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Break Stats -- Derby City 9-Foot 9-Ball, Jan. 2018
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Break Stats -- Derby City 9-Foot 9-Ball, Jan. 2018 - 01-28-2018, 01:41 PM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2018 Derby City Classic 9-Ball event played January 24-27, 2018 at the Horseshoe Southern Indiana in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with blue Simonis 860 cloth;
- Cyclop TV balls with a measles cue ball;
- Diamond CR1 triangle rack;
- rack your own and winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
- jump cues not allowed;
- cue-ball fouls only;
- all slop counts;
- 40-second shot clock (one automatic extension per player per rack

The 11 streamed matches (163 games) were as follows. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream. No TPA was given for one of the matches. [Note: These stats exclude 6 games in the Shaw/Pagulayan match, as my internet service was down during those games.]

Wed. Jan 24
  • Mika Immonen (.922) defeated Scott Frost (.865) 9-7

Thurs. Jan 25
  • Chris Melling (.869) d. Chip Compton (.536) 9-2

Fri., Jan. 26
  • Jeffrey De Luna (.986 - best of the event) d. Shannon Murphy (.833) 9-2
    Justin Bergman (.899) d. Tony Chohan (.846) 9-6

Sat., Jan. 27
  • Dennis Orcollo (.913) d. Shane Van Boening (.864) 9-8
    Jayson Shaw (.825) d. Alex Pagulayan (.868) 9-8
    Chris Melling d. John Morra 9-7
    Joshua Filler (.889) d. Josh Roberts (.829) 9-4
    Orcollo (.922) d. Ruslan Chinakhov (.871) 9-7
    Morra (.880) d. Van Boening (.871) 9-5 (Semifinal)
    Melling (.864) d. Morra (.848) 9-8 (Finals)

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 73% of the time (115 of 157), won 62% of the games (98 of 157), and broke and ran 37% of the games (58 of 157).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 157 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 80 (51% of the 157 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 35 (22%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 1 (1%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 6 (4%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 17 (11%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 18 (11%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 62% (98 of 157) of all games,
  • He won 70% (80 of 115) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • He won 14% (1 of 7) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • He won 49% (17 of 35) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • He won 43% (18 of 42) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games -- The 58 break-and-run games represented 37% of all 157 games, 59% of the 98 games won by the breaker, and 50% of the 115 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 58 break-and-run games consisted of 2 five-packs (by De Luna and Morra), 1 four-pack (Filler), 4 three-packs, 6 two-packs and 20 singles.

9-Balls on the break -- The 58 break-and-run games included 3 9-balls on the break (1.9% of all breaks).
  
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01-28-2018, 01:41 PM

Miscellany from the data for the 2018 DCC 9-Ball event:
[This relates only to the 11 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

The most balls made on a single break was 4, done 5 times. The breaker ran out from the break in all 5 of those games.

The average number of balls made on the break was 1.2 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.6.

56% (88 of 157) of the games ended in one inning 37% (58) won by the breaker (B&R) and 19% (30) won by the non-breaker. Nine percent (14 of 157) of the games lasted 4 or more innings.

44% (69 of 157) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) 50% (58 of 115)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break 71% (5 of 7)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks 17% (6 of 35)

The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 68% of the time (104 of 154)
- Won the game in a later inning 8% of the time (13 of 154)
- Lost the game 24% of the time (37 of 154)
[Note -- total games used here are 154 rather than 157 to eliminate the 3 games in which no ball was made after the break.]

The loser won an average of 5.8 games in these races to 9. Three streamed matches went to hill/hill; two finished at 9-2.

The average elapsed time for these 11 races to 9 was 77 minutes, averaging 5.2 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

The match that was longest in elapsed time, at 124 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 7.3, was the Finals -- Melling d. Morra 9-8.

The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at 40 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 3.1, was Filler d. Roberts 9-4.

Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 22.4 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.6 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.9 games.

About 27% of the games involved one or more safeties.
  
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01-28-2018, 05:38 PM

Mean of Accu-Stats match TPA's for the 10 streamed matches for which TPA's were given:

for the 10 match winners -- .897 (2017 = .897 for 7, 2016 = .921 for 9)

for the 10 match losers -- .823 (2017 = .805 for 7, 2016 = .831 for 9)

Total (all 20 TPA's) -- .860 (2017 = .851 for 14, 2016 = .876 for 18)

[Note: These mean values are likely to be a little different from aggregate TPA's calculated for each of these 3 groups.]
  
