There are no strong favorites this year with many reconstituted teams that have not played together on the big stage. Double play have more moving parts and is more unpredictable (no 'easy' runouts,more likely to make errors, team dynamics, partners tensions etc). There isn't much difference in individual skill level amongst the big teams so it comes down to chemistry, compatibility, mental game ( ability to perform under pressure and overcome adversity) and LUCK. Winners in past years mostly fall into either of 2 categories-
(1)Dictator- sidekick combo (Mika-Petri, Wu-Liu, Filler-Reintjes). Almost like master-servant, the master dictates and the servant defers to the master and follows instructions
(2)Equal speed / complementary styles (Albin-Mario, Efren-Buste, Appleton-Boyes,Orcollo-Lee Van). This combo requires partners who can step up for the team, take over some of the heavy lifting provide moral support when their partner is down or makes error
Based on that and the draw brackets, IMHO, this is how they stack up from most likely to win the cup to least likely:
First favorites (Spain, Taiwan, Netherlands)
Spain (Alcaide -Ruiz) and Taiwan (KOs) know their partners game inside out like back of their hand, are the most compatible and balanced teams of the lot. They also have relatively easiest first 2 matches to get to quarters. Alcaide-Ruiz are like long lost brothers willing to each other take the credit but yet do the hard stuff for the team. Though the KOs are still getting back to form and misfired badly when they played few years ago, it is hard to discount them cos they play train together everyday and would have sorted out their differences.
Netherlands (Niels-Marc)-strong combo who gel really well. Were super last year until they were stonewalled by the freakingly superb Appleton-Boyes. Underachievers in WCOP this could be their year.
The winner this year will be from much tougher left side of bracket. Whoever gets out of that half into final will be well conditioned to win whole thing.
Second favorites (USA, Germany,Philippines,Austria)
USA (SVB Sky) -There is some tension between them . SVB is too dominant tend to "overadvise" and Sky ends up making shots he is uncomfortable with. While they have easier right half of bracket, just to get to last 4, they have to fade phalanx of mid tier opponents in a row- Canada, Poland, Japan who can upset them on any given day.
Germany (Filler Thorsten) –Two former winners from differently constituted teams. Filler is too dominant and is at his best as one man show when he is let loose. For this partnership to work, Thorsten has to defer to Filler and am not sure he can do that as well as a Reintjes. They are in tough left half of bracket and have to take down Holland, Taiwan, Spain just to get to last 4. But more importantly in this competitive era, there is the "NO back to back titles" curse. Yes they are first favorite but they can't fade the curse to retain the title so they are relegated to second favorites
Philippines (Biado-Reyes)- would be bigger favorites 15 years ago. This is a leader-sidekick combo. Efren can instruct and Biado can deliver but can the great man himself execute on his shots.
Austria blew it when they replaced Mario with Lechner. Albin-Lechner are too similar and far cry from Albin-Mario, the best doubles pair in WCOP history. Can newbie debutant Lechner do what Mario does when Albin has bad hair day? Even though they are in easier half of draw, do not rule out an early shock exit.
Dark Horse (Poland, Greece, GB A, GB B)
Poland can make last 4 but unlikely to win it. Despite their deep talent pool, they still underperform or meltdown at big pressure events. Wojciech- Zielinski is a stronger combo than Wojciech-Fortunski. Fortune seems to favor Fortunski as he often gets picked for many Matchroom events over other Poles who should have pole position ahead of him. Is Fortunski called “The Butcher” cos he butcher shots, ouch!
Greece (Kazakis -Nikos)- Great rapport but not sure if the old man of Greek pool, Nikos still has something left in the tank.
GB A (Shaw-Sanderson)-Shaw’s out of blue partner, Sanderson has been unimpressive. Ricky Gervais said once when he was delivering Oscar monologue on stage, he overheard Clint Eastwood in front row blurt out “Who the fxxk is this guy?”. I think many are quietly whispering the same about this Sanderson guy.
GB B (Majid-Melling)-Melling is too individualistic and does not gel well in team setting. Majid is unreal has ego the size of Jupiter. In his mind he is God of pool-in reality it is the reverse, he is Dog of pool. Boyes once said you have to discount what Majid says about his abilities.
Unless Matchroom suddenly say to Appleton “Come back you are forgiven”, GB is going down in “flames”.
Party Crashers (Japan, HongKong, Finland, Singapore,Canada)
Japan (Oi-Masato)- good combo , Oi instructs Masato follows.
Hong Kong (Lo-Capito)-big underdogs but they have nothing to lose and have been giant killers in recent Matchroom events. They won’t win whole thing but they have low expectations and will pop champagne if they make last 8
Finland (Mika -Uski)-Mika-Petri won before so no idea why Petri is not playing. Mika is on fire and not throwing tantrums so we could see some surprise results
Singapore (Yapp-Toh)-They have been playing together for years with poor results. Yap, the difference now is the ascendant Yapp.
Canada (Alex-Morra)-another team with great chemistry but for some reason self destruct at key moments. I think they have still not recovered from this blunder
Blue Moon/Numbers Gang
Serbia, Czech Republic,Italy,Kuwait,Qatar,Vietnam,Argentina,Estonia, Australia, South Africa, Morocco, Cyprus, Hungary, Switzerland, New Zealand, Albania.
They have no chance of winning the cup, make up the numbers and half the field so are bound to entertain with a few shock upsets over some higher ranked teams
Early Shock Exits
Every year, there are big team(s) who are KO early by last 32 or last 16 round. This year, my guess Austria , Germany or Poland. Austria probably holds record for most first round exits in the years before Albin-Mario reign
