Another One Pocket Handicap Question

1 Pocket Ghost

1 Pocket Ghost

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Here's a One Pocket handicap/odds comparison that I've always pondered....Experienced One Pocket players like myself and others on here can make a guess at it, Billy, Grady or Freddy would probably have a good take on it, but I think it probably takes a math/statistics expert to give the definitive answer....Here's the question:

What One Pocket spot in balls, would be exactly equal to playing even and giving up 2 to 1 on the money - would it be 12-6, 12-7, 11-7, 10-7, 9-7, or what ?

- Ghost
 
Last edited:
??????????

IMO no spot in balls is equal to 2 to 1 on the money. Think about it when your opponent wins one game an gets paid for 2? 2 to 1 on the money can be hard to out run. You must win 2 out of 3 to break even if your opponent ever wins 2 in a row you must win 5 to get paid. Normally 2 to one is a nineball spot due to the luck factor. Normally when someone is getting 2 to 1 in onepocket they are also getting balls to go with the money spot.
Pinocchio
 
1 Pocket Ghost said:
Here's a One Pocket handicap/odds comparison that I've always pondered....Experienced One Pocket players like myself and others on here can make a guess at it, Billy, Grady or Freddy would probably have a good take on it, but I think it probably takes a math/statistics expert to give the definitive answer....Here's the question:

What One Pocket spot in balls, would be exactly equal to giving up 2 to 1 on the money - would it be 12-7, 11-7, 10-7, 9-7, or what ?

- Ghost
Click to expand...

Depends on the two players involved.

Efren could give me 2 to 1 on the money, and it's equivalent to an even game. We could play all day and all night and I'd probably never win a game. He'd collect 1 bet every time he got to 8 before I did; same as if we were playing even. If I happened to catch a gear and capitalize on an uncharacteristic Reyes mistake and run 8 and out, then there's a little difference, but it's a VERY little difference, as this would only happen once in every many racks (probably dozens).

Whereas someone who I'd probably need 11-7 from, I'd rather get 2-1 on the money. If I can win half the games getting 11-7, I can probably win more than 1/3 of the games playing even. And if I'm winning more than 1/3 of the games with 2-1, I'm coming out ahead.

For any pro playing any other pro, I think 2-1 beats just about any other spot they can give. They run balls so well the high numbers of balls needed doesn't mean as much. Whereas 2-1 on the money, even a pro not known for their one-pocket skills can probably find a way to run out in 1 out of 3 racks, pretty much regardless of who they're playing.

Just my $.02.

-Andrew
 
I would say that if you can give a guy 8-6 or better, than playing him even you should win at least twice as many games. That's my educated guess. I've never heard this one before.
 
1 Pocket Ghost said:
... but I think it probably takes a math/statistics expert to give the definitive answer....Here's the question:

What One Pocket spot in balls, would be exactly equal to playing even and giving up 2 to 1 on the money - would it be 12-7, 11-7, 10-7, 9-7, or what ?

- Ghost
Click to expand...
Well, it depends on what kind of assumptions you make, as seen in the other 1P handicapping thread. If you assume that the game will take more than a few innings and is not dominated by long runs, two even players who play at 9-7 should have 30%/70% win percentages, which is a little stiffer than 2-1 on the money. For a 12-10 spot, I get 66.8%:33.2% between equal players.

If two players are even at 8-6, as in Jay's scenario, and they play even, I get a win ratio of 72.4%:27.6%.

If long runs are more of a factor, then the spot will not make as much difference. That is, if the first mistake leads to a runout by either player nearly every time, the spot has little effect. In the same way, the winning 8 is a large spot between bangers, but not so much between top players. In such a situation, 9-7 might be the right answer for the first case and you might get 2:1 win ratio in Jay's case.
 
jay helfert said:
I would say that if you can give a guy 8-6 or better, than playing him even you should win at least twice as many games. That's my educated guess. I've never heard this one before.
Click to expand...

I have played this type of game twice. Once recently a guy I give 10-6 to asked to play even 2-1 on the money. I won 8 straight games and won $400.

