Stats -- Shane Van Boening vs. Fedor Gorst 10-Ball Race to 120, August 2024

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Here are some results from the Shane Van Boening vs. Fedor Gorst 10-ball match played at Railyard Billiards & Sports Pub in Louisville, KY on August 15-17, 2024. Pay-per-view streaming was provided by Xpool. Van Boening won the match 120 - 116, going from a 10-game deficit after Game 206 to the 4-game win 30 games later.

The main commentators were Scott Frost and Jason Sword, with occasional assistance from room owner Kyle Ferguson, Steven Wyatt, and (briefly) Hayden Ernst.

This match was a race to 120 game wins played over 3 days. Here are the scores at the end of each day, with Van Boening's score first:
Day 1 -- 40 - 36​
Day 2 -- 40 - 37 (2-day total 80 - 73)​
Day 3 -- 40 - 43​
Total -- 120 - 116​

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- 9-foot Diamond table with 4¼" corner pockets;​
- 2-week-old blue Simonis 860 cloth;​
- Aramith Tournament balls with a red-spots cue ball;​
- Magic Ball Rack racking template;​
- rack your own, with the location of the balls (other than the 1-ball and 10-ball) determined by a computerized random-rack generator;​
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- call shots;​
- early 10-balls are spotted immediately;​
- 3-foul rule in effect (no violations);​
- jump cues allowed; and​
- no shot clock.​

■ Van Boenng broke 120 times -- successful 101 times (resulting in 65 game wins and 36 losses), 3 fouls (all losses), and 16 dry (4 wins, 12 losses).

■ Gorst broke 116 times -- successful 89 times (resulting in 61 game wins and 28 losses), 4 fouls (all losses), and 23 dry (4 wins, 19 losses).

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Van Boening -- 84% (101 of 120)​
Gorst -- 77% (89 of 116)​
Total -- 81% (190 of 236)​

Breaker won game:
Van Boening -- 58% (69 of 120)​
Gorst -- 56% (65 of 116)​
Total -- 57% (134 of 236)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
Van Boening -- 37% (44 of 120)​
Gorst -- 38% (44 of 116)​
Total -- 37% (88 of 236)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Van Boening -- 44% (44 of 101)​
Gorst -- 49% (44 of 89)​
Total -- 46% (88 of 190)​

Fouls and foul rates: [Note: "games at the table" means total games less opponent's B&R games.]
Van Boening -- 16 fouls (including 3 on the break) in 192 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 12.0 games at the table)​
Gorst -- 32 fouls (including 4 on the break) in 192 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 6.0 games at the table)​
Total -- 48 fouls in 236 games (1 per 4.9 games)​

Missed shots (est.):
Van Boening -- 48 misses in 192 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 4.0 games at the table)​
Gorst -- 47 misses in 192 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 4.1 games at the table)​
Total -- 95 misses in 236 games (1 per 2.5 games)​

Run-outs from first shot after break:
By Van Boening after his own successful break -- 44 of 101 (44%)​
By Van Boening after Gorst's failed break -- 9 of 27 (33%)​
By Van Boening, total -- 53 of 128 (41%)​
By Gorst after his own successful break -- 44 of 89 (49%)​
By Gorst after Van Boening's failed break -- 10 of 19 (53%)​
By Gorst, total -- 54 of 108 (50%)​
Total for Van Boening and Gorst -- 107 of 236 (45%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Van Boening's break:
By Van Boening -- 44 of 101 (44%)​
By Gorst -- 10 of 19 (53%)​
Total -- 54 of 120 (45%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Gorst's break:
By Gorst -- 44 of 89 (49%)​
By Van Boening -- 9 of 27 (33%)​
Total -- 53 of 116 (46%)​

Balls Pocketed:
Van Boening -- 176 on the break, 1,053 not on the break, 1,229 in total​
Gorst -- 161 on the break, 970 not on the break, 1,131 in total​
[Includes balls pocketed on breaking fouls (5 by Van Boening and 6 by Gorst) and on fouls after the break and balls not called after the break (4 by Van Boening and 9 by Gorst).]​

