Break Stats -- World Pool Series, Molinari Players' Championship 8-Ball, January 2017

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Here are some 8-Ball stats from the first event of Darren Appleton's new World Pool Series -- the Molinari Players' Championship. It was played January 14-17 at Steinway Billiards in Queens, New York. Pay-per-view streaming was provided by AZBtv.

This was a 119-player single-elimination event, with races to 13 in the first 3 rounds, 15 in the next 3 rounds, and 16 in the finals If a match reached hill/hill, it was decided by a shootout (only one shootout occurred in the main-event streamed matches). The stats are for all 13 matches played on the main streaming table, and they represented 11% of the total of 118 matches played in the event. [Note -- these 13 matches were all from the main event, none from the second-chance event.]

The conditions for this event included:
- Brunswick Gold Crown 9-foot table with 4¼" corner pockets and Simonis 860 Tournament Blue cloth;​
- Super Aramith Pro-Cup TV balls with the measles cue ball;​
- breaker racks using the RYO triangle rack;​
- break from outside a 2-diamonds wide central box behind the head string;​
- break shot must contact the head ball first;​
- alternate breaks for Rounds 1-3 (Saturday and Sunday) and winner breaks thereafter;​
- take the group you make more of on the break (table open if breaker made same number of each group, or fouled, or broke dry);​
- ball in hand behind the line after a foul on the break;​
- making the 8-ball on the break is not a game win;​
- mixed-group combinations not allowed with an open table;​
- call shots;​
- foul on all balls, and 3-foul rule in effect;​
- jump cues allowed, but jumping is allowed only twice per player per game and only after the opponent's shot;​
- lag for opening break.​

The 13 matches (293 games) were as follows (shown in the order in which they were played).

Saturday, Jan. 14, 2017
Chris Melling defeated Vincent Facquet 13-8
Karl Boyes d. Sean Hoey 13-4
Imran Majid d. Jason Klatt 13-10
Vilmos Foldes d. Francisco Bustamante 13-11​

Sun., Jan. 15
Thorsten Hohmann d. Line Kjorsvik 13-3
Ruslan Chinakhov d. Zion Zvi 13-8
Billy Thorpe d. Michael Hill 13-11
Lee Vann Corteza d. Nick Ekonomopoulos 13-8​

Mon., Jan. 16
Johann Chua d. Jayson Shaw 15-11
Darren Appleton d. Dennis Orcollo 15-12 (Quarterfinal)​

Tues., Jan. 17
Chinakhov d.Chua 15-8 (Semifinal)
Corteza d. Appleton 14-14 plus a shootout won 4-2 by Corteza (Semifinal)
Chinakhov d. Corteza 16-6 (Finals)​
​
Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 53% of the time (155 of 293), won 48% of the games (141 of 293), and broke and ran 29% of the games (85 of 293).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 293 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 98 (33% of the 293 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 57 (19%)​
​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 8 (3%)​
Breaker lost the game: 10 (3%)​
​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 35 (12%)​
Breaker lost the game: 85 (29%)​
​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 48% (141 of 293) of all games,​
He won 63% (98 of 155) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​
He won 44% (8 of 18) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​
He won 29% (35 of 120) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​
He won 31% (43 of 138) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

Break-and-run games: The 85 break-and-run games represented 29% of all 293 games, 60% of the 141 games won by the breaker, and 55% of the 155 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

Thirty-five of the 85 break-and-run games occurred during the alternating-break rounds and consisted of 1 alternate-break 4-pack (by Majid), 2 alternate-break 3-packs (Foldes and Hohmann), 2 alternate-break 2-packs, and 21 singles. Fifty of the break-and-run games occurred during the winner-breaks rounds and consisted of 1 6-pack (Chinakhov), 1 5-pack (Corteza), 2 3-packs (Chua and Chinakhov), 7 2-packs, and 19 singles.

8-balls on the break:
The 8-ball was made on the break just once (0.3% of the 293 breaks), but it did not count as a win and was spotted.
 
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Miscellany from the 8-Ball data for the 2017 Molinari Players' Championship in the World Pool Series

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just once -- by Thorpe. He won that game but only after his opponent missed an easy 8-ball.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.8 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.4.

• 69% (201 of 293) of the games ended in one inning – 29% (85) won by the breaker (B&R) and 40% (116) won by the non-breaker. Sixty-four games (22% of 293) ended in the second inning, and 28 games (10% of 293) went beyond the second inning.

