Ignore Bait: Highest IQ, Many Questions, Odds makers invited...

jay helfert said:
Sorry, with two doors left it's 50-50 whether you stick with door #1 or switch to door #2. At this point there are only two doors left. Door #3 is now out of the equation and it's a new deal so to speak. She may be smart but she's not a gambler. If someone wants to lay me 6-5 we can bet on this all day long, and they get to pick which door they want. I would bust Marilyn Vos Savant at this game!
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Switching gives you a edge. A good math professor can give a proof very easily.

Best
Fatboy
 
straightline said:
By the numbers sure. But in an actual bet, No way Monty is trying to feed you the car. It's a battle of wits at as near as I can figure, 50/50.
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He was trying to feed the car. They were making money based on how much they could charge for advertising. The advertising was based on viewership. The viewership rose because of big prizes.
 
vapoolplayer said:
If he’s clueless and opens the goat…..

It’s now 50/50 if you have the car or he does.

His knowledge of what’s behind the doors is the “trick” part of the question.
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Well you gotta presume he has to know what's where but doesn't seem to have any relevance to the numbers.
 
PoolBum said:
For those having a hard time grasping why you should switch doors, imagine that instead of 3 doors there are 1,000 doors, with 999 goats and one car. The host knows where the car is, and asks you to pick a door. After you pick a door he opens up all but one of the remaining doors, revealing 998 goats. There are two doors left, the one you initially chose, and the one he didn't open.

Should you stay with your original choice or switch to the door he didn't open?
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This is the best explanation of this. Because your original choice was 1 in 1000, the odds that you were correct with the first choice are still 1 in 1000, that hasn't changed, but the new choice is 999 in 1000.

It REQUIRES Monty to know where the car is. He has eliminated 998 wrong possibilities. making the new choice 999/1000.

Jaden
p.s. the confusion arises because knowing that your choice COULD be the car also, makes people think that since the 998 other goats were eliminated and your initial choice WASN'T, then the original choice now becomes ALSO a 999/1000 probability. The issue with that though is that Monty KNOWS whether or not yours is the car.
 
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straightline said:
Well you gotta presume he has to know what's where but doesn't seem to have any relevance to the numbers.
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Not sure what else to tell you.

It’s so relevant it literally doubles your chances of picking right.

He knows where the car is *AND* he can’t open that door.
 
Fatboy said:
Switching gives you a edge. A good math professor can give a proof very easily.

Best
Fatboy
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Ok, I'm going on like a broken record here but for people like you, if you pick wrong, you just move on maybe take heart in it was a good bet (as if that ever comes up) . That's the only way the odds have any relevance to this scenario. For the one time only event it is, 66% is worth diddly.
 
straightline said:
Ok, I'm going on like a broken record here but for people like you, if you pick wrong, you just move on maybe take heart in it was a good bet (as if that ever comes up) . That's the only way the odds have any relevance to this scenario. For the one time only event it is, 66% is worth diddly.
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Math doesn’t lie, people lie
 
vapoolplayer said:
Not sure what else to tell you.

It’s so relevant it literally doubles your chances of picking right.

He knows where the car is *AND* he can’t open that door.
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Right. On LMAD he's supposedly trying to give you the car. In Joe's Back Alley and Casino however, he wants whatever you put down.
 
straightline said:
Ok, I'm going on like a broken record here but for people like you, if you pick wrong, you just move on maybe take heart in it was a good bet (as if that ever comes up) . That's the only way the odds have any relevance to this scenario. For the one time only event it is, 66% is worth diddly.
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Sure. I'll give you a choice between tossing a ball into a dumpster or a milk crate from two hundred feet. Pays the same. Which do you choose? Neither is guaranteed, is your logic is that it doesn't matter.
 
straightline said:
Ok, I'm going on like a broken record here but for people like you, if you pick wrong, you just move on maybe take heart in it was a good bet (as if that ever comes up) . That's the only way the odds have any relevance to this scenario. For the one time only event it is, 66% is worth diddly.
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This logic is why casinos are still in business.
 
vapoolplayer said:
This logic is why casinos are still in business.
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Casinos absolutely. They have the turnover. By the same token, if you play the percentages long enough in a legit casino, don't you run into "the longer you play the better their chances"?

And back to one of my other points, by switching, you double your stay at the table. Think Monty likes it much?
 
SmoothStroke said:
3 guys are at a hotel and order a pizza. Front desk says it will be $30, so each guy puts in $10. When it's delivered the pizza delivery guy says it is only $25, so he gives each guy back $1 and keeps $2 for a tip. If each guy got a dollar back, they only spent $9 each.
  • $9 x 3 = $27
  • Tip = $2
  • $27 + $2 = $29
What happened to the other dollar?
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Tricky question. The answer is you're not trying to get to $30 your trying to end up at $25. So it's $27 - $2 gets you to $25 for the pizza.
 
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