14.1 High Runs - statistics for Day 1's

[gerryf]

With the widely different number of innings run by Shane, Ruslan, Earl, and now Jayson, I thought it would be interesting to see how their Day 1's compared. Each of them would be rested and motivated.

Shane, Ruslan, and Earl all played about the same number of racks on Day 1, (100-122), but Jayson ran almost twice as many (206), so that makes it less comparable.

Shane, Ruslan, and Earl all potted around 1300 balls, but Jayson potted around 2500 in his 28 innings on Day 1

Ruslan performed the highest in terms of BPI, Potting Success, and Rack success.

Shane​	Ruslan​	Earl​	Jayson​
Balls per inning ......... 62	127​	35​	92​
Potting Success ........ 98.4%	99.2%​	97.2%​	98.9%​
Run-a-rack success ........ 80.5%	90.0%​	69.4%​	86.4%​

 

[Johnny Rosato]

Thank you for your work on these stats. I've been waiting to see the comparison charts.
I'm sure many on here appreciate this also.

 

[Patrick Johnson]

Thank you for your work on these stats. I've been waiting to see the comparison charts.
I'm sure many on here appreciate this also.

Yep. Much appreciations.

pj
chgo

 

[gerryf]

Using the statistical approach described by Bob Jewett, if Jayson can maintain around 90 BPI, he'd be even odds to break 400 in about 60 attempts.

So far, in his first Day 2 session, he's averaging 81 BPI, with a potting success nearly the same as Day 1, 98.8%

 

[Patrick Johnson]

Shane​	Ruslan​	Earl​	Jayson​
Balls per inning ......... 62	127​	35​	92​
Potting Success ........ 98.4%	99.2%​	97.2%​	98.9%​
Run-a-rack success ........ 80.5%	90.0%​	69.4%​	86.4%​
View attachment 624349	View attachment 624350	View attachment 624351	View attachment 624352

Great charts.

Ruslan's percentage of 100+ and 200+ runs is twice Jayson's. I'm guessing his breakout runs will be higher too.

pj
chgo

 

[WildWing]

Great, but sounds like they have a lot to get to Babe Cranfield's 768. Maybe one of them will...

 

[gerryf]

This evening's runs weren't good for Jayson. He had a disastrous sequence where it took him 10 innings to get a run to 15, and he struggled all evening.

There appears to be a problem with the video tonight, with about 8 minutes defective. Rosemary Woods says she doesn't know what happened. I'll investigate further when i get a chance.

Day 1 Day 2 Overall Innings 28 43 71 Hi Run 344 308 344 Average BPI 92 52 68 Potting success 98.9% 98.1% 98.6% Rack Success 86.4% 77.9% 82.3%
This puts his BPI, Potting Success, and Run-a-rack success still behind Ruslan, but still ahead of Shane.

 

[gerryf]

Great, but sounds like they have a lot to get to Babe Cranfield's 768. Maybe one of them will...

Don't forget Harold Richardson! He said he ran 812 balls.

 

[gerryf]

Break Statistics, after the evening break for Jayson on Day 3.

	Shane​	Ruslan​	Earl​	Jayson​
Successful break shot	93.0%	94.0%	93.2%	92.8%
Missed the break shot	1.8%	2.0%	3.7%	3.5%
Scratched on the break	5.2%	4.0%	2.5%	3.7%

Note. Earl 'missed on the break' value includes the times he was out of position with no viable break shot, and he just swept the balls.

 

[realkingcobra]

Using the statistical approach described by Bob Jewett, if Jayson can maintain around 90 BPI, he'd be even odds to break 400 in about 60 attempts.

So far, in his first Day 2 session, he's averaging 81 BPI, with a potting success nearly the same as Day 1, 98.8%

And yet on day 2 and 3, he's gone backwards from day 1 right? So 60 attempts or not, he still isn't going to break 400, not going backwards

 

[gerryf]

And yet on day 2 and 3, he's gone backwards from day 1 right? So 60 attempts or not, he still isn't going to break 400, not going backwards

Yeah, he needs to sustain a high BPI to have a good chance.

