exactly right. that is why i said the top men players in the world would LOVE to break and run out 30% of the time.
i believe that i would even lay johnny archer 5-2 or maybe 3-1 on the money breaking and running out.
if a top player is in dead gear, playing on soft equipment thats breaking consistently, maybe 30% is more normal. however, i think in the long run if you laid 3-1 you would get the cheese. the problem is with a player like archer he's liable to get up there and put a 5 or 6 together and then you have to wait it out like 20 racks to get even. but, eventually in the long run, 30% is more like a goal rather than a standard.
i think that if playing a top player, if you break and run 30% of the time throughout the whole session, you will undoubtedly get the cheese.
i've watched great players like archer, strickland, reyes, bustamante, etc play whole races to 7, 9, 11, 13 or 15 and maybe only break and run 1 or two racks. then again, i've watched them run packages too. if luck is on their side, and the table breaks well and plays soft, they can beat the odds of 30% from time to time, but in the long run, even the greatest players in the world dream of breaking and running out 30% of the time on any kind of equipment.
that is why the break is so important in 9-ball. if you can put packages on your opponent, you can beat anybody. not even efren reyes can beat you if he's sitting in the chair. running the balls in 9-ball has become such a common thing, even with amateur players that now most matches where there's not alot of breaking and running out come down to moves and safeties as well as management of the table. that is why efren is such a great player, not that he can't run packages, but he relies on the more consistant method of being able to outmove and outmanage his opponents and has the firepower to gun them down once he gets a legitimate opportunity(or sometime an illegitimate opportunity where he makes an unbelieveable runout from nowhere, hence making him the magician.) then you may say, how come the great movers always get gunned down by the straight shooters. it's simple, like i said with efren, he has both talents mastered, he'll out move and out manage his opponent and he possesses the skills and firepower to get the cheese when the opportunity comes.
sorry, went off on a tangent.