• 54% (159 of 293) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 55% (85 of 155)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 56% (10 of 18)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 53% (64 of 120)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 61% of the time (178 of 293)​
- Won the game in a later inning 9% of the time (26 of 293)​
- Lost the game 30% of the time (89 of 293)​

• The loser won an average of 7.9 games in the 8 races to 13 and 11.3 games in the 4 races to 15. Only one match went to hill/hill; the fewest games won in a match was 3.

• The average elapsed time was 155 minutes for the 8 races to 13 and 168 minutes for the 4 races to 15. The average minutes per game for all 13 matches was 7.0. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time (209 min.) and highest in average minutes per game (9.1 min./game) was Majid d. Klatt 13-10.

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time (122 min.) was Boyes d. Hoey 13-4. Two matches tied for lowest in average minutes per game (6.0 min./game) -- Chua d. Shaw 15-11 and Chinakhov d. Chua 15-8.

• Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 16 games, other fouls 1 for every 9½ games, and missed shots 1 for every 1.7 games.

• About 12% of the games involved one or more safeties.
 
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Fantastic post as usual. Thank you. The break rules definitely made it a challenging tournament for players to run out on. I find it especially cool that Chinahov ran the most racks in a row from the break (6) and snapped off the tournament. Lee Van Corteza ran 5 racks and took second. Well deserved!
 
Oh snap so Ruslan won? Sweet can't wait to see it cause i like watching him play and never seen him play 8 ball..... what was that, it was streamed by AL, i'll get a south west made before it's uploaded to anywhere. Oh well.
Sounds like this event went off well and people may be looking forward to the next round. Good for Darren, glad it was a success
 
weakfingers said:
Fantastic post as usual. Thank you. The break rules definitely made it a challenging tournament for players to run out on. I find it especially cool that Chinahov ran the most racks in a row from the break (6) and snapped off the tournament. Lee Van Corteza ran 5 racks and took second. Well deserved!
Click to expand...

Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz apparently ran an 8-pack in the second-chance event. I think it was in the quarterfinals against Mike Dechaine. That match was not streamed, at least not by AZBtv. Sanchez-Ruiz went on to win that event.
 
AtLarge

How would you say these stats compare to other pro 8 ball events that maybe used more conventional break rules?
 
Thanks for all the efforts of compiling all the stats.

Interesting that the non-breaker won 52% of the games. I'm guessing the smaller pockets than procuts and make what you take had a big effect on that. And breaking outside the box.

Still some big packages by Ruslan and LeeVan.

BNR rates on diamonds 4.5" with normal break rules is 35%+ for elite pros.
 
gxman said:
Thanks for all the efforts of compiling all the stats.

Interesting that the non-breaker won 52% of the games. I'm guessing the smaller pockets than procuts and make what you take had a big effect on that. And breaking outside the box.

Still some big packages by Ruslan and LeeVan.

BNR rates on diamonds 4.5" with normal break rules is 35%+ for elite pros.
Click to expand...

AtLarge would certainly know better than I, but I think the IPT had similar statistics in terms of the non-breaker winning the higher percentage of overall games. I could be wrong about that.

I'll be interested to read AtLarge's post later today comparing this to other 8 ball tournaments. My personal analysis is that I like the outcome of these particular rules. The break is an advantage that can be leveraged, but it's no overwhelmingly important since break and runs aren't such a sure thing.
 
Amazing info as always

:thumbup:
AtLarge said:
Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz apparently ran an 8-pack in the second-chance event. I think it was in the quarterfinals against Mike Dechaine. That match was not streamed, at least not by AZBtv. Sanchez-Ruiz went on to win that event.
Click to expand...

THANK YOU
:clapping:
 
This World Pool Series event #1 is the second recent 8-Ball event to use a "take what you make more of" rule. The first one was the Accu-Stats MIH event a couple months ago. But this recent event had a significant new condition -- break outside the box. So let's do some comparisons.

The events used:
• CSI Invitational 8-Ball Championship, July 2014 -- template rack, break from anywhere behind the line, table open after the break​
• Accu-Stats MIH 8-Ball Invitational, Nov.2014 (final 2 days only) -- template rack, break from anywhere behind the line, table open after the break​
• Accu-stats MIH 8-Ball Invitational, Nov. 2016 -- template rack, break from anywhere behind the line, take what you make more of​
• World Pool Series Molinary Players' Championship, Jan. 2017 -- triangle rack, break from outside a 2-diamonds wide central box, take what you make more of​

The first 3 events used Diamond tables with standard pro-cut 4½" pockets. The WPS event used a Brunswick Gold Crown with 4¼" corners. But I doubt that the difficulty factor for this Brunswick was any higher than for the Diamonds (shallower shelf depth on the Brunswick, e.g.). The WPS event did use a regular triangle instead of a breaking template, and that may have had an effect on the stats. The WPS event also had several other differences in the rules/conditions, but I doubt that they caused any significant difference in the stats. The field strength for the streamed matches was high for all 4 events.

