IMO...
When a top pro is playing a top pro, they will be aggressive. If faced with a 90% safe or a 60% make shot, they will almost always choose the shot. The reason is if they lose control of the table, the other top pro might win 5 games in a row from that position.
But a top pro playing an amateur (in the scenario I described), doesn't have to worry about the amateur winning more than one game from that position. And if we are talking a C level player (Fargo 500), the player won't even run out the remainder of the rack. So in this case, I think the top pro, when faced with a 60% make/90% safe, should elect to play a tight safe, get BIH, and then run out.
I think the Fargo ratings don't apply (in this scenario), because if a top pro is playing a C or B in a tournament (where the ratings come from), they will play just like they were playing another top pro, aggressive. The reason is two fold: 1) they know they will win, so there is no pressure. 2) They want to play their normal game, because the amateur opponent doesn't want to be made the fool, and the pro knows that.
I think the top pro can manage the game completely when playing a C or B, and hold the opponent to almost no games.
How about this one: Alex vs a C or a B in one hole. Same format, race to 100, Alex has to hold the C or B below a few games to get his million. I don't think the amateur would win 2 games in this scenerio, maybe even be blanked. Alex could just get behind the balls, knock them ALL up table, and bank them in one at a time.
I've witnessed DO lose giving 16 games on wire, going to 20 when playing 9 ball, wooden rack, winner break on a bar box.
I have no idea what the amateurs rating was/is or if he even had one. Had no idea who he was. The amateur couldn't run more than two or three balls at a time with BIH.
I do know these things for sure:
Every game the amateur won was a swing at the cheese.
DO didn't get past 13 games
DO declined playing a second set without adjusting so, the amateur quit ahead
The amateur played with a house cue
The amateur was half in the bag.....no doubt. He was throwing shots back left and right
Amateur bought the entire bar a round....its was A LOT of people their
I'm not so sure that a solid B+ player could do as well simply because players at B+ level and higher get caught up in the "game" and how "well their playing" instead of doing what the drunk guy did (swing for the fence).
I would've HATE to have been Dennis's backer for a million going to 100 while giving 90 games to even a D player.
No matter hiw good you play, you can't out run the odds. Thats why the house always wins.
Jeff
EDIT:
Forgot to say the $$$
Their set was for 10k
I lost $200 betting on Dennis.
If I had it to do over today, I would go all in on that race betting the other way.
Today, I would in no way bet on ANY pro giving 90+ games on wire to 100 in ANY rotation game other than American Rotation.
Also, as for 1hole.....lol....the amateur wouldn't stand a chance getting to 5 going to 100. No way. Then again, 1hole ain't 9 ball where you can chase the cheese.
IMO, the answers to the OP's questions are no brainers.
I played a guy. All I had to do was make a good hit. He got the breaks. I lost 1500 before I quit.
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That's strong as hell what was the race?I’ve saw that one before. Lol.
Who's idea was it to play this set? The drunk guy? DO? The reason I ask, is I'm wondering if that's a spot DO regularly gives out. And either the guy had to have been better than banger speed to be playing for 10k, or have really deep pockets.
IMO...
When a top pro is playing a top pro, they will be aggressive. If faced with a 90% safe or a 60% make shot, they will almost always choose the shot. The reason is if they lose control of the table, the other top pro might win 5 games in a row from that position.
But a top pro playing an amateur (in the scenario I described), doesn't have to worry about the amateur winning more than one game from that position. And if we are talking a C level player (Fargo 500), the player won't even run out the remainder of the rack. So in this case, I think the top pro, when faced with a 60% make/90% safe, should elect to play a tight safe, get BIH, and then run out.
I think the Fargo ratings don't apply (in this scenario), because if a top pro is playing a C or B in a tournament (where the ratings come from), they will play just like they were playing another top pro, aggressive. The reason is two fold: 1) they know they will win, so there is no pressure. 2) They want to play their normal game, because the amateur opponent doesn't want to be made the fool, and the pro knows that.
I think the top pro can manage the game completely when playing a C or B, and hold the opponent to almost no games.
How about this one: Alex vs a C or a B in one hole. Same format, race to 100, Alex has to hold the C or B below a few games to get his million. I don't think the amateur would win 2 games in this scenerio, maybe even be blanked. Alex could just get behind the balls, knock them ALL up table, and bank them in one at a time.