My Fargorate progression

[mikepage]

What does that mean?

The question was whether the new player has a "starter rating," and I replied he doesn't have one.

Here is what that means. Generally FargoRate has no "start." A batting average has no "start,' right? A bowling average has no "start." If the first 9 games you play are against a 450 and you win 3 (a third of them), you will be a 350 with a robustness of 9. If by chance you had a bad day and only win 1, you will be in the 100s and if you got lucky and won 7, you will have a preliminary rating that is Mosconi-team like.

Things will even out in time and by the time you have a few hundred games, you'll be reasonably close to where you belong. We say--somewhat arbitrarily-- that at 200 games you have a "Fargo Rating." Before 200 games you don't.

In the early going, it could be we know you are an APA 5 or we know you are a pro or a beginner. So we have a mechanism to insert a guess, the local knowledge part. League Operators use this. Perhaps you guess the player is a 400. This has no impact on Fargo Ratings and no impact on any opponent. But what happens is there is a performance rating of, say, 120, based on 9 games. And there is a guess of 400. So we imagine there are 200-9 fake games played at 400 speed. So this person would see a preliminary rating of maybe 385, a weighted average. As the player approaches 200 games the impact of the guess diminishes to zero. Once again, this is outside of Fargo Ratings and is just useful to be able to include in a reasonable way players who don't yet have a Fargo Rating.

Most players in the system never have a starter guess. They just have a volatile preliminary rating in the early going. We think people should ignore anything based on a starter guess unless they know where it comes from.

 

[tomatoshooter]

Yeah. I couldn’t believe I lost. I thought I would win the whole tournament. It was my first time at this place and I had never seen any of the players before as it was a state away. The one guy that beat me didn’t even have a cue call. Just made shots.

I can see the “pride” in one’s FargoRate. You’d have to really, really, really, be disciplined enough to not let your pride keep you from letting your legs out to run. If you were trying to stall.

I played my first Fargorate tournament about three years ago. I played out of my mind two matches and fairly normal the other 4 or 5 and finished third. The next night I played in the second one finishing just out of the money. A week later my Fargorate was 696, WTF. It's been going down ever since. The last several Fargorate tournaments I've played in I can't seem to beat the low 600 guys. Such is pool, very inconsistent.

I like the fact that Fargo is a way to track my improvement and gauge my current level, but I sort of don't care about it, mainly because it's not high enough to impress anyone. I can't say it isn't an accurate reflection of how I've performed, it seems to average out quite accurately. That's got to be tough watching your Fargo go down like that. Most of the games I have in the system are 9 ball, a game that many of the nuances escape me. I seem to make a positional error on the 7 ball a lot, when there's nowhere to hide. I wish there were more races in 8 ball, I'm not sure why there aren't. I feel like I'm usually able to influence the game, even if I'm not in a strong position.

 

[calcuttaman]

In the early going, it could be we know you are an APA 5 or we know you are a pro or a beginner. So we have a mechanism to insert a guess, the local knowledge part. League Operators use this. Perhaps you guess the player is a 400. This has no impact on Fargo Ratings and no impact on any opponent. But what happens is there is a performance rating of, say, 120, based on 9 games. And there is a guess of 400. So we imagine there are 200-9 fake games played at 400 speed. So this person would see a preliminary rating of maybe 385, a weighted average. As the player approaches 200 games the impact of the guess diminishes to zero. Once again, this is outside of Fargo Ratings and is just useful to be able to include in a reasonable way players who don't yet have a Fargo Rating.

Mike, could you put this into a formula that we might understand with an example? Someone with 100 games in the system. Thanks

 

[Rocket354]

So we have a mechanism to insert a guess, the local knowledge part. League Operators use this. Perhaps you guess the player is a 400. This has no impact on Fargo Ratings and no impact on any opponent. But what happens is there is a performance rating of, say, 120, based on 9 games. And there is a guess of 400. So we imagine there are 200-9 fake games played at 400 speed. So this person would see a preliminary rating of maybe 385, a weighted average. As the player approaches 200 games the impact of the guess diminishes to zero. Once again, this is outside of Fargo Ratings and is just useful to be able to include in a reasonable way players who don't yet have a Fargo Rating.

