Tate's Evaluation
I think that Chris Tate's evaluation of the cue and documentation is pretty spot on.
The cue is a beautiful, simple WIDOW, in great shape, with no veneers, but also no stitch work.
Considering that I know of a beautifully veneered and stitch collared Gus that sold recently for $5,000, which was a very good deal but not a steal IMHO as it was otherwise plain, Chris is probably right that this cue should bring the same, with the leather wrap and all.
However, I don't think the ivory ferrules add that much, as all of my original Gus shafts have them.
The box and documentation adds maybe a grand in value for me, but I do think that it will mean more to someone else.
It's a great package.
The real question is how much will it prove to be worth to someone?
I had a really nice talk with the seller, who is selling it for a friend. He truly believes that because he found no Gus cues available, and due to the fact that he had received 70+ e-mails within an hour or two of listing it, and because of the hundreds of people watching it, that it would spark a bidding war and bring in excess of $10,000.
Now...I told him exactly WHY I did not think this would occur, as the truly knowledgeable collectors, not to mention the dealers who sell to them, all have pretty good access to Gus cues, and that they can buy a lot more cue than this cue for 10K.
Now...having said that...if you had told me that on a no reserve auction with 8 days and 20 hours left that it would already be bid up to $4,494.44 with that much time left...I woulda' just shook my head (as I just did) in disbelief.
For 2 reasons:
1. Maybe the guy is right about the $10K.
and
2. WHY ON EARTH DOES EVERYONE WANT TO DO THEMSLEVES THE DISSERVICE OF RAISING THE PRICE SO HIGH, SO EARLY AND SO UNNECESSARILY?!
I agree with the previous post about not really understanding that "TACTIC".
It defies the basic canon of auction strategy, which is to wait until the end to show your hand, and by so doing also minimize your own negative affectation on the price for yourself, by bloating it early.
Now, I can see how some people might think that by raising the price so high, so early, on something that they really want badly, that they might scare away the pretenders.
But you are actually giving more power to the pretender's "Maximum Bids", because you are activating them with your own.
Again...I just don't get it.
Or, I can see how someone might be e-mailing or talking to the seller and trying to get them to agree to a price to end the auction early, and they are bidding a large enough amount to prove their sincerity and commitment to the item.
But in doing so they are activating all those other dormant Max Bids, and simply emboldening the seller to NOT want to make a deal with them, because then the auction is playing out just perfectly AS IS.
Or...perhaps it's just a case of getting caught up in the excitement of the hunt...and an opportunity to see their name up in lights, wrapped in the momentary GLORY as the high bidder on such a magnificent item.
Of course, the glory of that high bid so early on in an auction's run, may prove to soon price that very bidder out of an item that if everyone had been a little more patient on, they might have actually had a shot at.
Either way, it is not advantageous in an auction setting...for anyone. Except the seller.
The US dollar is still pretty weak in many big markets. I'm sure that someone in Japan is just salivating at the opportunity to watch us go at one another, like grown kids on a schollyard wanting to prove that we are real players, so that we can knock one, and then another and then another of ourselves off the list of practical bidding, leaving it for those to whom 10,000 US dollars really is only like $5,000 to them.
Or Chris and I may end up being right...the bidding may level off now as people will stop testing the waters of who has already made a commitment to what maximum bid, and settle in to what the real, true market value is for a Gus Merry Widow, with a Gus leather wrap and a really nice box and documents set.
However, if the bidding does go crazy and it does surpass my wildest expectations and reaches anywhere near 10 grand, I will be happy for the seller, happy for the buyer because they obviously REALLY WANTED IT BAD, I will assume that the APOCALYPSE IS NEAR, and I will immediately consider posting and selling my much fancier Gus and its original shipping tube, in hopes of paying off the remaining 27 years of my 30 year mortgage.
THE END IS NEAR.
Cain