Years ago your fellow card player Jean Robert Bellande who I gave 10-6 to asked me to play even 3-1 on the money for $100 a game. I won 19 straight games and he looked at me puzzled and said what should he do. I said I would have quit 18 games ago if I were him. He paid me off.

So my record against the 2 of them is 27 games won and 0 lost and $2300 up.
 
wayne said:
I have played this type of game twice. Once recently a guy I give 10-6 to asked to play even 2-1 on the money. I won 8 straight games and won $400.

Years ago your fellow card player Jean Robert Bellande who I gave 10-6 to asked me to play even 3-1 on the money for $100 a game. I won 19 straight games and he looked at me puzzled and said what should he do. I said I would have quit 18 games ago if I were him. He paid me off.

So my record against the 2 of them is 27 games won and 0 lost and $2300 up.
Click to expand...
The simple math says that if you play a 10-6 guy 8-8 you should give him 6:1 on the money since he is expected to win only about 15% of the games.
 
Bob Jewett said:
The simple math says that if you play a 10-6 guy 8-8 you should give him 6:1 on the money since he is expected to win only about 15% of the games.
Click to expand...


Bob, With all due respect, I'm thinking that there's way too much human element involved for cold math to supply the correct answer....

For example, pressure: Using your 'cold math' example copied above, if the guy going to 6 wins the flip and breaks first, and happens to win that game, that is going to put a ton of pressure on his opponent, knowing that he has to win the next 6 in a row just to get even!........And the guy going to 6, realizing this, and knowing that he has a 6 game cushion, can try some low percentage flyer shots, attempting to get in position to run 6 balls and out, thus putting even more pressure on the guy going to 10.
 
Last edited:
1 Pocket Ghost said:
Bob, With all due respect, I'm thinking that there's way too much human element involved for cold math to supply the correct answer....

For example, pressure: Using your 'cold math' example copied above, if the guy going to 6 wins the flip and breaks first, and happens to win that game, that is going to put a ton of pressure on his opponent, knowing that he has to win the next 6 in a row just to get even........And the guy going to 6, realizing this, and knowing that he has a 6 game cushion, can try some low percentage flyer shots, attempting to get in position to run 6 balls and out, thus puting even more pressure on the guy going to 10.
Click to expand...
Ghost, just reading this along wih the other thread on this topic should cause all nonplaying onepocket players to look more closely at the game.
No other billiard game I can thin of allows so many different types of spots to choose from enabling a wise gambler an unlimited scope of hustling territory. That is why I think the most money bet in billiards is bet on onepocket games.
In a related story years ago a hustler at the Chicago Billiard Cafe played a banger 5:1 on the money in onepocket. It was aslow day for him and he needed to generate some cash somehow so he offered this game. No sooner than he'd be up four or five games the banger wuld shoot a flyer and amazingly win a game. The few of us who were sweating this couldn't hold back the laughter (I'm laughing now just recalling it). Anyways to make a long story short it was hilarious and a good reason not to play giving these types of odds. I think Freddy has alluded to this also. Freddy also doesn't like to give up the break as a spot. You little leaguers out there listen to Freddy when he speaks 'cause he knows a hell of a lot. Philw P.S. Interesting thread Ghost
 
1 Pocket Ghost said:
... I'm thinking that there's way too much human element involved for cold math to supply the correct answer....
...
Click to expand...
Sure, which is why I said, "simple math." In some sense that may also be the "simple-minded math" but math does give a "reasonable" answer depending on the assumptions you make. If both players are steady and continue to play their regular games, you get one answer. If one of them is a little unbalanced, then funny things might happen. I used to play one guy all the time. If he felt he was being treated unfairly somehow, he would miss easy shots, and that made things worse. Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde. You need psychology, not math, to figure those things out. Math can give the right answer if the other stuff is not significant or balances out. On any given Sunday....
 
wayne said:
I have played this type of game twice. Once recently a guy I give 10-6 to asked to play even 2-1 on the money. I won 8 straight games and won $400.