Mike, can you reconcile the two bolded portions? Does the starter rating influence a person's listed (preliminary) fargo rating or not?

 

[mikepage]

Mike, could you put this into a formula that we might understand with an example? Thanks

Sure. Let's say a player new to Fargorate is a well known APA 6 or B player in some area, and the people in the area know from experience this should not be too far from, I don't know, 530. And the player is assigned a starter guess of 530.

Scenario 1: The first 40 games generate a performance rating of 460

What people would see as a PRELIMINARY rating is a blend of the 460 and the 530. 40 games is 20% of the way to being established, so the 460 is weighted by 20%. The 530 guess is weighted by 80%

(0.20)*460 + (0.80)*530 = 516

If after 160 games the performance rating is still at 460, it is believed more. Now the player is most of the way to being established and the calculation is
(0.80)*460 + (0.20)*530 = 474

Once the player has 200 or more games, any assigned starter guess is just ignored. The performance rating IS the rating and we call it a Fargo Rating.

 

[mikepage]

Mike, can you reconcile the two bolded portions? Does the starter rating influence a person's listed (preliminary) fargo rating or not?

Yes, though we would not call it a preliminary "Fargo" rating because it has a part that has nothing to do with FargoRate. The "preliminary rating," the number with a P after it, is a blend of the not-yet-established-Fargo-performance rating (the part that could reasonably be called a preliminary Fargo Rating) and the guess, if there is a guess.

So for players who have no starter guess set, the number you see with a P after it is a preliminary Fargo Rating. It comes only from data, and we're just not yet willing to call it a Fargo Rating because it is not based on enough information.

If there is a starter guess set, then the preliminary rating doesn't come from just data. It has influence from somebody's judgment.

 

[calcuttaman]

(0.20)*460 + (0.80)*530 = 516

If after 160 games the performance rating is still at 460, it is believed more. Now the player is most of the way to being established and the calculation is
(0.80)*460 + (0.20)*530 = 474

Once the player has 200 or more games, any assigned starter guess is just ignored. The performance rating IS the rating and we call it a Fargo Rating.

Thanks Mike. Is there a formula we could use to get a players performance rating when they're under 200 games?

 

[pw98]

I like the fact that Fargo is a way to track my improvement and gauge my current level, but I sort of don't care about it, mainly because it's not high enough to impress anyone. I can't say it isn't an accurate reflection of how I've performed, it seems to average out quite accurately. That's got to be tough watching your Fargo go down like that. Most of the games I have in the system are 9 ball, a game that many of the nuances escape me. I seem to make a positional error on the 7 ball a lot, when there's nowhere to hide. I wish there were more races in 8 ball, I'm not sure why there aren't. I feel like I'm usually able to influence the game, even if I'm not in a strong position.

I feel the exact opposite about 8-ball. Around here the only fargo tournaments are 8-ball and I am much better versed in the nuances of 9-ball and feel I play significantly stronger in it. My fargorate started out at 645 when it was all 9-ball games and has fallen to about 600 with the addition of only 8-ball games.

 

[The_JV]

I like the fact that Fargo is a way to track my improvement ...

On the app that do have that nice line graph. I don't know if it's plotted with any real accuracy but it would be nice if they simply provided a field that displayed the value of the cursor. I mean you have the data to plot the line. Why not tell us what that number was...?

 

[fuggles]

On the app that do have that nice line graph. I don't know if it's plotted with any real accuracy but it would be nice if they simply provided a field that displayed the value of the cursor. I mean you have the data to plot the line. Why not tell us what that number was...?
View attachment 709483

Agree. The graph is pretty useless as is. Also it would be nice if you hover over the bar graph it would also give the numbers for the particular range.