Average number of balls made on the break:
Van Boening -- 1.5 on all breaks, 1.7 on successful breaks​
Gorst -- 1.4 on all breaks, 1.7 on successful breaks​
Total -- 1.4 on all breaks, 1.7 on successful breaks​

Break-and-run packages:
Van Boening's 44 B&R games consisted of one 5-pack (on Day 2), one 4-pack (on Day 3), three 3-packs, six 2-packs, and 14 singles.​
Gorst's 44 B&R games consisted of five 3-packs, five 2-packs, and 19 singles.​

Games with 1 or more safeties (est.):
35% of all games and 56% of games that were not B&Rs​

Number of innings:
59% (140 of 236) of the games ended in one inning -- 88 games on the breaker's first inning (B&R games) and 52 games on the non-breaker's first inning​
21% (50 of 236) of the games ended in the second inning.​
19% (46 of 236) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table, with the two longest games both ending on the non-breaker's 9th visit.​

Distribution of consecutive game wins, i.e. winning streaks. Counts are given for Van Boening first, then Gorst, then the total.
1 game -- 25 times, 26 times, 51 times​
2 games -- 8, 9, 17​
3 games -- 8, 3, 11​
4 games -- 4, 7, 11​
5 games -- 3, 4, 7​
6 games -- 4, 1, 5​
9 games -- 0, 1, 1 (Gorst's wins 2 through 10 on Day 1)​

Biggest leads each day by each player:
Day 1 -- Van Boening led by 4 at 40-36; Gorst led by 11 at 8-19​
Day 2 -- Van Boening led by 9 at 66-57; Gorst led by 2 at 49-47​
Day 3 -- Van Boening led by 8 at 81-73 ; Gorst led by 11 at 89-100​

Lead changes (SVB's score given first) and tied scores:
Day 1 -- 2 lead changes (at 4-5 and at 37-36); score tied 5 times (with the last tie at 36 games each)​
Day 2 -- 4 lead changes (at 47-48, 51-50, 52-53, and 56-55); score tied 7 times (with last tie at 55 games each)​
Day 3 -- 2 lead changes (at 85-86 and 115-114); score tied twice (at 85 and 114).​
[Note: Gorst had a 10-game lead at 98-108. Van Boening then won 16 of the next 22 games to reach the tie at 114, then 6 of the next 8 games to win the match by 4.]​

10-balls on the break -- None.

Match length -- 29 hours and 20 minutes, for an average of 7.5 minutes per game. This includes racking and a dozen timeouts that totaled a few minutes less than one hour. The balls were polished during most of the timeouts.
 
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Wow that’s a great set of data.

Reading the numbers and reading betweeen the lines it appears Shane’s break was just a hair more efficient and he had a better break as it just produced a very very slight edge-4 extra wins.

I didn’t see any of the match, but the numbers (which are amazing) tell the story. Both guys played at a good pace, not very many misses or huge mistakes. The overall time for the entire session being under 30 hours would have been a prop bet I’d have went broke on. Over 30 hours seems like a lock.

I’m sure they will play again, and next time I’ll watch. I’m about 7 timezones ahead of them so I was zzzz. 😕

Great work on the stats!
 
Great stats. Very interesting! I assume it was winner breaks. I wonder what the numbers would look like on an alternate break format. I'm not really a fan of the alternating break but I still wonder how it would have changed the outcome.
 
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Wow that’s a great set of data.

Reading the numbers and reading betweeen the lines it appears Shane’s break was just a hair more efficient and he had a better break as it just produced a very very slight edge-4 extra wins.

I didn’t see any of the match, but the numbers (which are amazing) tell the story. Both guys played at a good pace, not very many misses or huge mistakes. The overall time for the entire session being under 30 hours would have been a prop bet I’d have went broke on. Over 30 hours seems like a lock.

I’m sure they will play again, and next time I’ll watch. I’m about 7 timezones ahead of them so I was zzzz. 😕

Great work on the stats!
Interestingly they both had 44 break and runs. If SVB had a break edge at all it must have been more opportunities to play the first safe in the other racks. But I think if they tied on BNR then the break wasn't that big of a factor.