Years ago your fellow card player Jean Robert Bellande who I gave 10-6 to asked me to play even 3-1 on the money for $100 a game. I won 19 straight games and he looked at me puzzled and said what should he do. I said I would have quit 18 games ago if I were him. He paid me off.

So my record against the 2 of them is 27 games won and 0 lost and $2300 up.
Click to expand...

I may have to play you this way too. :)
2-1 is too good to pass up.
Make it 3-1 and you've got me for life. :D
 
speed of players

1 Pocket Ghost said:
Bob, With all due respect, I'm thinking that there's way too much human element involved for cold math to supply the correct answer....

For example, pressure: Using your 'cold math' example copied above, if the guy going to 6 wins the flip and breaks first, and happens to win that game, that is going to put a ton of pressure on his opponent, knowing that he has to win the next 6 in a row just to get even!........And the guy going to 6, realizing this, and knowing that he has a 6 game cushion, can try some low percentage flyer shots, attempting to get in position to run 6 balls and out, thus putting even more pressure on the guy going to 10.
Click to expand...
Bruce, your right on with your assesment of extra pressure creating execution problems for the player laying the odds. But there is also another variable that has not been mentioned,and that is ,the stronger the two players are the more difficult it is to lay 2/1. Reason being that top players can often get out in one and two inning games.If you watch two upper echelon one pocket players play,chart the scores of the games played. I think you would be surprised to see how many lopsided scores you would see. Jay figured that 8/6 would be a fairly acurate guess,I disagree I think ,particularly when two top players are playing.More like9/6or 11/7. Just my opinion. when two weak players are playing,8/6 might be right on.
 
Whatever spot that would give the opponent enough edge to win twice as many games as he would if playing even.
And I don't think there is a raw math formula for that.
 
wincardona said:
Bruce, your right on with your assesment of extra pressure creating execution problems for the player laying the odds. But there is also another variable that has not been mentioned,and that is ,the stronger the two players are the more difficult it is to lay 2/1. Reason being that top players can often get out in one and two inning games.If you watch two upper echelon one pocket players play,chart the scores of the games played. I think you would be surprised to see how many lopsided scores you would see. Jay figured that 8/6 would be a fairly acurate guess,I disagree I think ,particularly when two top players are playing.More like9/6or 11/7. Just my opinion. when two weak players are playing,8/6 might be right on.
Click to expand...

Billy,
Where were you when I needed you on Bill Porters-- 15-10 vs. 8 to 6 thread yesterday ?

Dick
 
wincardona said:
I think ,particularly when two top players are playing...More like9/6or 11/7.
Click to expand...


Ok, I was also thinking the numbers would be somewhere around what you said....So let me firm this for myself by swinging these numbers over to real people whose speeds we know...

So Billy correct me if I'm wrong......Using your numbers I'm interpreting them to think that if Cliff or Scott Frost gave you or Larry Schwartz, or J. Rawski the 2 to 1 on the money, playing even, than Cliff or Scott would be a small favorite..............But if Cliff or Scott Frost gave Richie Rich or Ike Runnels the 2 to 1 on the money, playing even, than Cliff or Scott would be a small dog.......Is this about right ?
 
1 Pocket Ghost said:
Ok, I was also thinking the numbers would be somewhere around what you said....So let me firm this for myself by swinging these numbers over to real people whose speeds we know...

So Billy correct me if I'm wrong......Using your numbers I'm interpreting them to think that if Cliff or Scott Frost gave you or Larry Schwartz, or J. Rawski the 2 to 1 on the money, playing even, than Cliff or Scott would be a small favorite..............But if Cliff or Scott Frost gave Richie Rich or Ike Runnels the 2 to 1 on the money, playing even, than Cliff or Scott would be a small dog.......Is this about right ?
Click to expand...

Somewhat correct, you grouped me with Larry and John who both play at least 9/7 under me. So Scott or Cliff would have an easy time laying 2 to 1 against them.where as Richie plays 9/8 over Ike and Ike plays 9/8 on his break over me.Richie would win easy over the duo,Ike would win close,and I would be a toss up. But I would play anyone in the world,except Reyes getting 2/1 just for the experience to see how it would turn out.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top