100-200-300-400-500?
- Thread starter Ken_4fun
- Start date
Bob Jewett has provided interesting info on this in the past, if you can search for it. The jist of it if I recall has to do with making use of the probabilities. Let's say you set up a break ball and try to run 100. It takes you 100 tries, but you finally do it. Now let's say you do this every day over time and you keep notes on how often you ran 100. You would come up with your personal probability for running 100. Maybe it turns out to be 1 in 100, or a 1% probability (0.01). The probability of running 100 twice in a row would be .01 x .01, or .0001. So if you have a 1% probability of running 100 balls, you have only a 1/100th of 1% chance of running 200. In this case it is 100 times harder to run 200.
I can think of some limitations to this method, but overall I think if you kept good stats on your runs, they wouldn't be too far off. I mean, if you have a 50% chance of running 14 balls, it's hard to say you have a 25% chance (.5 x .5) of running 28 because there is more involved in getting to 28 than there is for 14 (getting on a break ball being the main difference).