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
2014 CSI Invit. -- 71% (154 of 218)
2014 A-S MIH -- 73% (85 of 117)
2016 A-S MIH -- 73% (182 of 251)
2017 WPS #1 -- 53% (155 of 293)

Breaker won the game:
2014 CSI Invit. -- 64% (139 of 218)
2014 A-S MIH -- 61% (71 of 117)
2016 A-S MIH -- 55% (139 of 251)
2017 WPS #1 -- 48% (141 of 293)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
2014 CSI Invit. -- 54% (118 of 218)
2014 A-S MIH -- 50% (59 of 117)
2016 A-S MIH -- 41% (102 of 251)
2017 WPS #1 -- 29% (85 of 293)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
2014 CSI Invit. -- 77% (118 of 154)
2014 A-S MIH -- 69% (59 of 85)
2016 A-S MIH -- 56% (102 of 182)
2017 WPS #1 -- 55% (85 of 155)

Runouts by the player at the table following the break:
2014 CSI Invit. -- 74% (162 of 218)
2014 A-S MIH -- 68% (80 of 117)
2016 A-S MIH -- 59% (147 of 251)
2017 WPS #1 -- 54% (159 of 293)

Games ending in one inning (by B&R or on non-breaker's first visit):
2014 CSI Invit. -- 88% (192 of 218)
2014 A-S MIH -- 85% (99 of 117)
2016 A-S MIH -- 78% (195 of 251)
2017 WPS #1 -- 69% (201 of 293)

Games involving safeties:
2014 CSI Invit. -- 4% (8 of 218)
2014 A-S MIH -- 5% (5 of 117)
2016 A-S MIH -- 8% (21 of 251)
2017 WPS #1 -- 12% (36 of 293)

Average number of balls made on all breaks and on successful breaks:
2014 CSI Invit. -- 1.3, 1.6
2014 A-S MIH -- 1.3, 1.7
2016 A-S MIH -- 1.3, 1.6
2017 WPS #1 -- 0.8, 1.4

Average number of minutes per game:
2014 CSI Invit. -- 6.6 for 218 games (no shot clock)
2014 A-S MIH -- 5.4 for 117 games (45-sec. shot clock)
2016 A-S MIH -- 5.5 for 251 games (45-sec. shot clock)
2017 WPS #1 -- 7.0 for 293 games (no shot clock)

So, moving from the first two events to the third, we saw the effect of not having an open table after the break -- a reduction in the rate of run-outs from the break and in the breaker's win percentage. Then moving from the third event to the fourth, we see that breaking outside the box and using a regular triangle instead of a breaking template has a further effect in making the game more difficult -- a lower success rate on the break, reductions in B&R's and breaker wins, and more player interaction.

It looks like Darren Appleton's tweaks to the WPA rules do make the game more difficult for top pros. Once he reflects on the event's results, will Darren feel he has gone far enough? We'll see.
 
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Thanks AtLarge. That's exactly what I was looking for. I hope Darren reads this thread. If he does he'll know that his rule tweaks accomplished what he set out to accomplish.
 
I like these break rules. 29% BNR is a good percentage to make it not too easy like the 54% BNR at CSI.

Does breaking outside the box really account for a 18-20% difference from compared to CSI/MIH on successful breaks? 73% vs 53% successful breaks.
 
gxman said:
... Does breaking outside the box really account for a 18-20% difference from compared to CSI/MIH on successful breaks? 73% vs 53% successful breaks.
Click to expand...

The use of a regular triangle instead of a template may have accounted for some of the difference, but I imagine a healthy piece of it was from breaking outside the box.

Breaking from near center table in 8-Ball seems to produce more consistency and better results than breaking into the head ball from near the sides (breaking into the second ball wasn't allowed in this event).. But If the break-from-the-side rule is used a lot more, perhaps some players will find a way to make balls consistently. In this latest event, it seemed like the best results came from a full power break.
 
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In many events, the stats tend to improve as the event goes on and the guys playing the best are the ones on the stream. That certainly was the case in this event. For each measure, the first percentage is for Days 1 & 2 combined (167 games), the second is for Days 3 & 4 combined (126 games), and the third is for all 4 days combined (293 games).

• Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul): 47%, 60%, 53%

• Breaker won the game: 44%, 54%, 48%

• Break-and-run games on all breaks: 21%, 40%, 29%

• Break-and-run games on successful breaks: 44%, 66%, 55%
 
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