8 ball: Going for the runout!

[dfweyer]

Dfweyer,

Did you post the unedited video of your 10 attempts at this?

Woulda been happy to pay up on the bet...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sC17p5GYfeg

 

[StevenPWaldon]

This is probably the best reply. If you've gotten to the point that the runout is highly unlikely, your biggest problem isn't what lies ahead -- it's what you did to get to that point.

You make some good points on why the safe isn't the strongest response.

I gave my opinion on what I would do in this situation. Truthfully, I would have never let myself get into this situation in the first place. The error was made several shots before. Why would anyone run down to 2 balls, with one of them in an awkward position AND no decent key ball to get on the 8? More improtantly, why would anyone leave that 7 tied up til late in the rack?


Eric

 

[DelaWho???]

That is my question...but it may be getting confused with the different poll question.

For example: In the below layout after the break, I'd estimate my runout chances at 70% for stripes and 50% for solids...with both having potential for a big increase/decrease considering break-out success This percentage varies throughout the rack depending on the break-out success, shape & movement of balls.

Stripes has a break-out angle on the 15 right off the bat...but solids would require following the cue on the 4 ball for shape on a thin 2 ball. The longer that you wait for the break-out, your running "Run-out percentage" would decrease.

The 3 ball cluster with the 8 ball isn't really that problematic. You could play follow on the 4 as you suggest, or cheat the pocket and stun the CB straight into the 8 without the rail. Either way you have a couple of plan B balls up the table if you get less than a positive outcome on the attempt. For me the reason to take stripes is the 5 ball on the rail with only 1 pocket, or a carom off the 10 into the side. The stripes are laying slightly better, but I'd give it a 55/45 split and probably take the stripes.