Feedback on betting odds for US Open

insidesp.in

insidesp.in

Member
I'm not much of a gambler, so I'm just playing around with generating odds on a tournament based on ratings. Playing around with a few algorithms.

So far this is the one I think is the closest:

1787706186151.png


Are these somewhere close to what you would expect?
Thanks!
 
SVB and Filler are close. Filler does have the highest Fargo rating in the world, so I would think him and SVB would be at least the same odds.

Some of the others are quite a bit off. For example, unless Fedor is playing left handed, he should be closer in odds to SVB and Filler.

I am guessing that a lot of those odds could be cut in half, and there are a lot of people who would still take them.

Cool thread though. 👍
 
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the odds are based on their rating and their rating is heavily weighted on recent performance so that’s why you see fedor so low. thanks for the feedback. will put in a few more safe guards
 
does your complete chart add up to 100 percent? and what % does this chart of 50 come out as.

you bunch way too many in the same odds package so longer shot individuals are not weighted properly.

nice trying to put some chances in perspective.
 
here are ladbrokes odds from the other day

Screenshot_20260825_022628_Chrome.jpg


i think yours is quite off aside from filler and svb. maybe too fargorate influenced? form is an important factor. albin, jayson, kaci and to a degree FSR are higher odds considering form, and kazakis and biado are lower
 
The simplest way to do this is run simulations of the tournament using your rating system, or Fargo, or whatever other process you like. Then you can round the outcomes to a set of reasonable values.
 
insidesp.in said:
I'm not much of a gambler, so I'm just playing around with generating odds on a tournament based on ratings. Playing around with a few algorithms.

So far this is the one I think is the closest:

View attachment 926322

Are these somewhere close to what you would expect?
Thanks!
Click to expand...
Don't go into business as a bookie. You'd be skint within days.
At those odds I could probably back every player in the tournament and make a profit whoever won it.
 
OverTheNut said:
Don't go into business as a bookie. You'd be skint within days.
At those odds I could probably back every player in the tournament and make a profit whoever won it.
Click to expand...
with the 256 entries it means the average odds for a player drawn at say at random would be 255 to one.

good reason probability should be taught more in lower grades.
 
you have to really add subjective to your objective as they are people and their chances are greatly related to personal issues and immediate past performance.
your starting to understand, and get it, so dont give up as understanding more than simple probability opens a vast array of things you can use for your advantage. in all works of life.

from just crossing the street to making millions in the stock market or land sales. its just how good you get and apply it.
 
skip100 said:
The simplest way to do this is run simulations of the tournament using your rating system, or Fargo, or whatever other process you like. Then you can round the outcomes to a set of reasonable values.
Click to expand...
I watch players for the first time, and when I see em play the second time, I'm usually right in my prediction of the winner of the set I'm watchin'.
 
You will notice as the field gets stronger and players align, you are going to see different players holding up the 1st place trophy at different tournaments. SVB, Filler, and Gorst have seen their dominance. Those two are still great, it's just that the competition is getting insane.

Many of the pros are catching up. Names are going to start popping up and you will see winners come from seemingly nowhere.
In another year or so, there will be 20 guys who could win it all on any particular day (it will be like golf in that respect).
Better than the days of having the Americans winning it more often than not--as in the 80s and 90s.
And that's a great thing, folks. I think pool is FINALLY going to see it's rightful place in the world of competition!
 
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