 

[tomatoshooter]

I feel the exact opposite about 8-ball. Around here the only fargo tournaments are 8-ball and I am much better versed in the nuances of 9-ball and feel I play significantly stronger in it. My fargorate started out at 645 when it was all 9-ball games and has fallen to about 600 with the addition of only 8-ball games.

Sounds like you'd beat me at either game. I'm trying to put some thought into what strategy. I don't like playing to not lose, but since I can't run out like the pros, maybe I shouldn't try to play the same game as them. I am hesitant to build a game around lesser skills instead of building my skills, though.

 

[skip100]

On the app that do have that nice line graph. I don't know if it's plotted with any real accuracy but it would be nice if they simply provided a field that displayed the value of the cursor. I mean you have the data to plot the line. Why not tell us what that number was...?
View attachment 709483

There have been multiple requests for this functionality with no response. Hopefully it will come someday.

 

[DCMike]

Thanks Mike. Is there a formula we could use to get a players performance rating when they're under 200 games?

You can use: (F - S) / % + S

(Starter rating S subtracted from preliminary (unestablished) fargorate F, then divided by %, where % represents the percentage of games completed towards establishment. This computation is then added to the starter rating.)

For example: with a starter rating of S = 400 and preliminary rating of F = 379 based on 70 games in the system (which gives a percent of % = 70/200 = 0.35)

(379 - 400) / 0.35 = -21/ 0.35 = -60

Add that to the starter rating to get 340 as the speed

 

[iusedtoberich]

I played my second fargorate tournament on Friday a week ago. I was playing as a 475. A couple of the guys knew me and I think they rated me there with the the tournament director. Some other players also did not have an established rating, and they were playing as a 425. That was fine by me, as its well under where I think I'll end up, and I bought myself in the player auction again

I played 3 matches. Lost, won, lost. My first match was against Shaun, 645 fargo with over 1000 robustness. We have known each other for 15 or 20 years. He usually gives me the 6 when we gamble. I went to 3 games, he went to 4. He beat me pretty easily 4-1.

My next two matches were against players I've never met before. The first was Justin. He played as a 445. But I looked up his rating when I got home, it was 430 with 55 robustness. We both went to 4, and I won 4-2. Unless he was having a bad night, I felt I could have spotted him the 7 and gotten the money.

The last match was against Matthew, who is a 441 with 528 robustness (looked up when I got home again). He beat me 4-1. He made balls from everywhere, but I still felt like I'd like to gamble him even.

After I lost, I played a guy who I've known for 15 years. He's usually gotten the best of me. We played a set to 7, even. I beat him 7-0, and I really don't think I missed a ball I went for the whole set. I can't remember ever blanking someone for the cash. I played super well. He is a 595 with about 1500 robustness. He did play poorly on his end, but I pretty much got out every time he missed. It's funny, we were warming up together before the tournament started, and he beat me the 3 or 4 games we played then for practice.

I guess if you go my two tournament performances thus far I'm in the low 400's, but if you go by my gambling I'm off the charts! ha ha.

It was also my first tournament that used digital pool brackets. That was really neat. The brackets would text me when my match was up, with the opponent, table, and handicap assignment. It was quite slick. DCC is stuck in the MS DOS era.

Unfortunately, my fargorate has not been updated with the matches from this second tournament, even though its been 6 days now. I don't know what's going on. The digipool brackets are online, and they say they report to fargo for this event. On my first tournament which was about 1 month ago, I can't find the brackets anywhere online, but the games are in fargo. This one is the opposite. Go figure.

After the tournament, I gambled all night long until about 6am. I haven't done that in years. They were random games, we all played each other, and some partner games. They aren't relevant to the fargo ratings as I didn't know any of the players, their names or ratings, and just played everyone even. I did super well, and went on FB marketplace the next day and bought some super nice machinist tools locally with the dough I did get a flat tire on the way home, but even changing the tire was fun

Until next time.

