Feedback on betting odds for US Open

insidesp.in

insidesp.in

Member
I'm not much of a gambler, so I'm just playing around with generating odds on a tournament based on ratings. Playing around with a few algorithms.

So far this is the one I think is the closest:

1787706186151.png


Are these somewhere close to what you would expect?
Thanks!
 
SVB and Filler are close. Filler does have the highest Fargo rating in the world, so I would think him and SVB would be at least the same odds.

Some of the others are quite a bit off. For example, unless Fedor is playing left handed, he should be closer in odds to SVB and Filler.

I am guessing that a lot of those odds could be cut in half, and there are a lot of people who would still take them.

Cool thread though. 👍
 
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the odds are based on their rating and their rating is heavily weighted on recent performance so that’s why you see fedor so low. thanks for the feedback. will put in a few more safe guards
 
does your complete chart add up to 100 percent? and what % does this chart of 50 come out as.

you bunch way too many in the same odds package so longer shot individuals are not weighted properly.

nice trying to put some chances in perspective.
 
when bookies put up betting charts they adjust odds quickly based on the betting ,not what they believe are true chances of winning.
 
here are ladbrokes odds from the other day

Screenshot_20260825_022628_Chrome.jpg


i think yours is quite off aside from filler and svb. maybe too fargorate influenced? form is an important factor. albin, jayson, kaci and to a degree FSR are higher odds considering form, and kazakis and biado are lower
 
the betting odds are not the real odds. but as the odds change with the bets it naturally creeps towards the real odds as the smart gamblers attack any mistakes with huge bets.
 
The simplest way to do this is run simulations of the tournament using your rating system, or Fargo, or whatever other process you like. Then you can round the outcomes to a set of reasonable values.
 
insidesp.in said:
I'm not much of a gambler, so I'm just playing around with generating odds on a tournament based on ratings. Playing around with a few algorithms.

So far this is the one I think is the closest:

View attachment 926322

Are these somewhere close to what you would expect?
Thanks!
Click to expand...
Don't go into business as a bookie. You'd be skint within days.
At those odds I could probably back every player in the tournament and make a profit whoever won it.
 
book makers make the lines so they have the best of it supposing no matter who you bet on.
 
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OverTheNut said:
Don't go into business as a bookie. You'd be skint within days.
At those odds I could probably back every player in the tournament and make a profit whoever won it.
Click to expand...
with the 256 entries it means the average odds for a player drawn at say at random would be 255 to one.

good reason probability should be taught more in lower grades.
 
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