Odds on Shane Winning BCAPL Men's Open

Steve Lipsky said:

A serious hypothetical question, that I'll ask in two parts:

1. If SVB were allowed in the men's open in Vegas, what would be his odds of winning the approximately 1,300 player event?

2. If he were allowed to play, but nobody knew who he was, what would the odds be?

I came up with about 3:1 and 8:1 respectively, based of course on absolutely nothing lol.

Thoughts?

Thanks,
Steve

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Not if he runs up against some unknown Filipino players..

Bayawak said:

Not if he runs up against some unknown Filipino players..

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No kidding! He could never win a race to 5 playing 8-ball on a 7' table against an unknown Filipino player!

if you are asking how the bookies would do it i calculated roughly 1.90/1 and 80/1.

I would make the line 50-1. But it's a totally hypothetical situation. Too many guys who can win a very short Race To Five against anyone. My line is actually pretty high. No question in my mind that if he played the Open division fifty times, he would win more than once. Real odds may be closer to 25/30-1.

Steve Lipsky said:

A serious hypothetical question, that I'll ask in two parts:

1. If SVB were allowed in the men's open in Vegas, what would be his odds of winning the approximately 1,300 player event?

2. If he were allowed to play, but nobody knew who he was, what would the odds be?

I came up with about 3:1 and 8:1 respectively, based of course on absolutely nothing lol.

Thoughts?

Thanks,
Steve

Click to expand...

His odds would be a lot less if no one knew who he was. Just knowing who he is will win him some games that otherwise he would have lost. Of course he doesn't play 1300 players but maybe just 10 to 13 matches to win it all.

There are many players in the open that can win any match against anyone including matches against many pros.

I would put the odds at about 15 to 1. I say that in those 15 times he will win the 10 to 13 matches at least once.

how the books calculate odds

The lines-makers don't actually make a line or odds based on who they think will win. The line is created so a lot of action will be generated with equal amounts wagered on both sides. You normally have to wager $ 110 to win a $ 100 with the $ 10 being the vig. The vig is the margin bookies live on. If a lot more $ is wagered on one side or the other the books will lay off part of the action to another book. Books don't want a large exposure if a lop sided amount is wagered on one side. If the wrong side wins you can go bust. Thats why the line for say the Dallas Cowboys or NE Pats will be different in their respective home markets than say it would be in Vegas. Make the Cowboys line higher and enough $ will hopefully be wagered on their opponent. Sometimes in boxing you can only wager on the underdawg if it is a match with a big fav. This post is somewhat a simplification of how it is actually done but hopefully it will serve to answer your question.

Steve Lipsky said:

A serious hypothetical question, that I'll ask in two parts:

1. If SVB were allowed in the men's open in Vegas, what would be his odds of winning the approximately 1,300 player event?

2. If he were allowed to play, but nobody knew who he was, what would the odds be?

I came up with about 3:1 and 8:1 respectively, based of course on absolutely nothing lol.

Thoughts?

Thanks,
Steve

Click to expand...

Steve,

I'm curious to know why you think there would be such a big difference between 1 and 2? The intimidation factor alone would cause him to go from 3:1 to 8:1?