I think a different way to interpret this is that the breaks were even, what SVB gained in making more balls was neutralized by the control and consistency of Gorst, that it was dead even, and that someone won because someone had to win.
 
Interestingly they both had 44 break and runs. If SVB had a break edge at all it must have been more opportunities to play the first safe in the other racks. But I think if they tied on BNR then the break wasn't that big of a factor.

I think a different way to interpret this is that the breaks were even, what SVB gained in making more balls was neutralized by the control and consistency of Gorst, that it was dead even, and that someone won because someone had to win.
Yes that’s what I meant, is Shane’s balls were dressing up a bit better on the break. That not a number, it’s just my speculation. Which is why I said he had a more “efficient” break.

As you know just seeing the low ball after the break isn’t the full story. Balls on the rail are a death sentence.

Shane just has such a good break. He told me once he made an adjustment on his break to time the cue ball to drop in after the balls had cleared so he didn’t get kicked as much. He played Alex that night and beat him 40-20 for about $75,000 in the middle. I met him at cue club so he wasn’t alone with the $ in the parking lot. Fun memory.

Back on track. Ya SVB probably just had better overall results on the break. That’s a guess tho. I didn’t watch.

Hope you been good

Take care Fatboy <——-can’t break a lick
 
Wow that’s a great set of data.

Reading the numbers and reading betweeen the lines it appears Shane’s break was just a hair more efficient and he had a better break as it just produced a very very slight edge-4 extra wins.

I didn’t see any of the match, but the numbers (which are amazing) tell the story. Both guys played at a good pace, not very many misses or huge mistakes. The overall time for the entire session being under 30 hours would have been a prop bet I’d have went broke on. Over 30 hours seems like a lock.

I’m sure they will play again, and next time I’ll watch. I’m about 7 timezones ahead of them so I was zzzz. 😕

Great work on the stats!

I brought the stream so I could watch on my phone while I pretended to work. You can catch the matches on YouTube, well worht watching!!!
 
How many bathroom breaks did they have on the last day? J/K but they must have been very tired at the end. Shane still has fantastic stamina
Great stats BTW

The breaks weren't to bad at all. Efren said many years ago that the player who can stay there the longest mentally will win. I am still amazed by Shane's ability to lock in better than anybody for lomg periods of time, days!! Amazing!
 
Wow that’s a great set of data.

Reading the numbers and reading betweeen the lines it appears Shane’s break was just a hair more efficient and he had a better break as it just produced a very very slight edge-4 extra wins.

I didn’t see any of the match, but the numbers (which are amazing) tell the story. Both guys played at a good pace, not very many misses or huge mistakes. The overall time for the entire session being under 30 hours would have been a prop bet I’d have went broke on. Over 30 hours seems like a lock.

I’m sure they will play again, and next time I’ll watch. I’m about 7 timezones ahead of them so I was zzzz. 😕

Great work on the stats!

I hope they play 9Ball next time.
 
Shane was making 3 balls on the break a lot when he had break and runs.
Here's the distribution of the number of B&R games by the number of balls made on the break for those games. So just 5 of SVB's B&Rs came after he made 3 or 4 balls on the break, whereas it was 6 for Gorst in that category.

SVB
1 ball -- 22 of 49 (45%)​
2 balls -- 17 of 35 (49%)​
3 or 4 balls -- 5 of 17 (29%)​
Total -- 44 of 101 (44%)​
Gorst
1 ball -- 19 of 40 (48%)​
2 balls -- 19 of 33 (58%)​
3 or 4 balls -- 6 of 16 (38%)​
Total -- 44 of 89 (49%)​
 
Match length -- 29 hours and 20 minutes, for an average of 7.5 minutes per game. This includes racking and a dozen timeouts that totaled a few minutes less than one hour. The balls were polished during most of the timeouts.
My nephew just ran the Leadville 100 and his time was very close to this. <----I would rather be playing pool!
 
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