Ignore Bait: Highest IQ, Many Questions, Odds makers invited...

[straightline]

From this: https://allthatsinteresting.com/marilyn-vos-savant

In 1991, a reader wrote vos Savant asking her to solve a popular mathematical question known as the Monty Hall question. The name comes from the host of the beloved game show Let’s Make A Deal which the question shares similarities with. It went like this:

“Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the other doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, ‘Do you want to pick door No. 2?’ Is it to your advantage to take the switch?”

Marilyn vos Savant wrote back to the reader through her column like it was any other regular question she had dealt with, and answered, “Yes; you should switch… The first door has a 1/3 chance of winning, but the second door has a 2/3 chance.”
Marilyns Column In Parade

Being significantly dummerer, I must argue.

If the probabilities have changed, shouldn't the new gamble be a coin flip - 50% and not 66% as per the original proposition which only allowed a 33% chance? Further, doesn't taking the new option at whatever percent double your play thereby increasing Monty's chances 100%? eek.

It's only apparent to me that being a one shot thing, all bets are off. (?)

 

[Luxury]

I would bet my 10 K versus your 1000 that I would win if I change and you don’t and I’ll give you five games on the wire in a race to 50

 

[straightline]

I would bet my 10 K versus your 1000 that I would win if I change and you don’t and I’ll give you five games on the wire in a race to 50

Lol I already passed to the guy next to me. He had 5 or 6 C...

 

[Luxury]

So it turns out you’re not so dumb after all

 

[straightline]

One can only be so dumb. I do think the Savant solution is bogus though.

 

[Luxury]

One can only be so dumb. I do think the Savant solution is bogus though.

I have a really good way of explaining it but I prefer to win money off of it

 

[straightline]

I have a really good way of explaining it but I prefer to win money off of it

So I flipped correct then.

Anybody care to ruin Luxury's action?

 

[vapoolplayer]

Switching is always the best strategy in this scenario.

 

[Luxury]

When this theory was first revealed, a lot of PHD types would have emptied out and gotten busted

 

[DDiabolico]

The Monty Hall Problem: A Statistical Illusion

The Monty Hall problem is extremely counter-intuitive because our statistical assumptions are incorrect. I explain how this happens and make sense of it.

statisticsbyjim.com

It isn't that hard to understand when explained correctly.

 

[vapoolplayer]

The easiest explanation:

You pick wrong 66% of the time.

Which means Monty has the car in one of those doors 66% of the time.

But, it says he knows where it is. Which means he never opens the car door and he has the car 66% of the time.

So, you use this knowledge to your advantage and flip the odds in your favor because he always opens a door with a goat.

 

[Luxury]

I explain it like this: if you change your pick every time, The only way you can lose is if you initially pick correctly. But you win every single time if you pick wrong initially. You literally have a 66% chance of winning if you change your pick.

 

[jay helfert]

Sorry, with two doors left it's 50-50 whether you stick with door #1 or switch to door #2. At this point there are only two doors left. Door #3 is now out of the equation and it's a new deal so to speak. She may be smart but she's not a gambler. If someone wants to lay me 6-5 we can bet on this all day long, and they get to pick which door they want. I would bust Marilyn Vos Savant at this game!

 

[Luxury]

Bet. How about 1 k? I have to get to 60 and you have to get to 50 I change every time and you never change. I’m just warning you I’m robbing here.

 

[jay helfert]

Bet. How about 1 k? I have to get to 60 and you have to get to 50 I change every time and you never change. I’m just warning you I’m robbing here.

How about we watch the TV show and see the outcome of their decision each time. Or we could go to the archives and watch a dozen or so past shows and see what happens when there are two doors left and someone keeps their original pick or changes it. Without knowing what has happened on any of thes past shows I will take 6-5 on a $100 (your 120 to my 100) for each show if someone can pull up the archive of the most recent fifteen to twenty shows. Deal or no deal? No cheating!

 

[Luxury]

Jay I’m a huge fan. Love your commentating. Love your bank game. But you are in a bad spot. I say deal.

 

[Luxury]

For the record I would bet my life for a measly 5k in a race to 50 giving five games on the wire

 

[Shannon.spronk]

I explain it like this: if you change your pick every time, The only way you can lose is if you initially pick correctly. But you win every single time if you pick wrong initially. You literally have a 66% chance of winning if you change your pick.

This is pretty much how I explain it. People that think it is 50/50 ignore the fact that the host knows exactly where the door is to begin with.

 

[Luxury]

I’ve literally only robbed two guys of 20 bucks on this but I think it’s pretty fun.

 

[DDiabolico]

Sorry, with two doors left it's 50-50 whether you stick with door #1 or switch to door #2. At this point there are only two doors left. Door #3 is now out of the equation and it's a new deal so to speak. She may be smart but she's not a gambler. If someone wants to lay me 6-5 we can bet on this all day long, and they get to pick which door they want. I would bust Marilyn Vos Savant at this game!

See my post #10.

I also thought that it's a simple 50/50 chance but after reading the easy explanation, I fully understand why it's not.