Stats -- Siming Chen vs. Donny Mills Battle of the Sexes 9-Ball, February 2019

AtLarge

AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
Edit 3/14/19 -- This Post #1 is for SET #2 of the match only.
See Post #20 for similar results for SET #1.
See Post #21 for results for both sets combined.
____________________________________________________________________

Here are some results from the Siming Chen vs. Donny Mills challenge 9-Ball match played at First Break Sports Bar in Sterling, Virginia on Feb. 23 and 24, 2019. Pay-per-view streaming was provided by RoysBasement and High Rock Productions.

This match was best 2 out of 3 races to 21, with the first set on Saturday, Feb. 23 and the second set (and 3rd, if necessary) on Sunday, Feb. 24. Chen won the first set 21-19 and the second set 21-20, so a 3rd set was not played.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with standard pro-cut pockets and Simonis 860 Tournament Blue cloth;​
- Aramith Tournament balls with a measles cue ball;​
- breaker racks using an Accu-Rack racking template, with the 9-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball in back;​
- winner breaks from a 2-diamonds-wide central box behind the head string;​
- the break is illegal (and non-breaker has an option to shoot) unless at least 3 balls cross the head string or are pocketed;​
- jumping allowed only with the playing cue;​
- cue-ball fouls only; and​
- all slop counts except spot any 9-ball made on the break;​

The following results are for SET #2 of the match, played Feb. 24. I have not yet been able to watch the last 13 games of Set #1, and have not included any results from Set #1 in this post.

■ Chen broke 21 times -- successful 12 times (resulting in 9 game wins and 3 losses), no fouls, 1 wet but illegal (a loss), and 8 dry (4 wins and 4 losses).

■ Mills broke 20 times -- successful 14 times (resulting in 11 game wins and 3 losses), 2 fouls (1 win, 1 loss), 1 wet but illegal (a loss), and 3 dry (all losses).

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
Chen -- 12 of 21 (57%)​
Mills -- 14 of 20 (70%)​
Total -- 26 of 41 (63%)​

Unsuccessful breaks (fouled, dry, or illegal):
Chen -- 9 of 21 (43%)​
Mills -- 6 of 20 (30%)​
Total -- 15 of 41 (37%)​

Breaker won game:
Chen -- 13 of 21 (62%)​
Mills -- 12 of 20 (60%)​
Total -- 25 of 41 (61%)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
Chen -- 5 of 21 (24%)​
Mills -- 8 of 20 (40%)​
Total -- 13 of 41 (32%)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (legal, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
Chen -- 5 of 12 (42%)​
Mills -- 8 of 14 (57%)​
Total -- 13 of 26 (50%)​

Fouls:
Chen -- 4​
Mills -- 5 (including 2 on the break)​
Total -- 9​

Missed shots (est.):
Chen -- 14​
Mills -- 14​
Total -- 28​

Games with 1 or more safeties (est):
by Chen only -- 5​
by Mills only -- 6​
by both -- 5​
Total games with 1 or more safeties -- 39% (16 of 41)​

Average number of balls made on the break:
Chen -- 0.9 on all breaks, 1.4 on successful breaks​
Mills -- 1.4 on all breaks, 1.6 on successful breaks​
Total -- 1.1 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks​

Run-outs from first shot after break:
By Chen after her own successful break -- 5 of 12 (42%)​
By Chen after Mills' failed break -- 2 of 6 (33%)​
By Chen, total -- 7 of 18 (39%)​
By Mills after his own successful break -- 8 of 14 (57%)​
By Mills after Chen's failed break -- 3 of 9 (33%)​
By Mills, total -- 11 of 23 (48%)​
Total for Chen and Mills -- 18 of 41 (44%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Chen's break:
By Chen -- 5 of 12 (42%)​
By Mills -- 3 of 9 (33%)​
Total -- 8 of 21 (38%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Mills' break:
By Mills -- 8 of 14 (57%)​
By Chen -- 2 of 6 (33%)​
Total -- 10 of 20 (50%)​

Number of innings -- 49% (20 of 41) of the games ended in one inning. 13 games ended on the breaker's first inning (B&R games), 7 games ended on the non-breaker's first inning, 6 games ended on the breaker's second inning, and 4 games ended on the non-breaker's second inning. 11 games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table, with the longest 3 games ending on one of the player's 6th visit.

