games ended in one inning – 69 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 55 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
38% (90 of 240) of the games ended on the second or third inning.​
11% (26 of 240) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's third visit to the table, with the longest game ending on the non-breaker's 9th visit.​

• 39% (93 of 240) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 37% (69 of 189)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 89% (8 of 9)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 38% (16 of 42)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 72% of the time (169 of 236)​
- Won the game in a later inning 10% of the time (24 of 236)​
- Lost the game 18% of the time (43 of 236)​
[Note -- total games used here are 236 rather than 240 to eliminate the 4 games in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• For the 14 races to 10 (i.e., excluding the Finals race to 13) the match loser won an average of 5.5 games. Only one match went to hill/hill; the fewest games won in a match was 2.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at about 161 minutes, was Zielinski d. Ko PC 10-9. The two matches that were highest in average minutes per game, at 8.8, were Ouschan d. Yapp 10-8 and Filler d. Sanchez-Ruiz 10-8. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The shortest match in elapsed time, at 76½ minutes, was Gorst d. Neuhausen 10-2. The two match that were lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.8, were Shaw d. Ko P-Y and Shaw d. Zielinski.

• The average elapsed time for the 14 races to 10 was 109 minutes. The average minutes per game were:
7.0 for the 14 races to 10​
6.8 for all 15 matches​
5.7 for the 7 matches played with a shot clock​
7.8 for the 8 matches played without a shot clock​

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 26.7 games, other fouls 1 for every 6.9 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2.5 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 41% of all games and in about 57% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
Great stats. Thanks. I think your stats evidence that the players are getting more accustomed to this break rule. The "breaker won the game" stat you indicated after the European Open of 50% jived with my sense that players were struggling mightily with the transition. I think the "breaker won the game" stat of 56% (meaning, in rough terms, that the breaker wins four of every seven racks) at the International is about where I'd like to see it.

As one who attended both events, I'd say that the pockets played looser at the International than at the US Open 9-ball. I was told that the tables used at the International were the EXACT same tables (not to be interpreted as same brand or model but the actual tables) used at Turning Stone in September.

The eye test confirmed what I was told. A few more balls poorly struck were finding the pockets at the International than at the US Open 9-ball, which also claims to use 4 1/4", but there the eye test makes the claim believable.

Whatever the claimed or real pocket measurements were, the tables at the International were fair, but by no means tight.
 
... As one who attended both events, I'd say that the pockets played looser at the International than at the US Open 9-ball. I was told that the tables used at the International were the EXACT same tables (not to be interpreted as same brand or model but the actual tables) used at Turning Stone in September.

The eye test confirmed what I was told. A few more balls poorly struck were finding the pockets at the International than at the US Open 9-ball, which also claims to use 4 1/4", but there the eye test makes the claim believable.

Whatever the claimed or real pocket measurements were, the tables at the International were fair, but by no means tight.
At that Turning Stone event, the streaming table was said to have "pro-cut" pockets, but somewhere I got the impression that this now means 4¼" rather than 4½" for new Diamond tables. The stats for the International 9-Ball and the US Open 9-Ball were quite similar (Int'l. first, then US Open):

Successful breaks -- 79%, 79%​
Breaker won game -- 56%, 58%​
B&R games on all breaks -- 29%, 32%​
B&R games on successful breaks -- 37%, 41%​
Games ending in 1 inning -- 52%, 54%​
Games won by first player to make a ball after the break -- 82%, 80%​
Games per missed shot (approx.) -- 2.5, 2.6​
Games with one or more safeties -- 41%, 40%​
Average minutes per game -- 6.8, 6.8 (a mix of matches with and without shot clocks for both events)​
 
At that Turning Stone event, the streaming table was said to have "pro-cut" pockets, but somewhere I got the impression that this now means 4¼" rather than 4½" for new Diamond tables. The stats for the International 9-Ball and the US Open 9-Ball were quite similar (Int'l. first, then US Open):

Successful breaks -- 79%, 79%​
Breaker won game -- 56%, 58%​
B&R games on all breaks -- 29%, 32%​
B&R games on successful breaks -- 37%, 41%​
Games ending in 1 inning -- 52%, 54%​
Games won by first player to make a ball after the break -- 82%, 80%​
Games per missed shot (approx.) -- 2.5, 2.6​
Games with one or more safeties -- 41%, 40%​
Average minutes per game -- 6.8, 6.8 (a mix of matches with and without shot clocks for both events)​
Thanks for that.
 
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