23DenaliBDE
Well-known member
Adding to my own idea. This adds additional strategy such as, if Player A is looking at a run out, do you take it or try and play one good safety then run out and retain the break?
which favors the higher-rated player, winner break or alt. break?
- Thread starter evergruven
- Start date
That's what I thought until I saw the analysis. It turns out that winner, loser or alternate breaks all favor the better player by the same percentage.
(The key to the analysis was pointed out by someone in another thread. I had to do the full calculations on some examples to convince myself.)
tomatoshooter
Well-known member
Winner breaks favors the weaker player. As long as the weaker player can still string some racks, he has a chance to stay at the table.
Really, I don't think it makes a big difference. When you get pros that are shooting over .900, it comes down to who happened to have a little longer between mistakes, or happened to have a couple of mistakes in quick succession. Alternate breaks means that your opponent can't run out the set, but it also means it's hard to put together several racks.
I would really like to see a loser breaks format, although, with top level players, that's pretty much what alternate break is 80% of the time.
Really, I don't think it makes a big difference. When you get pros that are shooting over .900, it comes down to who happened to have a little longer between mistakes, or happened to have a couple of mistakes in quick succession. Alternate breaks means that your opponent can't run out the set, but it also means it's hard to put together several racks.
I would really like to see a loser breaks format, although, with top level players, that's pretty much what alternate break is 80% of the time.
That's surprising. Well, I guess it also depends on who the players are that were analyzed.
I think what favors the better player, is that they're the better player.
This is pretty counterintuitive. Here is a data dive on the issue
So you're down 4-0 in a race to 5. You're thinking,
it's not over;
I've done this before;
focus;
stay down;
one game at a time
First, though, you turn to your opponent and say,
"hey buddy...you get ALL the breaks from here..."
Just what Shane wanted to hear.
Data dive does not explain special cases.
Special case like a pro racker tweaking the rack. Whether its alternate or winner racks, that a lesson I will never forget from a Hall of Famer.
Check the rack if money is on the line. Fargo wont save people from being cheated.
The only hard preference I have is for alternate breaks for short races like the Mosconi Cup. The dramatic Sky-Ouschan match on the last day of 2018 was only made possible by the alternate break format. Without it Sky never would've been able to get out of his chair.
For longer races I can see the argument for winner breaks, since it allows for comebacks from huge deficits.
Of course in other sports "winner breaks" would be a joke. Imagine a football team getting to receive a kickoff every time it scored a TD. Or a basketball team keeping possession every time it scored a FG or FT.
For longer races I can see the argument for winner breaks, since it allows for comebacks from huge deficits.
Of course in other sports "winner breaks" would be a joke. Imagine a football team getting to receive a kickoff every time it scored a TD. Or a basketball team keeping possession every time it scored a FG or FT.
If you only include two probabilities -- the percentage that A will win against B on A's break and the percentage B will win against A on B's break -- then those percentages give the same match chances for all the break formats. The main theoretical requirement is that the history of the match and the score does not affect those two percentages.
If you include psychological factors somehow -- the players' attitudes, "spine", momentum and so forth -- those may enter into the calculations, but that path is unclear. It is common for fans to say things like, "He gets really good momentum when he starts to put a pack together," and that would be an argument for winner breaks improving that player's chances against someone who doesn't have the "momentum" effect in their game.
The main idea about this in sports is the "hot hand" effect, originally in basketball. The first serious study indicated there was no effect. More recent studies seem to show there may be a small effect in some people. Here's what The Wiki has to say about it:
Hot hand - Wikipedia
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Very enlightening, thank you, Mike.
I wonder if the "Toyotas" inability (presumed) to run out very much on their breaks thus allowing the "Ferraris" at least one chance at the table nearly every rack is what is accounting for the nearly identical outcomes.
Also, break skill, I think, is a big factor. Some players work harder practicing breaks than others. The ability to read the rack and the table, and figure out the right place to break from and the right speed is a skill.If you only include two probabilities -- the percentage that A will win against B on A's break and the percentage B will win against A on B's break -- then those percentages give the same match chances for all the break formats. The main theoretical requirement is that the history of the match and the score does not affect those two percentages.
If you include psychological factors somehow -- the players' attitudes, "spine", momentum and so forth -- those may enter into the calculations, but that path is unclear. It is common for fans to say things like, "He gets really good momentum when he starts to put a pack together," and that would be an argument for winner breaks improving that player's chances against someone who doesn't have the "momentum" effect in their game.
The main idea about this in sports is the "hot hand" effect, originally in basketball. The first serious study indicated there was no effect. More recent studies seem to show there may be a small effect in some people. Here's what The Wiki has to say about it:
Hot hand - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
On the other hand, I can see the reverse happening with alternate breaks and a breaker who just hits them hard, giving up control of the table more often.
23DenaliBDE
Well-known member
That was my thinking. I would expect a different outcome with players closer to the same skill level but I could be wrong
Winner breaks favors comebacks...which in turn favors underdogs. Especially when both players can run out. Seen some very strong players get shut out after a miss or dry break.
Alternate break race to 7... I'm up 5 to 2....very hard to lose from there because I'm breaking at leat 2 or 3 times gauranteed.
Alternate break race to 7... I'm up 5 to 2....very hard to lose from there because I'm breaking at leat 2 or 3 times gauranteed.
Totally agree with your first paragraph.
Now if it takes more than 2 turns to get out of a rack...it's really anyone's game.
After awhile pool gets like card games and you need opportunities to make the money.
tomatoshooter
Well-known member
It just occurred to me that the sports that hand over possession, like basketball and football, have a clock. The sports that don't, like baseball and volleyball, don't have a clock. So, loser breaks, 30 minute match clock, anyone?
tomatoshooter
Well-known member
I don't know about the "Hot Hand" effect but I can certainly testify to the devastating rusults of the "Not Hand" effect.