Break Stats -- Derby City 10-Foot (Bigfoot) 10-Ball, January 2023

AtLarge

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Here are some break statistics from the 2023 Derby City Classic's Diamond Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge played January 20-23, 2023 at the Caesars Southern Indiana Hotel & Casino in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats. This was an invitational 16-man, single-elimination event won by Shane Van Boening. The primary commentators were Mark Wilson and Jeremy Jones. The referee was Ricky Bryant; the master of ceremonies was Derrick Keith.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 10-foot table with 4 1/8" corner pockets and 4¾" side pockets;​
- Simonis 860 or 860 HR cloth;​
- Aramith Tournament balls;​
- Accu-Rack Pro10 racking template;​
- rack your own (1-ball on the spot, 2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners) and alternate breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- jump cues not allowed and jumping with break cues not allowed;​
- foul on all balls;​
- all slop counts (except spot any 10-ball made on the break);​
- 30-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack; and​
- lag for opening break.​

The event's 15 matches (256 games), all streamed from the same table, were as follows (shown in the order in which they were played). The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream. TPAs were not provided for Match 10 because of technical problems.

Fri., Jan. 20 (Round 1)
1. Shane Van Boening (.863) defeated Max Eberle (.764) 11-4​
2. Jayson Shaw (.910) d. Skyler Woodward (.768) 11-4​
3. Roberto Gomez (.853) d. Alex Pagulayan (.793) 11-8​
4. Fedor Gorst (.939 - best of the event) d. Jeffrey De Luna (.694) 11-1​

Sat., Jan. 21 (Round 1, continued)
5. Mieszko Fortunski (.883) d. Mika Immonen (.835) 11-8​
6. Lee Vann Corteza (.907) d. Roland Garcia (.746) 11-2​
7. Konrad Juszczyszyn (.851) d. John Morra (.828) 11-9​
8. Joshua Filler (.857) d. Jesus Atencio (.667) 11-5​

Sun., Jan. 22 (Round 2)
9. Van Boening (.871) d. Shaw (.773) 11-8​
10. Gomez d. Gorst 11-9​
11. Corteza (.902) d. Fortunski (.856) 11-10​
12. Juszczyszyn (.897) d. Filler (.929) 11-9​

Mon., Jan. 23 (Rounds 3 and 4 -- semifinals and finals)
13. Van Boening (.930) d. Gomez (.885) 11-3​
14. Juszczyszyn (.938) d. Corteza (.684) 11-4​
15. Van Boening (.849 ) d. Juszczyszyn (.730 ) 11-7​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 70% (93 of 132)​
Match losers -- 61% (76 of 124)​
Total -- 66% (169 of 256)

Breaker won the game:
Match winners -- 70% (93 of 132)​
Match losers -- 42% (52 of 124)​
Total -- 57% (145 of 256)

Break-and-run games on all breaks:
Match winners -- 30% (39 of 132)​
Match losers -- 13% (16 of 124)​
Total -- 21% (55 of 256)

Break-and-run games on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Match winners -- 42% (39 of 93)​
Match losers -- 21% (16 of 76)​
Total -- 33% (55 of 169)

Here's a breakdown of the 256 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 103 (40% of the 256 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 66 (26%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 7 (3%)​
Breaker lost the game: 10 (4%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 35 (14%)​
Breaker lost the game: 35 (14%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 57% (145 of 256) of all games,​
He won 61% (103 of 169) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 48% (42 of 87) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 55 break-and-run games represented 21% of all 256 games, 38% of the 145 games won by the breaker, and 33% of the 169 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 55 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 4-pack (by Van Boening), 5 alternate-break 2-packs (1 each by Gorst, Juszczyszyn, and Van Boening, and 2 by Gomez), and 41 singles.

10-balls on the break -- No 10-balls were made on the break.
 

AtLarge

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Miscellany from the data for the 2023 DCC Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge:

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once, by Gomez (a B&R game).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.1 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5 and the distribution was 58% 1 ball, 34% 2 balls, 8% 3 balls, and 1% 4 balls.