Right now, he's at 84 BPI for the day, and 71 BPI over the three days. But if you just look at his last 10 innings, he's about 97 BPI.

At 80 BPI, he's got an even chance to hit 400 balls in about 100 attempts.

 

[realkingcobra]

Yeah, he needs to sustain a high BPI to have a good chance.

Right now, he's at 84 BPI for the day, and 71 BPI over the three days. But if you just look at his last 10 innings, he's about 97 BPI.

At 80 BPI, he's got an even chance to hit 400 balls in about 100 attempts.

A player could have an 80 BPI for 20 years and still never run 400+. 14.1 just don't work that way.

 

[gerryf]

A player could have an 80 BPI for 20 years and still never run 400+. 14.1 just don't work that way.

Yeah, it sure looks like it does. It was a bit of a revelation to me too when I worked through the numbers Bob Jewett provided in his discussion about this.

Shane was averaging 63 BPI, and the statistics said he should have equal odds to run 300 about every 100 attempts. He did a 308, in 95 attempts.

Earl was averaging 40 BPI, and the statistics said he'd have an equal opportunity to run 200 about every 100 attempts. He ran two 200's, in 197 attempts.

It's not all that clear cut, since the BPI varies throughout the day, but it does give you an indication. And these are "equal odds" numbers, and real life can be significantly different.

For example, if you take the running average of 10 innings, Shane topped out at 112 BPI, and Jayson has hit 110 BPI. It doesn't last, but those peaks seem to be what drives those really high runs.

But Earl running 40 BPI would mean he'd need about 17,000 attempts to break 400. It may not be exact, but the BPI or the Potting success does give you clues to what to expect.

This is one of the tools bookies use to analyze rare events.

 

[realkingcobra]

Yeah, it sure looks like it does. It was a bit of a revelation to me too when I worked through the numbers Bob Jewett provided in his discussion about this.

Shane was averaging 63 BPI, and the statistics said he should have equal odds to run 300 about every 100 attempts. He did a 308, in 95 attempts.

Earl was averaging 40 BPI, and the statistics said he'd have an equal opportunity to run 200 about every 100 attempts. He ran two 200's, in 197 attempts.

It's not all that clear cut, since the BPI varies throughout the day, but it does give you an indication. And these are "equal odds" numbers, and real life can be significantly different.

For example, if you take the running average of 10 innings, Shane topped out at 112 BPI, and Jayson has hit 110 BPI. It doesn't last, but those peaks seem to be what drives those really high runs.

But Earl running 40 BPI would mean he'd need about 17,000 attempts to break 400. It may not be exact, but the BPI or the Potting success does give you clues to what to expect.

This is one of the tools bookies use to analyze rare events.

Earl only gets credit for running 200+ once, i don't consider a 200+ run split between 2 days. And if you figure he'd run 400+ in 17,000 attempts, how do you explain his 408 and 480 high runs, supposedly!

 

[gerryf]

Earl only gets credit for running 200+ once, i don't consider a 200+ run split between 2 days. And if you figure he'd run 400+ in 17,000 attempts, how do you explain his 408 and 480 high runs, supposedly!

If Earl were running 80 BPI back when he was a spry youngster, he'd be even odds to hit 400 every 100 attempts.

In this event, Earl seemed pretty careless and missed no end of shots that even I could make with regularity. I don't know if he did run 480, but it's not an unreasonable thing for someone with his skill level, particularly when he was in his prime.

If he hadn't been so careless, I think Earl could have been hitting 200s and 300s this event, and since he stuck with it for seven days, it would have been reasonable for him to hit 400 as well.

 

[realkingcobra]

Yeah, it sure looks like it does. It was a bit of a revelation to me too when I worked through the numbers Bob Jewett provided in his discussion about this.

Shane was averaging 63 BPI, and the statistics said he should have equal odds to run 300 about every 100 attempts. He did a 308, in 95 attempts.

Earl was averaging 40 BPI, and the statistics said he'd have an equal opportunity to run 200 about every 100 attempts. He ran two 200's, in 197 attempts.

It's not all that clear cut, since the BPI varies throughout the day, but it does give you an indication. And these are "equal odds" numbers, and real life can be significantly different.

