8 ball: Going for the runout!

[AdChalk]

Run-out....

Well % is hard to figure... For me, I play more 9 ball than 8 ball but if the table is right, I'm going for it.

If there is trouble, I may duck a shot, knowing I may have a better future break-out shot.

When I'm at the table, I'm winning the game!






............:thumbup:

 

[Eric.]

This choice is a short fly ball, for you baseballers. Your odds of winning by running out are greater by far, than leaving yourself with one ball on the table and only one pocket for the eight. The runout is the only choice, even if your a B player. That is unless your playing your girlfriend.

I think everyone is getting away from what the OP was asking:

What do you think the runout percentage is here?


Eric >less than 30% for me

 

[dfweyer]

What do you think the runout percentage is here?

That is my question...but it may be getting confused with the different poll question.

For example: In the below layout after the break, I'd estimate my runout chances at 70% for stripes and 50% for solids...with both having potential for a big increase/decrease considering break-out success This percentage varies throughout the rack depending on the break-out success, shape & movement of balls.

Stripes has a break-out angle on the 15 right off the bat...but solids would require following the cue on the 4 ball for shape on a thin 2 ball. The longer that you wait for the break-out, your running "Run-out percentage" would decrease.

 

[dabarbr]

I think everyone is getting away from what the OP was asking:

What do you think the runout percentage is here?


Eric >less than 30% for me

In all due respect Eric I interpret the question to be at what percentage gaging your abilities do you attempt a run out? Not just here but any other situation, some will have a higher percentage than others.
In this case I say against a good player if there is any chance you have to take it.
If there is no chance (0%) then you duck like you suggested and hope he makes a major mistake.

Eric, if your'e anywhere near 30%, then you have to go for it.

Against a lower level player and on a bar table we're talking about a horse of a different color. More difficult.

 

[Eric.]

In all due respect Eric I interpret the question to be at what percentage gaging your abilities do you attempt a run out? Not just here but any other situation, some will have a higher percentage than others.
In this case I say against a good player if there is any chance you have to take it.
If there is no chance (0%) then you duck like you suggested and hope he makes a major mistake.

Eric, if your'e anywhere near 30%, then you have to go for it.

Against a lower level player and on a bar table we're talking about a horse of a different color. More difficult.

Thank you, Frank.

Admittedly, my 8 ball strategy needs tweeking from time to time and I appreciate the advice.


Eric

 

[dfweyer]

How does everyone compare the run-out chances of the stripes vs solids in my previous post?

 

[Thunderball]

I vote 10%.....but thats assuming I am playing the five....I just don't see how dumping it helps,or how peeling the 7 off the 8 gets you in better shape overall.

I'd need a ten% look to have a run at it....and I'd feel pretty dam sporty if I got all the way around for the 7 lol,but I've done it (always feel sporty when I do)

As mentioned though,the ship has sailed...ride it out in hopes of a good stroke and for me,a tick of luck.

 

[dfweyer]

Didn't have time to make the 10 attempt video last night at league...but I'll try it at home after work today.

 

[Neil]

................

 

[Eric.]

Neil,

Have you actually tried this on your table? What do you think your percentages are (on the out)?


Eric

 

[Eric.]

Dfweyer,

Did you post the unedited video of your 10 attempts at this? I'm curious to see how you made out.


Eric

 

[enzo]

the thing is, if you're playing good, and playing a relatively weak player, you can usually stop a ball where the other guy cant get out even if you dont get out. hooking yourself from all your balls is really the biggest no-no, and you see the best players do it the least often. i personally go for runouts when i think i have a 5 percent chance if i can get to the trouble balls early..... i try not to do that though if i have to take a chance with only one or two of my balls on the table. a lot of times the best breakout balls are on the other side of the table from the tied up ball because you'll be coming at them from the end rail (and thus toward your other balls)-- good break balls dont always have to be close to the tied up ball... keep that in mind.

if youre playing a good player, same thing, you gotta go for it but you dont have the option of really trying to lay one of your balls to block the holes cus theyll still get out. its all or nothing for sure.

in general, safties only come into play for me what the guys runs all or most of his balls off, misses and happens to leave me a fairly tought shot but a hanger saftey. the other time ill find myself playing safe is when i want stripes after the break but only solids are available, ill try to put him right where i was to see if hell take the tough stripes sometimes, not with a good player though. lucky you. 10 years of learning to win bar box 8 ball right there, and probably nobody will even read it, fine with me.

 

[Neil]

Neil,

Have you actually tried this on your table? What do you think your percentages are (on the out)?


Eric

Yes. I tried it once, and easily got out. I didn't see any point in trying it more times. I would put my chances at a ways over 50%. But then yet, I'm quite used to that shot from playing 9-ball a lot.

 

[Neil]

................

 

[poolhustler]

Can't disagree with that...the shot before was my 2nd breakout attempt in the run.

No disrespect meant, but if you couldn't break out the 7 from your 3 ball shot, my money is against you on finishing the runout.

 

[dfweyer]

Dfweyer,

Did you post the unedited video of your 10 attempts at this? I'm curious to see how you made out.


Eric

I tried this and got out 3 out of 17 with one being quite ugly on the 8... it was quite frustrating. I'll try to upload it tonight and will probably cut out some of the cue slamming, walk kicking and ball throwing.

Seriously though..it was much more difficult than I remember in league. I guess I was a lucky sh!t like he said.

Shoulda took the bet...I doubt I coulda ran the camera for 50 attempts and found a stretch of 4 out of 10.

 

[dfweyer]

No disrespect meant, but if you couldn't break out the 7 from your 3 ball shot, my money is against you on finishing the runout.

I was trying to barely hit the 7, moving the 11 to the rail. Wanted to still have shape on the 5 so I could save the 7 to get on the 8.

 

[Eric.]

I tried this and got out 3 out of 17 with one being quite ugly on the 8... it was quite frustrating. I'll try to upload it tonight and will probably cut out some of the cue slamming, walk kicking and ball throwing.

Seriously though..it was much more difficult than I remember in league. I guess I was a lucky sh!t like he said.

Shoulda took the bet...I doubt I coulda ran the camera for 50 attempts and found a stretch of 4 out of 10.

That's what I was saying; there is a lot that can go wrong with this shot for even the top players.

Getting a shot on the 7 is not so tough. Getting a DECENT shot on the 7 to get on the 8 is the trick, especially since one corner pocket is blocked and I'm not crazy about banking the 8 long rail for the win (maybe a better banker does).

IMHO, I feel that IF someone was a strong banker, this out becomes much easier. If you're trying to have a cut on the 8 into the corner, then you are in deep poo.

That being said, I feel dabarber's advice of still having to go for it was spot on. Basically, you screwed yourself into a deep hole and it's time to take a shot at the endzone.


Eric

 

[dfweyer]

Basically, you screwed yourself into a deep hole and it's time to take a shot at the endzone.

Sometimes it works...

Sometimes it doesn't...

 

[Cornerman]

That being said, I feel dabarber's advice of still having to go for it was spot on. Basically, you screwed yourself into a deep hole and it's time to take a shot at the endzone.


Eric

Exactly! And this is the beauty and curse of 8-ball. Quite often, the moment you decide to shoot at the first ball, you've committed to going for the out. I think that on good equipment and tough competition, it's a low percentage of games that you're not going to go for the whole ball of wax right from the get-go, especially when it's near the end of the tournament when everyone left is a runout player.

Smaller table might get more safeties, I think, compared to big tables. But, small tables that are playing well (like at the BCAPL Nationals), safeties are all but forgotten among the top players, IMO.

Fred