I Beg To Disagree About The Future
Obviously everyone is entitled to their opinion and naturally, mine is not infallible but for that matter, neither is anyone else's. Collectibility values are always determined by supply and demand.
Once an item is wanted, its demand is affected by the item's desirability, i.e, condition, appearance. Pristine items will always command higher prices, regardless of type item.
Final values of any type item are based upon the two driving principles of collectability: Scarcity and Rarity.
Scarcity: How many of that specific type pool cue by that specific manufacturer were ever made........thus 1 of 1 pool cues are customarily more valuable & desirable.
Rarity: How many of those pool cues still exist in good/excellent condition and are available?
While it is true the resale market has been in the doldrums the past 3-4 years, the one irrefutable fact remains that highly collectible cues have not lost value during this period. These cues did not gain in appreciation but the fact is their core strength was the intrinsic value these cues retained because of scarcity and rarity. And when the cue-maker is retired or deceased, like a George Balabushka who only made between 1100 & 1200 cues during his cue-making career, those cues will always be in demand.
Whether or not these cues are ultimately acquired for personal play, as an investment or just to be a showoff because the owner is affluent & whimsical, these type cues will remain in vogue and thus highly desirable. The list of great cue-makers is indeed longer than one might otherwise have contemplated. However, the popular names, the cue-makers that everyone would love to own........those represent a much smaller population of cue-makers.
Only time will confirm which one of us is right.........I suspect that people who don't believe any piece of wood is worth $1k, 2k, $3k, $5k, $10k etc, or folks that can't afford one of those type cues, would be more inclined to agree with the forecasted bleak outlook for the cue resale market. And for some people, it's just too easy and tempting not to be pessimistic because down deep they want to be right and then they can scoff at everyone who didn't listen or believe what they were predicting......the Nostradamus Syndrome. And of course, owners of collectible, expensive cues, or even people looking to own these great masterpieces, are understandably rooting in the opposite direction, i.e., value appreciation.
I just look at the facts.....stamps, automobiles, guns, knives, paintings, furniture, books etc.....the rules of scarcity and rarity still successfully applies to deciding the overall value of these type collectibles. Personally, I'd never pay a $1000 for a rare book, especially if I can get an inexpensive reprint or an e-reader version.......but that's just me. These books still sell and are in great demand.......it's obvious that the other fellow is pessimistic but perhaps if he studied reality a little closer, he'd at least be more open-minded. Regardless, it's highly improbable he'd ever spend the money to get a high end cue and I suspect he'll remain steadfast in his viewpoint about the future of the resale market.