Break Stats -- 2013 Mosconi Cup, Dec. 2013

[CreeDo]

Amazing how small rule changes completely alter the game.
Actually it isn't even a rules change, it was a "gentleman's agreement".

By agreeing to break with randomness instead of controlled skill, the rate of balls made on the break
dropped from about 60-65% (comparing to, say, US Open stats) to 35%.

It's actually worse than that probably. The US Open break stats are somewhat diluted by
donators who don't have pro-quality breaks, and the MC is all top pros.

In turn, the break and run rate REALLY tanked - from (typically) 20% to 5%.
Whereas if there are no agreements or restrictions, we've seen as high as 50% (Shane vs. Corey).

It looks like both teams were equally productive both in making balls and break'n'runs,
and the big difference is what happened after a dry break (which is 2/3rds of the games).
USA only found a way to convert 8 out of 40 into wins.

Since we know Europe wasn't running out the rack for most of those 40 chances,
that means either our kicking was poor, or we responded unwisely to pushout.
Someone had observed we took flyers too often when a safe would be wiser,
maybe that explains it.

 

[KoolKat9Lives]

I saw a reference that Mika tweeted that on one break, SVB broke the gentleman's agreement by cutting one break.

I liked that it wasn't a breaking competition, but it became a safety competition, though the European players, as shown in the stats, were clearly enough better finishers that they would have dominated even if they'd had less of the rolls on the safety side of play.

Just a few hours ago, a few of this discussed this. Pinky and I were taliking with Michaela and her husband. An English chap, perhaps embidded as the rest, butts into the conversation. His opening line was something like "WTF Michaela, how could you not call BS on that SVB break?"

Oh man, she went off. "I'm a professional, I know wtf is going on. Shane was breaking great, he's a freaking monster breaker, I was so impressed. Who the f are you to insinuate I made a bad call?"

Suffice it say, Michaela was ticked, and damn... She can hold her own. Those lips with a lil clear cute mole above her lip on the right side were livid. She does know her sh1t and her perspective on pool - well... She knows more than 99.99% here do.

(tidbit - BB playoffs are on per her, Feb 2 IIRC at 1:15 am. FWIW - I look into the future so I have espn...)

 

[AtLarge]

... My question on the stats is how many lags did the US win and how many did they not even get it to the first diamond off the end rail? ...

Europe won 9 lags, the USA won 4 (3 of which were on Day 1). I don't remember (and didn't keep track of) how many lags didn't reach the first diamond off the head rail.

Next question is how many matches went hill hill and in those matches how many were won by the breaker. I think at least once the 9 was made on the break to win but I could be wrong. ...

4 matches went hill/hill, with the breaker's side winning 2 and losing 2. And you are correct that one of those wins was by making the 9 on the break (Mika def. Shane).

 

[AtLarge]

I hated the 3 balls past the headstring rule because sometimes you could clearly see the player was trying to hit them hard and just dumb luck stopped 3 balls from passing the headstring. ...

With today's technology, why not just set a minimum break speed?

 

[AtLarge]

I hit them very soft. ...

Thanks for the explanation; don't need to see the video.

 

[KoolKat9Lives]

With today's technology, why not just set a minimum break speed?

I can't immediately think of a downside to the 9 on the foot, a minimum break speed and no 9 on the snap.

Afterwhich, we can solve world piece for pool.

 

[KoolKat9Lives]

AtLarge, forgive me if I missed it, but what were the break fouls stats? Your OP stats included two elements on this aspect, not fouls alone. TY for always putting in your time and sharing. :thumbup:

 

[pt109]

AtLarge, forgive me if I missed it, but what were the break fouls stats? Your OP stats included two elements on this aspect, not fouls alone. TY for always putting in your time and sharing. :thumbup:

Read the original post.

 

[elvicash]

AtLarge thanks again for posting up some great stats, your hard work is much appreciated.

 

[AtLarge]

Amazing how small rule changes completely alter the game.
Actually it isn't even a rules change, it was a "gentleman's agreement".

By agreeing to break with randomness instead of controlled skill, the rate of balls made on the break dropped from about 60-65% (comparing to, say, US Open stats) to 35%. ...

At the 2012 Mosconi Cup a ball was made on the break (without fouling) 74% of the time. This year it was 33%. The balls were racked in the same place both years, but there was no break box last year (and they had the illegal-break rule last year).

The 1-ball went in the side regularly last year. From the small box used this year, I doubt that would have happened with a forceful cut break. So it wasn't just the "gentleman's agreement" that affected the results, it was the small break box.

 

[KoolKat9Lives]

Read the original post.

I did pt. As I asked before, I'll ask again, did I miss something in trying to determine what were solely the foul stats on the break?

