ok, you got me out of retirement with this thread
OK guys, here goes.
1. Jude- I normally love playing safe and making a 70%ish run out even better. I'm just not convinced that it is possible on this table to do so. Your safety is nice and I agree that you have an edge over stripes, but I feel the same about running out. If you are a C player playing a C player I would say that you are going to win more often playing safe as your runout percentage might be closer to 50% or less, and stripes would probably be less than 10%. Playing in the finals of even an amateur tournament, however, I wouldn't want them to get back to the table. Vs your safety they simply would have too many options such as overcut the 14 slightly letting it bank out into the open and leaving the cueball on the rail by the first diamond. Now you are playing a champion in a safety battle, both with balls open and four soldiers left. I would rather just get out.
2. If you do play safe and are even contemplating putting the four near the hole, don't play it as diagrammed. Here's why: If you don't like ball in hand well enough to run out with the four as a break out, how will you like it when your opponent shoots in the four and takes an intentional foul? OOPS! Instead, shoot the 4-15 combo and pocket his ball. For one thing it takes the accidental 4 ball dropping out of the equation, but more importantly it kills a powerful soldier of his. This would be my second favorite option.
3. Personally I think that I can get out here. I like the diagrammed break out. On the IPT tables with thick nap cloth and tight pockets I may prefer the safe, but on new simonis (or a bar box!) I would consider myself a very strong favorite to get out.
PS- any safety that involves the cue ball between the 11 and the rail is unavailable, or else I too shoot the combo and run out that way instead (at pocket speed the three ball sits on the rail and I could play shape for it through the window and run out often).
What do you think Jude, can I talk you into either the 4-15 combo safe or the runout?
