I remember when people used to equate the games on the wire to ball spots and it always made me question it. Like last 2 equals a game on the wire to 11 or the 8 ball is like a game on the wire to 9 etc.
I think the sets play totally different.
Ball Spot/Games on the Wire/Odds on the Money
- Thread starter mikeyfrost
- Start date
I remember when people used to equate the games on the wire to ball spots and it always made me question it. Like last 2 equals a game on the wire to 11 or the 8 ball is like a game on the wire to 9 etc.
I think the sets play totally different.
I think this list makes it abundantly clear that there are way too many factors to be considered, including ones that we just aren't aware of.
This is the main reason you can't accurately make games based on some kind of calculation that attempts to account for all possible factors.
Instead, I believe what gives certain players the ability to accurately determine fair spots is intuition and past experiences.
Over time, players develop intuition that helps them deal with the complexities involved, and they also can draw from countless past matches and how the spots in those matches affected the result.
ill take games on the wire. if i start off slow (like i often do) trying to get into stroke, I can dog it a couple times and still be in the mix. dog it with the ball spot and you're playing from behind with the heat on you. playing on 4 1/4 pockets or bigger im probably even money to get out whenever the balls are open so a lot of the time a few games gets me there against a better
It isn't too many factors to considered. There are just a number of variables that must be considered to consistently book winners. Lots of people handicap football, friendly bettors consider a few factors & look at the line, Vegas pros consider many more factors to come up with the line.
Pool is no different, like pro sports handicappers, knowing all of the important variables that deserve consideration & observing them objectively without ego or emotion involved will lead you to a sound conclusion. It's all about knowing all the variables & how to judge them.
You allude to previous experience in bygone matches leading to an "intuition". It's really more leading to compute the odds faster from previous input, it's still the same cold hard facts, intuition has nothing to do with it, in fact intuition will get you busted.
Really, so you have the magic mathematical formula that considers all factors and computes a winner? Please do post it.
Professional sports handicappers have access to years of statistical data that is recorded, and they follow players and teams in the news, and may also have insider information directly from teams and coaches. They also do it for a living because it is that complicated. Even then, they are just estimating.
Pool is completely different. All you can do is watch people play and rely on past experiences. There's no statistical data you can look up online when matching up to players in a pool hall, and people don't devote their careers to figuring out the best way to handicap pool matches.
People who are good at handicapping pool matches rely heavily on instinct and intuition. They aren't sitting in a pool hall writing down calculations on a napkin. They also don't have some magical ability to consciously keep track of all possible factors in their head.
There are countless situations that people are able to evaluate and understand immediately without consciously calculating or thinking about it. This is where intuition comes in to play. It's something everyone relies on, whether they know it or not.
Hmmmm, I don't believe anyone said anything about magical formulas, there's nothing magical about it. In my first post that you quoted in this thread I listed a good number of the factors to be considered but not all of them, nor will I, some things you have to learn on your own.
In your original post I quoted you mention intuition which infers to a feeling about something, handicapping is not about a feeling. In your last post you mention instinct, which is closer to the mark. As I stated before what you're weighing is factual information, those factors remain the same always. With time & experience you do develop "instinct" to calculate these quickly, no napkin & pen required.
You also mention handicappers in other arenas having years of statistical analysis to review & pool is no different. Your experiences form much of this & your knowledge of other players form the remainder. Back when there was a road to go on this was a more difficult factor when trying to determine a match up with someone who's game you're unfamiliar with but there was a group of individuals that kept a book of information like this on different places and players that was invaluable if you had access to it. In the 90's there was a guy in the Midwest named Greg Smith that offered info like this to road players for a fee, he had everyone in the country clocked & feelers everywhere providing updated info on regular basis, it was quite lucrative for him. The reality is its like everything else, the more info you have the better off you'll be but as I stated in a previous post what's more important than the factors that you must weigh is the demeanor to observe these facts objectively without your ego or emotions being a part of evaluating the equation, to just weigh where your game is as well as your opponents without any projection of your ego upon it. Lastly the ability to be able to manipulate your opponents ego if possible while negotiating a game with him can be the most invaluable asset of all, this is an art.
I'm not sure you understand what intuition is. I suggest you figure that out before trying to argue against it.
Yes, pool is different, there are no concrete statistics on every pool player. Yet some people are able to handicap matches between players they have only seen play for a short amount of time, and this is not a concrete calculation, and they are not consciously considering every single factor.
If you think you can point out and account for every single factor that determines a fair spot, or determines the winner of a match, you are being rather ignorant and arrogant.