The U.S. broke 47 times, with the following results[/U]:
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 8 (17%)
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 8 (17%)
• Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 7 (15%)
• Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 24 (51%)

Europe broke 49 times, with the following results:
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and won the game -- 10 (20%)
• Made at least one ball (and did not foul) and lost the game -- 7 (14%)
• Broke dry or fouled but won the game -- 16 (33%)
• Broke dry or fouled and lost the game -- 16 (33%)

 

[AtLarge]

AtLarge, forgive me if I missed it, but what were the break fouls stats? Your OP stats included two elements on this aspect, not fouls alone. TY for always putting in your time and sharing. :thumbup:

The USA fouled on the break 7 times and won just 1 of those games.

Europe fouled on the break 3 times and won 2 of them.

So, in total, Europe won 8 of the 10 games in which the breaker scratched.

 

[AtLarge]

The USA fouled 7 times on 61 breaks -- 11%.

Europe fouled 3 times on 64 breaks -- 5%.

 

[KoolKat9Lives]

The USA fouled on the break 7 times and won just 1 of those games.

Europe fouled on the break 3 times and won 2 of them.

So, in total, Europe won 8 of the 10 games in which the breaker scratched.

Thanks AtLarge. If I missed that in your OP, I apologize for making you work overtime. :grin-square:

It was my impression sitting ringside that there that the break fouls put a significant hurt upon the US. And your trusted stats indicate as much.

 

[KoolKat9Lives]

At the 2012 Mosconi Cup a ball was made on the break (without fouling) 74% of the time. This year it was 33%. The balls were racked in the same place both years, but there was no break box last year (and they had the illegal-break rule last year).

The 1-ball went in the side regularly last year. From the small box used this year, I doubt that would have happened with a forceful cut break. So it wasn't just the "gentleman's agreement" that affected the results, it was the small break box.

That's a staggering stat. I hope people that want to reduce the break factor in tournies or where ever, take note.

BTW, I think AtLarge has more Excel files than Bill Gates.

 

[AtLarge]

Here are some break stats for each player.

Made a ball on the break (without fouling):

Archer -- 3 of 9 (33%)​

Strickland -- 2 of 13 (15%)​

Morris -- 4 of 14 (29%)​

Van Boening -- 8 of 12 (67%)​

Hatch -- 4 of 13 (31%)​

USA Total -- 21 of 61 (34%)​

​

Souquet -- 2 of 12 (17%)​

Immonen -- 7 of 16 (44%)​

Feijen -- 4 of 10 (40%)​

Appleton -- 4 of 13 (31%)​

Boyes -- 3 of 13 (23%)​

Europe Total -- 20 of 64 (31%)​

​

USA + Europe Total -- 41 of 125 (33%)​

Breaker's side won the game:

Archer -- 1 of 9 (11%)​

Strickland -- 5 of 13 (38%)​

Morris -- 5 of 14 (36%)​

Van Boening -- 5 of 12 (42%)​

Hatch -- 4 of 13 (31%)​

USA Total -- 20 of 61 (33%)​

​

Souquet -- 7 of 12 (58%)​

Immonen -- 8 of 16 (50%)​

Feijen -- 8 of 10 (80%)​

Appleton -- 5 of 13 (38%)​

Boyes -- 7 of 13 (54%)​

Europe Total -- 35 of 64 (55%)​

​

USA + Europe Total -- 55 of 125 (44%)​

 

[AtLarge]

In the last post, note how much better Shane did than everyone else in making a ball on the break. I don't ever recall seeing him try to hit the balls as hard as he did in these matches. His normal power break is more controlled than what he did in the Cup. But he got results!

 

[KoolKat9Lives]

Here are some break stats for each player.

Made a ball on the break (without fouling):

Archer -- 3 of 9 (33%)
Strickland -- 2 of 13 (15%)
Morris -- 4 of 14 (29%)
Van Boening -- 8 of 12 (67%)
Hatch -- 4 of 13 (31%)
USA Total -- 21 of 61 (34%)

Souquet -- 2 of 12 (17%)
Immonen -- 7 of 16 (44%)
Feijen -- 4 of 10 (40%)
Appleton -- 4 of 13 (31%)
Boyes -- 3 of 13 (23%)
Europe Total -- 20 of 64 (31%)

USA + Europe Total -- 41 of 125 (33%)

Breaker's side won the game:

Archer -- 1 of 9 (11%)
Strickland -- 5 of 13 (38%)
Morris -- 5 of 14 (36%)
Van Boening -- 5 of 12 (42%)
Hatch -- 4 of 13 (31%)
USA Total -- 20 of 61 (33%)

Souquet -- 7 of 12 (58%)
Immonen -- 8 of 16 (50%)
Feijen -- 8 of 10 (80%)
Appleton -- 5 of 13 (38%)
Boyes -- 7 of 13 (54%)
Europe Total -- 35 of 64 (55%)

USA + Europe Total -- 55 of 125 (44%)

And if you knew then what you know now (SVB or Neils not withstanding), would you bang the lag 3 rails? Dang tootin'!

(Now we know)