Ignore Bait: Highest IQ, Many Questions, Odds makers invited...

3 guys are at a hotel and order a pizza. Front desk says it will be $30, so each guy puts in $10. When it's delivered the pizza delivery guy says it is only $25, so he gives each guy back $1 and keeps $2 for a tip. If each guy got a dollar back, they only spent $9 each.
  • $9 x 3 = $27
  • Tip = $2
  • $27 + $2 = $29
What happened to the other dollar?
 
MajorMiscue said:
@David in FL answer the questions please:

Yes or no, he will leave a goat and a car every time? Y or N.

Yes or no, you always get to choose to stick with your initial choice or switch to the other. Y or N.

Yes or no, in the end there are always two choices one good, one bad and you get to choose. Y or N.
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I already answered those questions, Hell, you even responded to me.




Here you go again…

David in FL said:
All yes.

What you’re missing is that one of the choices is twice as likely to be the better one. You‘re mistakingly believing that just because there are two choices, the odds are 50/50. They aren’t.
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David in FL said:
I already answered those questions, Hell, you even responded to me.




Here you go again…
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Three simple yes or no questions, you failed to answer:

Yes or no, he will leave a goat and a car every time? Y or N.

Yes or no, you always get to choose to stick with your initial choice or switch to the other. Y or N.

Yes or no, in the end there are always two choices one good, one bad and you get to choose. Y or N.
Click to expand...
Why is it so difficult?
 
David in FL said:
All yes.

What you’re missing is that one of the choices is twice as likely to be the better one. You‘re mistakingly believing that just because there are two choices, the odds are 50/50. They aren’t.
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I still think 66% your favor only holds if you initially get to pick 2 and be done. (I'm sure the actual numbers in that scenario have to reflect 2 out of 3 of one out of three but what else is clear here right?)
 
MajorMiscue said:
What you're missing is that it doesn't matter. Monte only gets to choose to throw away a goat, whether he is looking at two goats or a goat and a car. what's left is a goat and a car, every time.
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Suppose I have a bag with 100 balls in it. 99 of the balls are yellow, and one of the balls is blue. You reach in the bag and randomly pull out one ball, without looking at it. I then look in the bag and on purpose pull out 98 yellow balls. There are now two balls left, one in the bag and one in your hand.

Do you think there's a 50% chance that the ball in your hand is the blue ball?
 
PoolBum said:
Suppose I have a bag with 100 balls in it. 99 of the balls are yellow, and one of the balls is blue. You reach in the bag and randomly pull out one ball, without looking at it. I then look in the bag and on purpose pull out 98 yellow balls. There are now two balls left, one in the bag and one in your hand.

Do you think there's a 50% chance that the ball in your hand is the blue ball?
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Remember the TV show “deal or no deal”

Same premise when the contestant would get down to the last briefcase and be given a choice to take it or swap it out for the remaining case.
 
PoolBum said:
Suppose I have a bag with 100 balls in it. 99 of the balls are yellow, and one of the balls is blue. You reach in the bag and randomly pull out one ball, without looking at it. I then look in the bag and on purpose pull out 98 yellow balls. There are now two balls left, one in the bag and one in your hand.

Do you think there's a 50% chance that the ball in your hand is the blue ball?
Click to expand...
This is way stacked though.
 
SmoothStroke said:
3 guys are at a hotel and order a pizza. Front desk says it will be $30, so each guy puts in $10. When it's delivered the pizza delivery guy says it is only $25, so he gives each guy back $1 and keeps $2 for a tip. If each guy got a dollar back, they only spent $9 each.
  • $9 x 3 = $27
  • Tip = $2
  • $27 + $2 = $29
What happened to the other dollar?
Click to expand...
And what did happen to the dollar?
 
MajorMiscue said:
Just because you say "again" does not make it so. Which of my statements was incorrect?
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All of it.

In the initial guess, you will pick a loser 2/3 of the time, correct?

Every time Monte will remove a loser.

Ipso facto, 2/3 of the time, the door Monte doesn't select had the winner.

Easy. There is no fifty-fifty anywhere in the scenario.
 
MajorMiscue said:
So the odds are 50/50.
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No. Because like the pizza question above you’re getting wrapped up around irrelevant questions.

None of them matter.





Read this post below if you haven’t already. Maybe that will clarify it by exaggerating the numbers…

PoolBum said:
Suppose I have a bag with 100 balls in it. 99 of the balls are yellow, and one of the balls is blue. You reach in the bag and randomly pull out one ball, without looking at it. I then look in the bag and on purpose pull out 98 yellow balls. There are now two balls left, one in the bag and one in your hand.

Do you think there's a 50% chance that the ball in your hand is the blue ball?
Click to expand...
 
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