Break-and-run packages -- The 13 B&R games consisted of one 3-pack by Mills, one 2-pack by each player, and 3 singles by each player.

9-balls on the break -- None (they would have been spotted).

Set length -- 5 hours and 12 minutes, for an average of 7.6 minutes per game, including racking and timeouts.
 
Last edited:
Those stats show that Mills should have won both those sets by a thin margin, instead of the other way around. Donny made more unforced errors, to use a tennis term.
 
Hmmmm....Mills broke better....and had more BNRs...
....it must be the fighting games that Chen is better at.
 
Hmmmm....Mills broke better....and had more BNRs...
....it must be the fighting games that Chen is better at.

Which Street Fighter? Or is she more of a tekken or king of fighters player?

On a side note, I completely forgot about this. I was way more wrapped up in the empire State championship.
 
If I didn't know already, just going by stats alone.... it looks as if Mills, like someone said, "should have won by a small margin" instead of what actually happened.

It looks as if Mills would beat her for sure if he was better at "in game" battles when the heat is up. On the other hand, if Chen improves on the B-n-R's and offensive play after opponent dry breaks or misses..... well, at that point Mills and everyone close or even a tad higher in ratings would be TOAST when matching up against her.

She has a crazy high gear which is why she is where she's at.

Props to her!
 
was soft break allowed? and if so, was it practised?

They were using the 3-point rule -- the break is illegal (and non-breaker has an option to shoot) unless at least 3 balls cross the head string or are pocketed. So there were no really soft breaks.
 
Does anyone else agree that racking the 1ball on the spot m, rack your own and using a triangle gives Donny the big edge?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
was soft break allowed? and if so, was it practised?

No, they played with the 3-point rule. It pretty effectively kills any type of soft break. In fact sometimes you can break hard and still get an illegal break, just through bad luck.

I'd say no break was softer than, say, 18 mph. And they seemed to try for harder ones.
 
Does anyone else agree that racking the 1ball on the spot,
rack your own and using a triangle gives Donny the big edge?

He almost beat SVB that way, so it's possible.

On the other hand, these break stats say that Donny outbroke her, and had more break and runs,
but still lost.

If it comes down to pure 9-ball and we're trying to see who gets out better, with fewer unforced errors,
and who wins the safety battles... I still might like her. She makes long pressure shots all day.
She kicks great. I believe she missed fewer banks.

Towards the end, she made a sick 8-ball jacked up on the rail (shown below).
She also faded donny winning 5 or 6 in a row to get on the hill,
and came with a break and run that included this tough 3 ball.

l5sPX6N.jpg
 
... Towards the end, she made a sick 8-ball jacked up on the rail (shown below).
She also faded donny winning 5 or 6 in a row to get on the hill,
and came with a break and run that included this tough 3 ball. ...

The whole last game, a break-and-run as you mentioned, was something. She made the 2-ball and 5-ball on the break but had no good shot. Debating between a cross-corner bank and a safe on the 1-ball, she chose the former and made it (though it nearly bobbled out). But the CB traveled down table, leaving the tough CB-on-the-rail long cut on the 3-ball you showed. Next was a gentle tap on a nearly hanging 4-ball in the side, but the CB rolled a bit farther than desirable, leaving a real thin cut to the corner on the 6-ball. That led to a thin cut to the side on the 7-ball. The 8-ball was easy to pocket, but position was long to the 9-ball. Quite an out.

That great jacked-up 8-ball you mentioned was in Game 31, taking the score to 18-13. She then broke and ran to get to 19-13. But then Donny won 7 games in a row (20-19 his favor) and Chen's chances didn't look good.

She squeaked out a win in Game 40 despite missing two long shots. Donny had gone 11 successful breaks in a row, but was dry in Game 40. Chen promptly missed a long, pretty straight shot on the 1-ball. Donny looked to be out. He ran the first 5 but then played poor position going from the 6-ball to the 7-ball and had to play safe. It was a lousy safe and Chen had a long cut shot on the 7-ball. She opted to jack up a bit and try to draw the CB back around 3 rails for the 8-ball instead of what looked like the higher probability approach -- level out, roll in the 7-ball and come back down the other side for the 8. She was fortunate that her miss left tough position for Donny. He opted to try a cross-corner bank and missed. Chen got the 7 but left herself a thin cut on the 8-ball using the bridge. But she made it and tied the match at 20.