• Number of innings:
42% (107 of 256) of the games ended in one inning – 55 games on the breaker's first inning (B&Rs) and 52 games on the non-breaker's first inning.​
23% (59 of 256) of the games ended in the second inning.​
35% (90 of 256) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table. The game with the most innings ended on the non-breaker's 8th visit to the table.​

• 39% (73 of 265) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 33% (55 of 169)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 53% (9 of 17)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 13% (9 of 70)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 49% of the time (125 of 253)​
- Won the game in a later inning 17% of the time (42 of 253)​
- Lost the game 34% of the time (86 of 253)​
[Note -- total games used here are 253 rather than 256 because stream outages prevented me from seeing who made the first ball after the break in 3 games.]​

• The match loser won an average of 6.1 games in these races to 11. The closest matches were 1 that went to hill/hill and three that ended at 11-9; the fewest games won in a match was 1, once.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at about 150 minutes, was Gomez d. Gorst 11-9. The match highest in average minutes per game, at 8.2, was Gorst d. De Luna 11-1. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was both shortest in elapsed time, at 76 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 5.1, was Juszczyszyn d. Corteza 11-4.

• The average elapsed time for these 15 races to 11 was 105 minutes, averaging 6.1 minutes per game.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 15.1 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.1 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.4 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 48% of all games and in 61% of games that were not B&Rs.
 

AtLarge

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Mean of Accu-Stats match TPAs:

■ for the 15 match winners (14 for 2023)
2023 -- .889​
2022 -- .903​
2020 -- .891​
2019 -- .902​
2018 -- .870​
2017 -- .869​
2016 -- .878​
7-year total -- .886​

■ for the 15 match losers (14 for 2023)
2023 -- .782​
2022 -- .842​
2020 -- .817​
2019 -- .838​
2018 -- .833​
2017 -- .795​
2016 -- .822​
7-year total -- .818​

■ Total (all 30 TPAs except 28 for 2023)
2023 -- .836​
2022 -- .872​
2020 -- .854​
2019 -- .870​
2018 -- .852​
2017 -- .832​
2016 -- .850​
7-year total -- .852​

[These mean values are likely to be a little different from aggregate TPAs calculated for each of these 3 groups.]
 
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AtLarge

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TPAs in the 900s

With 15 matches each year in this event, there are 30 Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (28 posted for 2023). For the last 9 events (2014-2023) 51 of the 268 TPAs (19%) have been in the 900s:

2014 -- 1 [SVB]

2015 -- 3 [Orcollo and SVB(2)]

2016 -- 4 [ Bustamante, SVB, Shaw (2)]

2017 -- 5 [Hohmann, Kazakis, Shaw (3)]

2018 -- 4 [ Gomez, Gorst, Immonen (2)]

2019 -- 9 [Gorst, Orcollo, Shaw, SVB, Filler (2), Chang (3)]

2020 -- 9 [Corteza, Filler (2), Pagulayan (2), Shaw (2), SVB (2)]

2022 -- 9 [Alcaide, Kazakis, Shaw, Filler (2), Gorst (4)]

2023 -- 7 [Filler, Gorst, Juszczyszyn, Shaw, SVB, Corteza (2)]
 

AtLarge

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TPAs in a match totaling 1.800 or higher

For all 135 of the Bigfoot matches for 2014 through 2023, only 13 times (10%) has the total of the 2 players' TPAs been 1.800 or higher:

2018
Gomez d. Immonen 11-10, .893 + .931 = 1.824​

2019
Chang d. Van Boening 11-9, .933 + .876 = 1.809​
Filler d. Orcollo 11-8, .956 + .915 = 1.871 (highest)
Chang d. Filler 11-9, .922 + .878 = 1.800​

2020
Shaw d. Woodward 11-3, .939 + .870 = 1.809​
Pagulayan d. Van Boening 11-9, .937 + .910 = 1.847​
Corteza d. Filler 11-9, .915 + .913 = 1.828​

2022
Gorst d. Sanchez-Ruiz 11-6, .949 + .853 = 1.802​
Filler d. Kazakis 11-6, .943 + .909 = 1.852​
Alcaide d. Pagulayan 11-9, .924 + .891 = 1.815​
Gorst d. Shaw 11-8, .937 + .869 = 1.806​

2023
Juszczyszyn d. Filler 11-9, .897 + .929 = 1.826​
Van Boening d. Gomez 11-3, .930 + .885 = 1.815​

And in only 4 of those 13 matches did both players shoot in the 900s.
 

AtLarge

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Even though the numbers are small, here are the break-and-run results for each of this year's players.

