Break Stats -- 2025 Oneida WPA Women's World 8-Ball Championship, July 2025

[AtLarge]

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2025 Oneida WPA Women's World 8-Ball Championship played July 2-6, 2025 at the Oneida Casino Hotel in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Streaming was free on YouTube. Jasmin Ouschan won the event, defeating Chezka Centeno in the final match.

The main commentators for the matches I tracked were Steve Wyatt, Sean Denny, and Lonnie Fox-Raymond. Others, on fewer matches, were Mika Immonen, Ashley Benoit, and Caroline Pao.

The conditions for the streamed matches included:

• Olhausen Tournament Pro 9-foot table with 4½" corner pockets;​

• Simonis cloth (blue);​

• Aramith Tournament Pro-Cup balls, with a black-dots cue ball;​

• referee racks using a TAOM MaxRack template rack;​

• alternate breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​

• table open after the break;​

• ball in hand behind the head string after a foul on the break;​

• call shots;​

• foul on all balls;​

• 40-second shot clock (60 seconds after the break) with one 40-second extension allowed per player per game (2 extensions allowed per player in a hill/hill game); and​

• lag for opening break.​

This was a 64-player event, with double elimination (Stage 1) down to 16 players (8 on the winners' side and 8 on the one-loss side), and then single elimination (Stage 2) to the end. These stats are for 13 matches -- all 11 matches streamed on feature Tables 1 and 2 in the single-elimination stage on Saturday and Sunday plus the 2 matches streamed on Table 1 in the winners' and losers' rounds on Friday to qualify for Stage 2. These 13 matches (161 games) were 11% of the total of 119 matches played in the event, including 73% (11 of 15) of the matches played in the single-elimination stage of the event. The 13 matches are as follows:

[Note: The stream was down (casino power outage) for most of Games 3, 4, and 5 in the first semifinal match. But I included those 3 games in the stats based on comments about those games made by the commentators after the outage.]​

Fri., July 4

1. Seo Seoa defeated Pia Filler 7-3 (Winner Qualification Round)​

2. Kristina Zlateva d. April Larson 7-6 (Loser Qualification Round)​

Sat., July 5

3. Kristina Tkach d. Filler 8-1(Last 16)​

4. Chezka Centeno d. Chihiro Kawahara 8-4 (Last 16)​

5. Meng Hsai Hung d. Kelly Fisher 8-4 (Last 16)​

6. Jasmin Ouschan d. Samia Konishi 8-2 (Last 16)​

7. Centeno d. Tzu Chien Wei 8-7 (Quarterfinal)​

8. Margarita Fefilova-Styer d. Tkach 8-4 (Quarterfinal)​

9. Ouschan d. Zlateva 8-3 (Quarterfinal)​

10. Chia Hua Chen d. Hung 8-6 (Quarterfinal)​

Sun., July 6

11. Centeno d. Fefilova-Styer 8-6 (Semifinal)​

12. Ouschan d. Chen 8-4 (Semifinal)​

13. Ouschan d. Centeno 9-8 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):​

Match winners -- 74% (59 of 80)​

Match losers -- 57% (46 of 81)​

Total -- 65% (105 of 161)​

​

Breaker won the game:​

Match winners -- 64% (51 of 80)​

Match losers -- 36% (29 of 81)​

Total -- 50% (80 of 161)​

​

Break-and-run games on all breaks:​

Match winners -- 46% (37 of 80)​

Match losers -- 22% (18 of 81)​

Total -- 34% (55 of 161)​

​

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):​

Match winners -- 63% (37 of 59)​

Match losers -- 39% (18 of 46)​

Total -- 52% (55 of 105)​

Here's a breakdown of the 161 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​

Breaker won the game: 65 (40% of the 161 games)​

Breaker lost the game: 40 (25%)​

​

Breaker fouled on the break:​

Breaker won the game: 1 (1%)​

Breaker lost the game: 3 (2%)​

​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​

Breaker won the game: 14 (9%)​

Breaker lost the game: 38 (24%)​

​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 50% (80 of 161) of all games,​

She won 62% (65 of 105) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​

She won 27% (15 of 56) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 55 break-and-run games represented 34% of all 161 games, 69% of the 80 games won by the breaker, and 52% of the 105 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many she ran on her own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 55 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 4-pack (by Centeno), 2 alternate-break 3-packs (one each by Tkach and Ouschan), 12 alternate-break 2-packs, and 21 singles.

8-balls on the break -- None.

 

[AtLarge]

Miscellany from the data for the 2025 Women's World 8-Ball Championship
[This relates only to the 13 matches I tracked, not to all matches in the event.]

■ The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once, by Centeno (a game loss). Three balls were made on the break 6 times -- 3 times by Fefilova-Styer (2 B&Rs and 1 game loss), and once each by Tkach (B&R), Chen (B&R), and Ouschan (game loss).

■ The average number of balls made on the break was 1.0 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5, and the distribution was 62% 1 ball, 31% 2 balls, and 7% 3 or 4 balls.

