Ignore Bait: Highest IQ, Many Questions, Odds makers invited...

[David in FL]

It's not a game with repeated hands and infinite money. When Monty introduces the final condition, it becomes a game of wits at 50/50.

Odds don’t change because of the number of times some thing it’s done.

That misunderstanding is one reason people lose at money on coin flips or roulette.

They think that a pattern of past results means something on the next attempt.

One try or 1000. The odds are the same. You might outrun the odds in a short race, but in a long race the better player (the odds) is going to win every time. And if you’re given only one shot at it, you should still bet with the odds.

The old adage, the race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.

 

[vapoolplayer]

Looks like I need the 6-5 to make it close. Or maybe I need a little more like 3-2. There you go!

So, how about my $150,000 to your $100,000

1,000 hands. 2, 2, A. $150 to $100 per hand

We mix the cards. You pull one aside without looking.

I look at the other two, and flip over one. You then flip over your hand. You do *not* have the option to swap. As you are getting 3/2 on what you say is 1/1 odds.

If you have the A, you win. If not I win.

(you lose about $16,650. Anything less than 2:1 you will lose in long run)

 

[MajorMiscue]

Now let's eliminate the 3 option that we know is neither a viable choice nor a winner:

You Pick	Prize Door	Don’t Switch	Switch
1	1	Win	Lose
1	2	Lose	Win
2	1	Lose	Win
2	2	Win	Lose

Now it is obviously a 50/50 proposition with the smoke and mirrors removed.

 

[David in FL]

Here is the bogus chart from post #10:

You Pick	Prize Door	Don’t Switch	Switch
1	1	Win	Lose
1	2	Lose	Win
1	3	Lose	Win
2	1	Lose	Win
2	2	Win	Lose
2	3	Lose	Win
3	1	Lose	Win
3	2	Lose	Win
3	3	Win	Lose

Note that the third option remains as a choice and as the winner. That's a confusion factor since we aren't going to choose a known loser and it should never be listed in the Prize Door column, yet it erroneously is three times. The bogus graph shows Pick 3 as a win 2 out of three times when it shouldn't even be an option.

Their theorem only works when we accept data we know to be incorrect.

The “you pick” column refers to your initial choice…

The “prize door“ column refers to where the car is…

Neither changes regardless of what information you’re given after your initial selection.

Door three was, and always remains, an option as both a pick and a prize door…

 

[MajorMiscue]

So, how about my $150,000 to your $100,000

1,000 hands. 2, 2, A. $150 to $100 per hand

We mix the cards. You pull one aside without looking.

I look at the other two, and flip over one. You then flip over your hand. You do *not* have the option to swap. As you are getting 3/2 on what you say is 1/1 odds.

If you have the A, you win. If not I win.

(you lose about $16,650. Anything less than 2:1 you will lose in long run)

Much smoke and mirrors. Just put two cards face down, one winner one loser. I get to pick. 50/50

 

[vapoolplayer]

Much smoke and mirrors. Just put two cards face down, one winner one loser. I get to pick. 50/50

That’s not the scenario.

 

[MajorMiscue]

The “you pick” column refers to your initial choice…

The “prize door“ column refers to where the car is…

Correct except the car is never behind the door that is removed and it is never your choice. Those are distractors that have you flummoxed.

 

[vapoolplayer]

Correct except the car is never behind the door that is removed and it is never your choice. Those are distractors that have you flummoxed.

If you’re so sure, you should be begging me to bring you money with better than 1/1 on your odds.

The proposition I gave you, if you are correct, you could *never* lose in the long run. And I told you I would *never* quit.

 

[MajorMiscue]

That’s not the scenario.

It is, minus the smoke and mirrors designed to confuse.
Monte offers three choices, two bad, one good but after you choose he eliminates a bad leaving a good and a bad. Then, regardless of your first choice, you get to choose again between the good and bad. Minus the smoke it is a straight 50/50 bet.

 

[vapoolplayer]

It is, minus the smoke and mirrors designed to confuse.
Monte offers three choices, two bad, one good but after you choose he eliminates a bad leaving a good and a bad. Then, regardless of your first choice, you get to choose again between the good and bad. Minus the smoke it is a straight 50/50 bet.

Well, you let me know when you want to buy a new house or an island or whatever.

I will bring as much money as you want to get. $55 when you win. $50 when I win.