First-Round Losers (1 match each)
Eberle -- 0 B&Rs out of 7 breaks = 0%​
Woodward -- 2 of 7 = 29%​
Pagulayan -- 0 of 9 = 0%​
De Luna -- 0 of 6 = 0%​
Immonen -- 1 of 9 = 11%​
Garcia -- 1 of 6 = 17%​
Morra -- 1 of 10 = 10%​
Atencio -- 1 of 8 = 13%​
Total -- 6 of 62 = 10%​

Second-Round Losers (2 matches each)
Shaw -- 2 of 17 = 12%​
Gorst -- 5 of 16 = 31%​
Fortunski -- 4 of 20 = 20%​
Filler -- 4 of 18 = 22%​
Total -- 15 of 71 = 21%​

Third-Round Losers (3 matches each)
Gomez -- 6 of 27 = 22%​
Corteza -- 6 of 25 = 24%​
Total -- 12 of 52 = 23%​

Finalists (4 matches each)
Juszczyszyn -- 7 of 37 = 19%​
Van Boening -- 15 of 34 = 44%​
Total -- 22 of 71 = 31%​

Total -- 55 of 256 = 21%

As mentioned in post #1, the 55 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 4-pack (by Van Boening), 5 alternate-break 2-packs, and 41 singles.
 

BasementDweller

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Very nice. Outside of 10 ball, one stat I would love to see is pocketing percentages in some of the bank pool matches. I don't even love that game, but watching Fedor has left me scratching my head. I would guess he's over 70% for attempted banks in the few matches I watched.
 

Dan_B

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The opening post here.
"all slop counts (except spot any 10-ball made on the break)"
like in nine ball?
or, the one waiting for a miss/foul makes the call that slop shot shooter gets to shoot again?
I'm in the cheap seats, didn't see how that was being played.

and,
just a minor curiosity,
there's just one 10ball per rack?
 

AtLarge

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The opening post here.
"all slop counts (except spot any 10-ball made on the break)"
like in nine ball?
or, the one waiting for a miss/foul makes the call that slop shot shooter gets to shoot again?
I'm in the cheap seats, didn't see how that was being played.

and,
just a minor curiosity,
there's just one 10ball per rack?
Yes, this 10-Ball event is played with 9-Ball rules (except spot a 10-ball made on the break). No call shots.

edit -- and, yes, just one 10-ball per rack (except it would be spotted if made on the break, on a foul, or on a push out)
 
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skogstokig

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Very nice. Outside of 10 ball, one stat I would love to see is pocketing percentages in some of the bank pool matches. I don't even love that game, but watching Fedor has left me scratching my head. I would guess he's over 70% for attempted banks in the few matches I watched.

it's sick. playing alex now, up 1 game
 

Dan_B

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...as always, great stuff atlarge.

I'd need to think about the scenario - re-spot on a push-out-.
 

Vahmurka

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Juszczyszyn (.897) def. Filler (.929) 11-9

As soon as I looked at the result of this match I thought, I'd be curious to know how often such kind of an "upset" happened (not necessarily at Bigfoot events), where a player with less TPA won the match? Maybe let's make it a player with TPA still close to .900, to narrow the search field :)
 

jtompilot

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Where the other years played played with 4 1/2” corners? That’s some pretty height TPAs for 4 1/8 corners and super tight sides.
 

AtLarge

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Where the other years played played with 4 1/2” corners? That’s some pretty height TPAs for 4 1/8 corners and super tight sides.
Yes, 4½" corners for 2015 through 2022. They were said to be 4 7/16 in 2013 and 2014. And, yes, some good TPAs again this year, but note that the average TPA for the losers was the lowest of the last 7 events, despite including a .929 by Filler.
 

jay helfert

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Yes, this 10-Ball event is played with 9-Ball rules (except spot a 10-ball made on the break). No call shots.

edit -- and, yes, just one 10-ball per rack (except it would be spotted if made on the break, on a foul, or on a push out)
I wonder how many ten balls were made on the break. My over/under would be three.

What was the money payoff this year?
 

AtLarge

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I wonder how many ten balls were made on the break. My over/under would be three.

What was the money payoff this year?
Prize money -- It was the same this year as for all the other 16-player Bigfoot events: 1st $16,000, 2nd $8,000, 3rd/4th $4,000. It was a little different in the one year (2013) with 32 players (paid 8 instead of 4, with a little more for the top 4).

10-balls on the break -- I have watched all 15 matches each year beginning with 2014. For those 9 events (none in 2021), the number of 10-balls pocketed on the break numbered, in order, 6, 7, 3, 0, 4, 1, 1, 0, 0. A triangle rack was used in the first two of those events, and an Accu-Rack template since then.
 

JohnnyOzone

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Didn't get to watch any of the Bigfoot.. How in the world does Filler shoot a .929 and lose? Did he miss a couple 10 balls?
 
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