I guess, I am trying to understand if there is any objective scientific way of determining which kick has the highest percent chance of hitting (Besides just looking at it).
A few basic principles to keep in mind related to your question:
- The longer the physical distance that the CB travels before hitting the OB, the less margin of error there is for the hit.
- The more rails you need to hit, the harder the hit is to judge on average. An exception for this is that 2-railers, or sometimes even 3-railers might be easier than 1-railers in specific circumstances, if you have practiced 2-3 rail kicks a lot and are good at them. This is due to their somewhat self-correcting nature when keeping up running side during the whole shot, e.g. going long rail -> short rail, whereas long rail -> long rail wouldn't be self-correcting. The idea here is that running side stays if you alternate which rail you hit after eachother, so long -> short or short -> long keeps it, but same rail twice in a row doesn't (long -> long or short -> short).
- Your memory/intuition is very good at determining your personal odds for hitting particular shots. If faced with two shots, where A is 90% of players choice, you should never override your personal experiences with the "correct" shots out of principle. B might still be better for you if you have practiced it more and have a realistic sense of your own chances and favor it over A. Obviously there's a reason why 90% would choose A, and you should practice that shot in the future. But in a real game situation, you will do whatever gives you the best odds at a given time.
- Kicks that are more sensitive to power are less preferable. Avoid side spin unless necessary, especially if elevated. For 1-railers, use a rolling ball. For 2-3 railers that are self-correcting, use running side with top. For 2 railers that are long rail -> long rail or short rail -> short rail, use a rolling ball.
In practice, you are best off trying out various kicking methods, both feel-based and system-based, for various types of shots, and over time building a sense of how likely you are to hit different kicks, then trusting that judgement within game situations. In other words, expertise trumps theory, even if theory was originally used to build expertise.
. It can be frustrating, but that's the internet.