 

[fastone371]

View attachment 710563

I played my second fargorate tournament on Friday a week ago. I was playing as a 475. A couple of the guys knew me and I think they rated me there with the the tournament director. Some other players also did not have an established rating, and they were playing as a 425. That was fine by me, as its well under where I think I'll end up, and I bought myself in the player auction again

I played 3 matches. Lost, won, lost. My first match was against Shaun, 645 fargo with over 1000 robustness. We have known each other for 15 or 20 years. He usually gives me the 6 when we gamble. I went to 3 games, he went to 4. He beat me pretty easily 4-1.

My next two matches were against players I've never met before. The first was Justin. He played as a 445. But I looked up his rating when I got home, it was 430 with 55 robustness. We both went to 4, and I won 4-2. Unless he was having a bad night, I felt I could have spotted him the 7 and gotten the money.

The last match was against Matthew, who is a 441 with 528 robustness (looked up when I got home again). He beat me 4-1. He made balls from everywhere, but I still felt like I'd like to gamble him even.

After I lost, I played a guy who I've known for 15 years. He's usually gotten the best of me. We played a set to 7, even. I beat him 7-0, and I really don't think I missed a ball I went for the whole set. I can't remember ever blanking someone for the cash. I played super well. He is a 595 with about 1500 robustness. He did play poorly on his end, but I pretty much got out every time he missed. It's funny, we were warming up together before the tournament started, and he beat me the 3 or 4 games we played then for practice.

I guess if you go my two tournament performances thus far I'm in the low 400's, but if you go by my gambling I'm off the charts! ha ha.

It was also my first tournament that used digital pool brackets. That was really neat. The brackets would text me when my match was up, with the opponent, table, and handicap assignment. It was quite slick. DCC is stuck in the MS DOS era.

Unfortunately, my fargorate has not been updated with the matches from this second tournament, even though its been 6 days now. I don't know what's going on. The digipool brackets are online, and they say they report to fargo for this event. On my first tournament which was about 1 month ago, I can't find the brackets anywhere online, but the games are in fargo. This one is the opposite. Go figure.

After the tournament, I gambled all night long until about 6am. I haven't done that in years. They were random games, we all played each other, and some partner games. They aren't relevant to the fargo ratings as I didn't know any of the players, their names or ratings, and just played everyone even. I did super well, and went on FB marketplace the next day and bought some super nice machinist tools locally with the dough I did get a flat tire on the way home, but even changing the tire was fun

Until next time.

View attachment 710574

Thats a nice score on the levels.

 

[iusedtoberich]

My second tournament just got entered in. Unestablished rating went up a a few points to 398, robustness 25.

 

[Jimmorrison]

You better jump at a 400 and under, while you still can

 

[Coos Cues]

You better jump at a 400 and under, while you still can

Or better yet enter in the Western BCA championships and rob the silver 2 division. Don't worry no one will care, they never do.

 

[iusedtoberich]

You better jump at a 400 and under, while you still can

Or better yet enter in the Western BCA championships and rob the silver 2 division. Don't worry no one will care, they never do.

It's funny, some of the guys were saying this is awesome for me, and I should be happy my (unestablished) rating is where it is, and do my best to keep it low when it gets established. It was a point of bragging for the rating to be low. I told them I was really trying to win, buying myself in the calcutta, and just getting flat beat, and didn't want my rating low. ha ha.

 

[David in FL]

On the app that do have that nice line graph. I don't know if it's plotted with any real accuracy but it would be nice if they simply provided a field that displayed the value of the cursor. I mean you have the data to plot the line. Why not tell us what that number was...?
View attachment 709483

I understand what you're saying and don't really disagree, but is it really that hard to interpolate?

Does it really matter if that datapoint is 676 or 677?