Break Stats -- 2024 U.S. Open 8-Ball Championship, March 2024

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2024 U.S. Open 8-Ball Championship played March 6-8, 2024 at Griff's Bar & Billiards in Las Vegas, Nevada. Streaming was free on YouTube (only on the GriffsTV channel for the Finals). The commentators were Collins Newey (the streamer) and Molina Mike, with assistance on several matches from entrants and a sponsor. Wiktor Zielinski won the event, defeating Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz in the final match.

The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Diamond 9-foot table (4¼" corner pockets);​
- Blue Simonis cloth;​
- Aramith Tournament balls, including a blue-dots cue ball;​
- Taom MaxRack racking template;​
- alternate breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- table open after the break;​
- ball in hand anywhere on the table after a foul on the break;​
- an 8-ball made on the break is spotted (it may have been breaker's choice to spot the 8-ball and continue shooting or to re-break);​
- call shots;​
- cue-ball fouls only;​
- no shot clock; and​
- lag for opening break.​

This was a 50-player, double-elimination event, with races to 8 except for a single race to 11 in the finals. Twelve of the players had FargoRates in the 800s and 14 more were above 750.

These stats are for 12 matches, all of which were streamed on the feature table. These 12 matches (166 games) were 12% of the total of 98 matches played in the event. The 12 matches are as follows, shown in the order in which they were played. They total 166 games, but 3 games in Match 6 below were not shown in full when the camera was pointed at another match, so the stats are for 163 games.

Wednesday, March 6
1. Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz defeated Sergio Rivas 8-7​
2. Albin Ouschan d. Shane Van Boening 8-7​

Thurs., March 7
3. Joshua Filler d. Max Lechner 8-4​
4. Sanchez-Ruiz d. Bader Alawadhi 8-5​
5. Lee Vann Corteza d. Tony Chohan 8-2​
6. Daniel Maciol d. Skyler Woodward 8-5​

Fri., March 8
7. Roland Garcia d. Carlo Biado 8-6​
8. Sanchez-Ruiz d. Filler 8-5​
9. Sanchez-Ruiz d. Wiktor Zielinski 8-7 (hotseat match)​
10. Filler d. Corteza 8-7​
11. Zielinski d. Filler 8-3 (Semifinal)​
12. Zielinski d. Sanchez-Ruiz 11-9 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 81% (67 of 83)​
Match losers -- 75% (60 of 80)​
Total -- 78% (127 of 163)
Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 71% (59 of 83)​
Match losers -- 53% (42 of 80)​
Total -- 62% (101 of 163)
Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 58% (48 of 83)​
Match losers -- 46% (37 of 80)​
Total -- 52% (85 of 163)
Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 72% (48 of 67)​
Match losers -- 62% (37 of 60)​
Total -- 67% (85 of 127)

Here's a breakdown of the 163 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 97 (60% of the 163 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 30 (18%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 1 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 6 (4%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 3 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 26 (16%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 62% (101 of 163) of all games,​
He won 76% (97 of 127) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 11% (4 of 36) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 85 break-and-run games represented 52% of all 163 games, 84% of the 101 games won by the breaker, and 67% of the 127 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 85 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 5-pack (by Sanchez-Ruiz), 6 alternate-break 3-packs (2 by Sanchez-Ruiz, 2 by Zielinski, 1 by Filler, and 1 by Van Boening), 18 alternate-break 2-packs, and 26 singles.

8-balls on the break -- 1 (0.6% of all 163 breaks). It was spotted.
 
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Miscellany from the data for the 2024 U.S.Open 8-Ball Championship
[This relates only to the 12 matches I tracked, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once, by Woodward (a B&R). The distribution of the number of balls made on successful breaks was 40% 1 ball, 46% 2 balls, and 14% 3 or 4 balls.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.4 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.7.

• Number of innings:
85% (139 of 163) of the games ended in one inning – 85 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 54 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
11% (18 of 163) of the games ended in the second inning.​
4% (6 of 163) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The game with the most visits to the table ended on the breaker's 7th visit.​

• 71% (115 of 163) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 67% (85 of 127)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 86% (6 of 7)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 83% (24 of 29)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 76% of the time (124 of 163)​
- Won the game in a later inning 7% of the time (11 of 163)​
- Lost the game 17% of the time (28 of 163)​

• The match losers won an average of 5.3 games in the 11 races to 8. Four matches went to hill/hill; the fewest games won in a match was 2.

• The race to 8 that was both longest in elapsed time, at about 127 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 8.4, was Sanchez-Ruiz d. Rivas 8-7. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The shortest match in elapsed time, at about 65 minutes, was Zielinski d. Filler 8-3. The match that was lowest in average minutes per game, at 5.3, was Sanchez-Ruiz d. Alawadhi 8-5.

• The average elapsed time for the 11 races to 8 was 79 minutes. The average minutes per game for all 12 matches was 5.9.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 23.3 games, other fouls 1 for every 27.2 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 3.4 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 10% of all games and in about 21% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
clear case for alternate breaks. and probably in all types of games. then at least the best run out player wins.

still, best breaker becomes overwhelming favorite to win.
so why not just have a breaking contest in pool and not waste all the time on playing. that is getting close to what pool has become.
 
clear case for alternate breaks. and probably in all types of games. then at least the best run out player wins.

still, best breaker becomes overwhelming favorite to win.
so why not just have a breaking contest in pool and not waste all the time on playing. that is getting close to what pool has become.

a few tweaks would make it more exciting, take what you make and inverse break box. but yea you still better not break dry or scratch on the break
 
Run out or lose.
a few tweaks would make it more exciting, take what you make and inverse break box. but yea you still better not break dry or scratch on the break
That figure of 85% of the games ending in one inning is among the highest I have posted. A few events on 7-foot tables have exceeded it by a bit, as did one notable 8-Ball event on a 9-footer -- the 2014 CSI 8-Ball Invitational Championship, in which 88% of the tracked games ended in one inning.

Appleton's World Pool Series did take steps to toughen 8-Ball. The one-inning games ranged from 52% to 73% in his five 8-Ball events. He tweaked things throughout the series, with some people feeling he went too far in that direction for one of the events (37% successful breaks and 16% B&Rs on the streamed matches). But I wish he had been able to continue his quest to provide 8-Ball events at a level that was just right for top pros; it was interesting.
 
• Number of innings:
85% (139 of 163) of the games ended in one inning – 85 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 54 games on the non-breaker's first inning.
11% (18 of 163) of the games ended in the second inning.​
4% (6 of 163) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The game with the most visits to the table ended on the breaker's 7th visit.​

71% (115 of 163) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 67% (85 of 127)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 86% (6 of 7)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 83% (24 of 29)​
The bolded numbers don't make sense to me. Why are these not the same?
 
You are missing the games ending in first inning of non-breaker after the breaker made balls after the break, but did not run out
 
You are missing the games ending in first inning of non-breaker after the breaker made balls after the break, but did not run out
As to fuggles question, you are correct, except that the breaker may not have made any more balls after the break, but he took at least one shot (a foul, a miss, a safe).
 
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