Or $150 and $100.

Tell me when. I’ll bring as much money as you want to win.

 

[David in FL]

So, how about my $150,000 to your $100,000

1,000 hands. 2, 2, A. $150 to $100 per hand

We mix the cards. You pull one aside without looking.

I look at the other two, and flip over one. You then flip over your hand. You do *not* have the option to swap. As you are getting 3/2 on what you say is 1/1 odds.

If you have the A, you win. If not I win.

(you lose about $16,650. Anything less than 2:1 you will lose in long run)

Correct except the car is never behind the door that is removed and it is never your choice. Those are distractors that have you flummoxed.

If you won’t take vapoolplayer up on the bet, how about me?

I‘ll give you the same weight for the same $’s.

I’ll even fly on down there and we can do some fishing afterwards.

 

[straightline]

Odds don’t change because of the number of times some thing it’s done.

That misunderstanding is one reason people lose at money on coin flips or roulette.

They think that a pattern of past results means something on the next attempt.

One try or 1000. The odds are the same. You might outrun the odds in a short race, but in a long race the better player (the odds) is going to win every time. And if you’re given only one shot at it, you should still bet with the odds.

The old adage, the race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.

Yes but the advice of the world's smartest person is to switch. One time offer. Granted, posed as a Let's Make A Deal event, Monty probably is trying to give stuff away but I gotta keep saying in an actual on time bet, 66% initial percent or even the 50 actual percent is not a good enough reason to change your bet. Or is it? You tell me.

 

[MajorMiscue]

Monte offers three choices, two bad, one good but after you choose he eliminates a bad leaving a good and a bad. Correct or not correct?

Then, regardless of your first choice, you get to choose again between remaining good and bad. Correct or incorrect?

There are two remaining choices win and lose and its a straight 50/50 choice. Right or wrong?

If you are right at least one of those must be wrong.

 

[vapoolplayer]

Yes but the advice of the world's smartest person is to switch. One time offer. Granted, posed as a Let's Make A Deal event, Monty probably is trying to give stuff away but I gotta keep saying in an actual on time bet, 66% initial percent or even the 50 actual percent is not a good enough reason to change your bet. Or is it? You tell me.

You should *always* swap doors in the scenario listed.

It’s never the right play to keep your door. Ever. 1 time or 800 billion times.

 

[vapoolplayer]

Monte offers three choices, two bad, one good but after you choose he eliminates a bad leaving a good and a bad. Correct or not correct?

Then, regardless of your first choice, you get to choose again between remaining good and bad. Correct or incorrect?

There are two remaining choices win and lose and its a straight 50/50 choice. Right or wrong?

If you are right at least one of those must be wrong.

Again, if you keep your choice, you are 33%.

If you swap, you are 66%.

You are *always* wrong not to swap.

If Monte didn’t get to look at the cards, that changes the entire scenario.

 

[MajorMiscue]

You should *always* swap doors in the scenario listed.

It’s never the right play to keep your door. Ever. 1 time or 800 billion times.

I already showed why the swap theory was bogus.

 

[David in FL]

Monte offers three choices, two bad, one good but after you choose he eliminates a bad leaving a good and a bad. Correct or not correct?

Then, regardless of your first choice, you get to choose again between remaining good and bad. Correct or incorrect?

There are two remaining choices win and lose and its a straight 50/50 choice. Right or wrong?

If you are right at least one of those must be wrong.

Except that in this case you only “have a choice” if you exercise that choice and choose differently. Which is why it’s to your advantage to do so.

The reveal didn’t actually change anything. That’s your red herring…

 

[Jimmorrison]

Wow, fun thread. After it got repetitive, I stopped reading and jumped to the end. If we were all in the same room, some here would be many thousands down. Adamantly sticking to there guns, but losing all their money. It would be a different conversation by now. Oh well, that’s the internet

 

[MajorMiscue]

Again, if you keep your choice, you are 33%.

If you swap, you are 66%.

You are *always* wrong not to swap.

If Monte didn’t get to look at the cards, that changes the entire scenario.

Just because you say "again" does not make it so. Which of my statements was incorrect?

 

[Patrick Johnson]

The odds don’t change - Monty’s two doors are twice as likely to have the prize as your one door, both before and after he shows one of them.

Sorry, Jay, but I’ll take your bet too.

pj
chgo