Break and run out

AtLarge does a great roundup of tourneys including statistics. At the 2023 Turning Stone classic, the PROS broke and ran out 35% of the time. So, statistically speaking, if you are an amateur, you should probably be under that. 10% for a 550 Fargo might be a good guess. 20% for a 650? the 750+ are doing it 30%+, so that all seems in the ballpark, no?

Separately, IMO, the more important statistic for league players is how many times did you try to run out, but then fail, and you left your opponent an easy win because you didn't play an easy safety. That is, are you going for the run out every time, or are you going for the win every time? They are not necessarily the same.

Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXXVI 9-Ball Open, January 2023

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the Turning Stone Classic XXXVI 9-Ball Open played January 5-8, 2023 at the Turning Stone Resort Casino in Verona, New York. Free live streaming was provided by AZBtv on the Facebook page of UpState AL and on YouTube. This was a 128-player...
forums.azbilliards.com

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 40% (48 of 119)
Match losers -- 25% (17 of 67)
Total -- 35% (65 of 186)

-td
 
td873 said:
AtLarge does a great roundup of tourneys including statistics. At the 2023 Turning Stone classic, the PROS broke and ran out 35% of the time. So, statistically speaking, if you are an amateur, you should probably be under that. 10% for a 550 Fargo might be a good guess. 20% for a 650? the 750+ are doing it 30%+, so that all seems in the ballpark, no?

Separately, IMO, the more important statistic for league players is how many times did you try to run out, but then fail, and you left your opponent an easy win because you didn't play an easy safety. That is, are you going for the run out every time, or are you going for the win every time? They are not necessarily the same.

Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXXVI 9-Ball Open, January 2023

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the Turning Stone Classic XXXVI 9-Ball Open played January 5-8, 2023 at the Turning Stone Resort Casino in Verona, New York. Free live streaming was provided by AZBtv on the Facebook page of UpState AL and on YouTube. This was a 128-player...
forums.azbilliards.com

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 40% (48 of 119)
Match losers -- 25% (17 of 67)
Total -- 35% (65 of 186)

-td
Click to expand...
That is not a pro field, many amateurs.
More pressure.
Possibly funny break rules
No jump cues
No magic rack
Tight 9 foot tables
 

FargoRate

FargoRate owns and maintains the rating system known as Fargo Ratings. These ratings rank pool players worldwide and from any skill level on the same scale.
www.fargorate.com

fargo says a 400 player runs out 1% of the time, a 500 player 5%. they dont specify on the higher rankings, but for 600 they say “Has run three-in-a-row multiple times and maybe four-in-a row a time or two.”

5% = 1/20, which sounds about right for me, maybe even a bit high. if i break and run it’s a good day. i did run 3 in a row on the bih ghost once but that is not the norm.
 
hang-the-9 said:
Usually fail due to a small position error where I hook myself or get out of line a bit on a ball, something silly and very close to getting right.
Click to expand...
There's always one ball I can't get to, or 1 missed position, or 1 dogged shot. Because of the cumulative nature of the game, a lot of things have to go right to run a rack. The odds of making 8 75% shots in a row is 10%.
 
td873 said:
Separately, IMO, the more important statistic for league players is how many times did you try to run out, but then fail, and you left your opponent an easy win because you didn't play an easy safety.
Click to expand...
Last night I was going to park the cue ball behind a couple of balls. The object ball wound up knocking both out the way, leaving a nice clear lane for my opponent. Never again. ALL offence ALL the time. I'd rather go for a highlight reel shot and sell out than blow a safety and sell out.
 
SeniorTom said:
How often can you break and run out?
In league play this year I only did it once
Click to expand...
How often CAN I? Probably more often than I do. I'd rather leave the opponent a 5% chance of getting out than running up to the 8 or 9 B and missing.

I can run out more often on 8B but nobody plays 8B seriously around here. I mean, it's played but the higher skill levels prefer rotation.

I gain nothing by running out in league, I gain by being able to do so in practice, but in league... a W is a W, and a W is easier than a B&R.
 
The most consecutive B&R at 8 ball on an 8' table, that I have seen was 5 and produced by a Girl, Sandy Watson in a Ladies tournament.
My best not B&R but consecutive one visit wins....was 4 in the league finals. But I only played 4 games. 🤷 Bob Brown did it too. I was the top player in the East Side league that year. You know Bellevue Redmond Kirkland. I got in the league because it offered me the introduction to players that had recreational money limits much higher than I could find in West Seattle. 🤷
Seriously 8 ball is easier to B&R on a 9' table.
I have no clue what my B&R percentage is. My wins to losses is the stat that matters. The half hour games won are the ones I remember. Or even lost. I felt good about how long I held off Rafael Martinez in a tournament 8 ball game. It took him a long time to get me in handcuffs. A Defensive battle that's More memorable than my B&R against The Miz.
 
Zerksies said:
For me it depends on the lay of the table after the break. If i have something workable i'm probably running out
Click to expand...
On 7 footers, I prefer 2 or 3 balls on the break. Then, more often than not, it's a duck fest. I don't like wasting time on difficult outs at the bar; surveillance, strangers etc... When we had pool rooms, usually anything on the break left a runout.
 
soyale said:
fargo says a 400 player runs out 1% of the time, a 500 player 5%. they dont specify on the higher rankings, but for 600 they say “Has run three-in-a-row multiple times and maybe four-in-a row a time or two.”
Click to expand...
That seems pretty accurate to me.
I'm just under 600, and I've run 4 and 5 racks a few times, and occasionally put a 2 pack together. Just about any decent session of 8 ball or rotation will include at least one B&R.
It's tough to run multiple racks these days though, almost everyone wants alternating breaks. :(
 
Since we are talking BB8ball, in my last 3 outings that I can recall my B&R was about 50% but it's a small sample size of only about 10 racks with the break.
All were played on blue label 7' Diamonds.
I think my actual average is 30-35%.
I don't break as well in 9ball (need to work on it). I'd say my 9ball B&R is at about 10% -about the same as it is on a 9'.
 
td873 said:
AtLarge does a great roundup of tourneys including statistics. At the 2023 Turning Stone classic, the PROS broke and ran out 35% of the time. So, statistically speaking, if you are an amateur, you should probably be under that. 10% for a 550 Fargo might be a good guess. 20% for a 650? the 750+ are doing it 30%+, so that all seems in the ballpark, no?

Separately, IMO, the more important statistic for league players is how many times did you try to run out, but then fail, and you left your opponent an easy win because you didn't play an easy safety. That is, are you going for the run out every time, or are you going for the win every time? They are not necessarily the same.

Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXXVI 9-Ball Open, January 2023

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the Turning Stone Classic XXXVI 9-Ball Open played January 5-8, 2023 at the Turning Stone Resort Casino in Verona, New York. Free live streaming was provided by AZBtv on the Facebook page of UpState AL and on YouTube. This was a 128-player...
forums.azbilliards.com

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 40% (48 of 119)
Match losers -- 25% (17 of 67)
Total -- 35% (65 of 186)

-td
Click to expand...
I'm sure there are plenty of non world beaters that would bet they can get above 50% against the ghost.

Tournament data is somewhat inaccurate coz there can be a significant reward for not making a ball...

Which is why these guys need to use the whole rack and incoming player has bih after opponent's miss!
 
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