For example, if you take the running average of 10 innings, Shane topped out at 112 BPI, and Jayson has hit 110 BPI. It doesn't last, but those peaks seem to be what drives those really high runs.

But Earl running 40 BPI would mean he'd need about 17,000 attempts to break 400. It may not be exact, but the BPI or the Potting success does give you clues to what to expect.

This is one of the tools bookies use to analyze rare events.

Its not the amount of attempts that will get a 400+ run, its the changing your approach to playing 14.1 by playing better patterns, less wild breaks, loss of control of the cue ball, meaning approaching the game as playing 14.1 not playing 14.1 from a 9B players approach.

 

[gerryf]

Its not the amount of attempts that will get a 400+ run, its the changing your approach to playing 14.1 by playing better patterns, less wild breaks, loss of control of the cue ball, meaning approaching the game as playing 14.1 not playing 14.1 from a 9B players approach.

Yeah, I don't know about that. Ruslan showed what a pro 14.1 player can do, and he is still the top performer in this event with 127 BPI.

Shane and Jayson are shotmakers, and that's what they rely on. They play lousy patterns (according to the 14.1 players I talk to), but they get themselves in trouble and play a hero shot and get out of it.

I remember on one of the matches that Earl commentated, he mentioned this goal of 'getting on the right side of the ball', and he said for top pro's it didn't matter. You gave them any kind of a shot and they'd figure out a way to get position on the next ball whether they were on the right side, or wrong side..

I think Shane and Jayson are doing the same thing. Just making the shots and only worrying about the end pattern when they're down to the last six or seven balls.

 

[realkingcobra]

If Earl were running 80 BPI back when he was a spry youngster, he'd be even odds to hit 400 every 100 attempts.

In this event, Earl seemed pretty careless and missed no end of shots that even I could make with regularity. I don't know if he did run 480, but it's not an unreasonable thing for someone with his skill level, particularly when he was in his prime.

If he hadn't been so careless, I think Earl could have been hitting 200s and 300s this event, and since he stuck with it for seven days, it would have been reasonable for him to hit 400 as well.

Square pegs don't fit in round holes, I don't care how hard you try and make them fit, they just don't.

Patterns, playing the patterns with rather and flow, not blast and pocket what seems available. If you're not able to play 14.1 that way today, you didn't play it that way 30 years ago either. This game, 14.1 in a high run competition, is all about the laws of average. Just because you can blast your way through 100 or 200 balls, that don't mean you can blast your way to 400+. Sooner or later the random, makes no sense pattern of pocketing balls will catch up to the players.

Sooner or later, if you're doing something wrong, I'll catch up to you, and it's catching up with each one of these players. But I would bet on Ruslan running 400+ in no time at all, he's extremely smooth in his running of racks, plays them with almost no effort at all. You never seen him struggling to get through a rack like SVB, Earl, or Jason have struggled.

 

[realkingcobra]

Square pegs don't fit in round holes, I don't care how hard you try and make them fit, they just don't.

Patterns, playing the patterns with rather and flow, not blast and pocket what seems available. If you're not able to play 14.1 that way today, you didn't play it that way 30 years ago either. This game, 14.1 in a high run competition, is all about the laws of average. Just because you can blast your way through 100 or 200 balls, that don't mean you can blast your way to 400+. Sooner or later the random, makes no sense pattern of pocketing balls will catch up to the players.

Sooner or later, if you're doing something wrong, I'll catch up to you, and it's catching up with each one of these players. But I would bet on Ruslan running 400+ in no time at all, he's extremely smooth in his running of racks, plays them with almost no effort at all. You never seen him struggling to get through a rack like SVB, Earl, or Jason have struggled.

So far, this event has had 3 9B players, and 1 straight pool player, and the difference is extremely noticeable, regardless of Ruslans two 266 ball runs, he just vame in, ran them, then left. I can see him breaking 400+ easily in a week of playing.

 

[WildWing]

Seems like Babe's record is secure, regardless of young players on fast cloth. It will not likely happen. Look up some unbreakable records, such as Lou's hitting record, or Cal's consecutive games. Babe's 768 likely isn't going down.