Here is a layout from last night. A friend and fellow AZer had this shot.
What do you do?? Shooter is solids.
I will make a second post later with the shot he decided on taking. The other player is a very good player if that makes a difference and the score is 2-2 in a race to 7.
How about a 3-rail kick uptable to make the one? With the two railer off the short rail, the cue ball is going toward the long rail that the 8 is on and there is a lot of traffic. With the 3-railer, the cue ball will glance off toward the other side pocket, take a lot of speed off and if you make the 1, you have a very makeable shot on the 8. Or, maybe a masse? Can't wait to see what he did!
Tying up one of his balls with either the 8-Ball or the one ball increases your chances of winning. In this pattern, I would be more likely to tie up the 8 as there are no breakout balls around it. Going for any kick, unless you kick like Efren, is a sell-out shot unless you get lucky or hit the ball perfectly. A good player would safety you back if given the opportunity, the nice thing about tying up the ball, is if he tries to leave a breakout ball and play safe, you can simply pocket his ball and he can try again.
Tying up one of his balls with either the 8-Ball or the one ball increases your chances of winning. In this pattern, I would be more likely to tie up the 8 as there are no breakout balls around it. Going for any kick, unless you kick like Efren, is a sell-out shot unless you get lucky or hit the ball perfectly. A good player would safety you back if given the opportunity, the nice thing about tying up the ball, is if he tries to leave a breakout ball and play safe, you can simply pocket his ball and he can try again.
I'm hoping that by having 2 problem areas on the table, it will give me a free shot to kick (I will definitely be kicking) at my ball and hope that I kicked it into a good spot i.e. hanging in the corner pocket.
Having 2 or more problem areas for him, gives me a lil insurance that my kick won't be an all out sell out.
I'm hoping that by having 2 problem areas on the table, it will give me a free shot to kick (I will definitely be kicking) at my ball and hope that I kicked it into a good spot i.e. hanging in the corner pocket.
Having 2 or more problem areas for him, gives me a lil insurance that my kick won't be an all out sell out.
Exactly! Prior to making the kick shot, I would say that most players can probably boast maybe a 10% ratio of making or getting a good hit & roll out of it (that percentage is probably high, especially since you are kicking past the side pocket). If you have put yourself in this situation, your chances of winning if you kick at the one and don't make it or get lucky are zero. By tying up the 8-ball, you increase your chances of winning by smart play. I can't count how many games I could have tried a hail mary shot, but didn't, and was able to pull out a W in a low percentage win situation. On the reverse, I can't count how many times I have shot a crazy shot instead of a smart one and lost because of it. There are very few instances where the low percentage shot beats solid and smart play.
That's what I thought you say! Truth is, many times that will work. But, remember that in THIS case, you are playing a good player. So he isn't likely to do something dumb or make a position error that big. A good player would just break out that ball and hook you again. Now, he has another ball out in the open, thanks to you. And, your odds of winning just went down some more.
What I am getting at, is to look ahead several shots. If I do this, what will he do in return? Will that help me? Or hurt me? Right now, I have a chance, albeit a small one, to win. I feel you have to take the chance when you have it in this case. You aren't likely to get another chance to win. A good player can play safe on you for hours with this set up, and all you will be doing is kicking at the one. Usually with no reward for making it. This particular case gives you a reward if you make it. If you don't make it. you are no worse off than giving him ball-in-hand.
"Good player" is subjective. I have played many good players that don't know how to react when a player opts to tie up an open ball instead of trying a low percentage shot. It is always best to play the best strategy and fundamentals regardless of who your opponent is.
Very often, that is the right thing to do. In this particular case, I don't think it is. The only ball you have a real option of tying up the eight with it the 14. His next shot, with ball in hand, would be to skim that ball, breaking it back out, and hooking you.
Now, where the 14 only had one pocket, and the 13 none, they both have several pockets that they go in. So, in reality, you have made his situation better for him.
Whenever you are going to play safe, or tie up your opponents balls, or one of yours (the 8) with his, you have to look farther ahead several shots, and see if it helps you or hurts you.
I like your thinking on this as you are right, trying to tie up the 8 leads to nothing. I still think a deliberate foul is the only option as the long kick is so much a sell out. Maybe bumping 2 of the other balls together might be better.
I like your thinking on this as you are right, trying to tie up the 8 leads to nothing. I still think a deliberate foul is the only option as the long kick is so much a sell out. Maybe bumping 2 of the other balls together might be better.
I liked the idea because it does give you a chance of winning and also gives the cueball a chance to get up table.
IMO tying up the eight here might work against a lower level player but I didnt like it too much against a solid A player. Also its just not that easy to tie up the 8.
I think I have the layout pretty close.
Anyway he drilled it and then knocked down the eight ball to win,
One funny thing was that we were discussing the shot before he shot it during a TO. Just going over options but the players already had the shot pegged. A few guys where there watching and this was the exchange.
" man I think they are talking about kikcing that ball three rails and making it into the side"
"I KNOW.. not only that they are talking about where the cueball will be for shape on the eight!!"
I kind of got a chuckle out of that. I know both guys and afterwards they were talking about just not seeing stuff like this or that their brain never thinks like that.
Best part was the shooter wsa my teammate and knocked off their guy. 7-3 making it possible for me to just win my match next and we would win.
I got lucky and pulled it out.
I basically agree with Neil's thinking on this one. Also, I'm not sure why the long kick on the one is such an obvious sell-out -- if you don't make it, you have some reasonable chance to block or tie up the 9, w/o giving up ball-in-hand.
I liked the idea because it does give you a chance of winning and also gives the cueball a chance to get up table.
IMO tying up the eight here might work against a lower level player but I didnt like it too much against a solid A player. Also its just not that easy to tie up the 8.
I think I have the layout pretty close.
Anyway he drilled it and then knocked down the eight ball to win,
One funny thing was that we were discussing the shot before he shot it during a TO. Just going over options but the players already had the shot pegged. A few guys where there watching and this was the exchange.
" man I think they are talking about kikcing that ball three rails and making it into the side"
"I KNOW.. not only that they are talking about where the cueball will be for shape on the eight!!"
I kind of got a chuckle out of that. I know both guys and afterwards they were talking about just not seeing stuff like this or that their brain never thinks like that.
Best part was the shooter wsa my teammate and knocked off their guy. 7-3 making it possible for me to just win my match next and we would win.
I got lucky and pulled it out.
That was my FIRST thought!!! Wow, I was right!!!!
My first rule in a situation like this. If the safe is just as difficult as the shot, then go for the shot. Just my thoughts