Quite a fun match to watch (despite the 5+ hrs. per set).
 
Thanks to Roy's Basement and High Rock Productions for showing this match at quite a reasonable price.

But, I have one request -- show all the break shots.

In some games, an overhead closeup of the rack was on screen when the break occurred.

In some games, a commercial was running when the break occurred (e,g., Games 31, 32, and 34).
 
Cheers... yes, it was a GREAT set to watch. I was able to be there live and the atmosphere
was sort of tense, but in a good-natured way. The crowd maybe leaned a bit towards Siming
but all good shots brought applause.

For anyone who missed it, Roy has put up a day 1 replay on his facebook page.
Good quality, since it's pulled from the highrock camera and not the usual cell-phone coverage.

https://www.facebook.com/RoysBasement/videos/254272508860791/

(btw if anyone is having trouble... Facebook is apparently down right now,
it's not just you)
 
Here are some results for SET #1 of the Siming Chen vs. Donny Mills 9-Ball challenge match. This set was played on Saturday, February 23, 2019 at First Break Sports Bar in Sterling, Virginia. Chen won Set #1 21-19.

See POST #1 for SET #2 results and for general information about the match and the conditions.
See POST #21 for results for both sets combined.


■ Chen broke 20 times -- successful 12 times (resulting in 9 game wins and 3 losses), 2 fouls (1 win, 1 loss), and 6 dry including 2 illegal (1 win and 5 losses).

■ Mills broke 20 times -- successful 14 times (resulting in 8 game wins and 6 losses), 2 fouls (both losses), and 4 dry including 1 illegal (2 wins, 2 losses).

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
Chen -- 12 of 20 (60%)​
Mills -- 14 of 20 (70%)​
Total -- 26 of 40 (65%)​

Unsuccessful breaks (fouled, dry, or illegal):
Chen -- 8 of 20 (40%)​
Mills -- 6 of 20 (30%)​
Total -- 14 of 40 (35%)​

Breaker won game:
Chen -- 11 of 20 (55%)​
Mills -- 10 of 20 (50%)​
Total -- 21 of 40 (53%)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
Chen -- 5 of 20 (25%)​
Mills -- 3 of 20 (15%)​
Total -- 8 of 40 (20%)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (legal, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
Chen -- 5 of 12 (42%)​
Mills -- 3 of 14 (21%)​
Total -- 8 of 26 (31%)​

Fouls:
Chen -- 8 (including 2 on the break)​
Mills -- 5 (including 2 on the break)​
Total -- 13​

Missed shots (est.):
Chen -- 7​
Mills -- 11​
Total -- 18​

Games with 1 or more safeties (est):
by Chen only -- 4​
by Mills only -- 8​
by both -- 5​
Total games with 1 or more safeties -- 43% (17 of 40)​

Average number of balls made on the break:
Chen -- 0.9 on all breaks, 1.4 on successful breaks​
Mills -- 1.1 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks​
Total -- 1.0 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks​

Run-outs from first shot after break:
By Chen after her own successful break -- 5 of 12 (42%)​
By Chen after Mills' failed break -- 4 of 6 (67%)​
By Chen, total -- 9 of 18 (50%)​
By Mills after his own successful break -- 3 of 14 (21%)​
By Mills after Chen's failed break -- 2 of 8 (25%)​
By Mills, total -- 5 of 22 (23%)​
Total for Chen and Mills -- 14 of 40 (35%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Chen's break:
By Chen -- 5 of 12 (42%)​
By Mills -- 2 of 8 (25%)​
Total -- 7 of 20 (35%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Mills' break:
By Mills -- 3 of 14 (21%)​
By Chen -- 4 of 6 (67%)​
Total -- 7 of 20 (35%)​

Number of innings -- 50% (20 of 40) of the games ended in one inning. 8 games ended on the breaker's first inning (B&R games), 12 games ended on the non-breaker's first inning, 3 games ended on the breaker's second inning, and 4 games ended on the non-breaker's second inning. 13 games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table, with the longest 3 games ending on one of the player's 5th visit.

Break-and-run packages -- The 8 B&R games consisted of one 2-pack by each player, 3 singles by Chen, and 1 single by Mills.

9-balls on the break -- One, by Chen (2.5% of the 40 breaks); it was spotted.

Set length -- 5 hours and 13 minutes, for an average of 7.8 minutes per game, including racking and timeouts.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top