■ Number of innings:

• 71% (115 of 161) of the games ended in one inning – 55 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 60 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​

• 17% (27 of 161) of the games ended in the second inning.​

• 12% (19 of 161) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The 2 games with the most visits to the table ended on the non-breaker's 6th visit.​

■ 54% (87 of 161) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:

• By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 52% (55 of 105)​

• By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 50% (2 of 4)​

• By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 58% (30 of 52)​

■ The player who made the first ball after the break:

• Won the game in that same inning 58% of the time (93 of 161)​

• Won the game in a later inning 10% of the time (16 of 161)​

• Lost the game 32% of the time (52 of 161)​

■ The loser won an average of 4.1 games in the 10 races to 8 (excludes the 2 races to 7 and the final). Of all 13 matches, 3 went to hill/hill; the most lopsided match was Tkach's 8-1 win over Filler.

■ The average elapsed time for the 10 races to 8 was was about 95 minutes. The average minutes per game for all 13 matches was 7.7. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts. [I estimated the elapsed time for the first semifinal match, deducting part of the time the stream was down with play halted.]

■ The race to 8 that was longest in elapsed time, at about 131 minutes, was Chen d. Hung 8-6. Of all 13 matches, the one highest in average minutes per game, at 10.3, was Ouschan d. Konishi 8-2.

■ The race to 8 that was shortest in elapsed time, at about 78 minutes, was Tkach d. Filler 8-1. Of all 13 matches, the two lowest in average minutes per game, at about 6.0, were Centeno d. Fefilova-Styer 8-6 and Ouschan d. Centeno 9-8.

■ Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 40.3 games (!), other fouls 1 for every 7.7 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.8 games.

■ One or more safeties were played in about 18% of all games and in 27% of games that were not B&Rs.

 

[AtLarge]

Here's a short version of how the 9-8 Ouschan/Centeno final match went, game by game.

O = Ouschan; C = Centeno

1. O B&R (1-0)​

2. C wet, ran 5 solids and hooked herself, played safe; O made 1 stripe but got bad position, played safe; C ran out (1-1)​

3. O dry; C ran out (1-2)​

4. C dry; O ran out (2-2)​

5. O B&R (3-2)​

6. C dry; O ran out (4-2)​

7. O dry; C ran out (4-3)​

8. C wet, ran 6 solids but got bad position, played a lousy safe; O ran out (5-3)​

9. O B&R (6-3)​

10. C B&R (6-4)​

11. O wet, ran 4 stripes then missed the 12-ball; C ran out (6-5)​

12. C B&R (6-6)​

13. O B&R (7-6)​

14. C wet, ran 6 solids but got bad position, missed the 2-ball; O ran out (8-6)​

15. O dry; C ran out (8-7)​

16. C B&R (8-8)​

17. O B&R (9-8)​

In 13 games -- the player at the table after the break ran out (8 B&Rs and 5 runouts by the non-breaker after all 5 dry breaks)
In 3 games -- the break was wet, but the breaker made a mistake and the non-breaker ran out
In 1 game -- the break was wet, but the breaker made a mistake; the non-breaker then made a mistake and the breaker ran out

So, 16 1-inning games and 1 2-inning game

 

[AtLarge]

The Men vs. The Women

How do the stats compare for the men and women in the most recent 8-Ball World Championship for each (Sept. 2024 for the men)? For both events, the matches I tracked were all streamed on the feature tables (1 and 2) with commentary. The number of games was 204 for the men (in 14 matches) and 161 games for the women (in 13 matches). Perhaps the main differences between the two events in the rules and equipment were:

- Winner breaks for the men; alternate breaks for the women​

- Predator table with 4¼" corners and Predator cloth for the men, Olhausen table with 4½" corners and Simonis cloth for the women​

- Predator Aerorack triangle rack for the men, TAOM MaxRack template for the women​

- 30-second shot clock for the men, 40 seconds for the women​

These stats are for the men first, then the women.

• Successful breaks -- 53%, 65%​

• Breaker won game -- 58%, 50%​

• B&R games on all breaks -- 37%, 34%​

• B&R games on successful breaks -- 69%, 52%​

• Games ending in 1 inning -- 73%, 71%​

• Games going beyond the 2nd inning -- 8%, 12%​

• Runouts by the player at the table following the break -- 63%, 54%​

• Games won by first player to make a ball after the break -- 76%, 68%​

• Average number of balls on all breaks -- 0.8, 1.0​

• Average number of balls on successful breaks -- 1.5, 1.5​

• Games per missed shot (approx.) -- 2.3, 1.8​

• Games per foul -- 8.5, 6.4​

• Games with one or more safeties, counting all games -- 10%, 18%​

• Games with one of more safeties, counting only games that were not B&Rs -- 16%, 27%​

• Matches won by winner of lag -- 64%, 54%​

• Minutes per game -- 6.4, 7.7​

 

[iusedtoberich]

Was the Predator event using Predator triangle rack, and the Olhausen event was using a template rack? If so, I think that would explain the better breaking by the women.

 

[AtLarge]

Was the Predator event using Predator triangle rack, and the Olhausen event was using a template rack? If so, I think that would explain the better breaking by the women.

Yes, good point. The men's event was using the Predator Aerorack triangle rack, whereas the template might well have had a beneficial effect for the women. I neglected to include that on the list of differences but have edited it in now. Thanks.

 

[skogstokig]

Yes, good point. The men's event was using the Predator Aerorack triangle rack, whereas the template might well have had a beneficial effect for the women. I neglected to include that on the list of differences but have edited it in now. Thanks.

that's a big difference because that rack is wonky.. i believe the predator table at the men's event has had 4.25" pockets too, shelf slightly deeper

either way the ladies played well, i'm not negating that