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01-28-2018, 07:00 PM

The picture purported to be of svb's offending rack against Shaw does not have cyclop tv balls. Do you have comment on that? Can we be reasonably sure that is a pic of the balls in their match?

Thanks, looking forward to reading the rest of your stats.
  
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01-28-2018, 07:03 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Black-Balled View Post
The picture purported to be of svb's offending rack against Shaw does not have cyclop tv balls. Do you have comment on that? Can we be reasonably sure that is a pic of the balls in their match?

Thanks, looking forward to reading the rest of your stats.
The YouTube video shows they are not using the Cyclops set used on the TV table. Anything could happen, but I believe the pic to be accurate as some stated in the other thread.


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[About Christopher Thomas] I'd be very surprised if his phone even has service. He's as close to homeless as you can be without actually being totally homeless. The fact that he even has a paypal account is mind blowing.
  
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01-28-2018, 07:11 PM

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Originally Posted by iba7467 View Post
The YouTube video shows they are not using the Cyclops set used on the TV table. Anything could happen, but I believe the pic to be accurate as some stated in the other thread.
Cool. I was expecting different balls for tv table would be the answer.
  
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01-28-2018, 07:12 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Black-Balled View Post
The picture purported to be of svb's offending rack against Shaw does not have cyclop tv balls. Do you have comment on that? Can we be reasonably sure that is a pic of the balls in their match?

Thanks, looking forward to reading the rest of your stats.
Sorry, the only table I saw was the streaming table, and I heard nothing about the balls on the other tables.
  
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01-28-2018, 07:15 PM

[QUOTE=Black-Balled;6075627]The picture purported to be of svb's offending rack against Shaw does not have cyclop tv balls. Do you have comment on that? Can we be reasonably sure that is a pic of the balls in their match?

Cyclop TV-color balls were used only on the TV table. All the other tables had balls of the traditional colors, and the match in question wasn't on the TV table (surprising, yes). So the pic has the correct colors.
  
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01-28-2018, 07:15 PM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Sorry, the only table I saw was the streaming table, and I heard nothing about the balls on the other tables.
Well hurry up and figure out how you can collect all the data from all the matches on all the tables for all the events, so we can justify comping your trip out there.

Sheesh, man. This forum stuff ain't no bowl of jellies.
  
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01-28-2018, 07:19 PM

I am good on the legitimacy of the pic. I actually wanted to dispel any posssible doubt, more than had any doubt.

I trust azb.
  
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01-28-2018, 07:19 PM

Mean of Accu-Stats Match TPA's for DCC 9-Ball

These averages are for the streamed matches for which TPA's were given by Accu-Stats -- 10 matches in 2018, 7 in 2017, 9 in 2016, 9 in 2015, and 6 in 2014

• For match winners
  • 2018 -- .897
    2017 -- .897
    2016 -- .921
    2015 -- .902
    2014 -- .898
    5-year total -- .904

• For match losers
  • 2018 -- .823
    2017 -- .805
    2016 -- .831
    2015 -- .697 (.784 excluding one zero TPA)
    2014 -- .806
    5-year total -- .792 (.811)

• For both winners and losers
  • 2018 -- .860
    2017 -- .851
    2016 -- .876
    2015 -- .800 (.847)
    2014 -- .852
    5-year total -- .848 (.859)

[Note: These mean values are likely to be a little different from aggregate TPA's calculated for each of the 3 groups.]

Edit -- this is an expansion and reformatting of post #3.

Last edited by AtLarge; 01-28-2018 at 07:21 PM.
  
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01-28-2018, 07:28 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Black-Balled View Post
Well hurry up and figure out how you can collect all the data from all the matches on all the tables for all the events, so we can justify comping your trip out there.

Sheesh, man. This forum stuff ain't no bowl of jellies.
Back in the mid-80's, I think Pat Fleming collected info to do his TPA's for all of an event's matches. But he had helpers, and the fields were a bit smaller than DCC gets.
  
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