It's not how often you miss...Low level 9 ball

[Straightpool_99]

So, having watched some low level 9 ball players lately, I've come to the conclusion that at that level, 9 ball it's not how often you miss, but at what time, that usually decides the winner. Now, if you're a run-out player this doesn't apply to you. The players I'm talking about are about the skill level it takes to beat the 5 ball ghost playing 9 ball. They don't play safes particularly well (some play half decent safes at times, but usually not). In these matches, whenever someone misses with 3-4 balls or less left, that player will likely lose, while if they miss with 6 or 7 left, even with an open shot, there is a really big chance they won't, in fact they may actually be a favourite to win! This nonewithstanding, they all try to run out, and the results are basically coinflips.

In practice you should almost always go for the run-out, but in tournaments that is a big no-no. Pocket as many balls as you need and play safe (nothing fancy or above your skill level), you'll be much more successful that way. Even if you get ball in hand with 9 balls on the table, you shouldn't go for a runout (unless they are all hangers), if you can barely beat the 5 ball ghost. I don't understand how this is not blindingly obvious to these players? I watch them fail time and time again, blaming everything: The equipment, kicks, lapses of concentration etc, etc, but the real culprit is their poor decision making based on lack of understanding of their skill level. Even if their safeties are piss-poor, leaving a player at this level with 6 balls left and a longish shot, unless the balls are all hanging, they're probably not running out. Instead, they are playing for the runout, then getting out of line with 3-4 balls left, at which time it's very difficult to play a safe.

I was watching a friend of mine play a tournament and pretty much tearing my hair out, as he did this thing over and over again. He was not the lone ranger either. In this tournament they might as well have flipped coins. Maybe the winners were in fact leaving their opponent these 6-7 ball tables on purpose, but it sure didn't look like it to me. Running 6 balls with ball in hand or a great first shot is possible to these players, but from a random off-angle position it's highly unlikely. That reminds me, if you are such a player, forget going for perfect total-eclipse safeties unless getting it is a dead cinch. Focus on leaving the OBJECT ball safe, and the cueball should be secondary to that, if you get the snooker, that's great, but don't leave the object ball over the hole.

End rant.

 

[bazkook]

In my experience the lower ranked players who you refer to are either clueless to safeties and strategy because: 1) they have been taught to always go for the runout instead of play smart or 2) their ego gets the best of them and they try to shoot above their actual skill level. Usually the former happens when a player first starts playing competitive pool and the latter happens once they start picking up the game and get a little confident in their ball making ability.
If your friend is willing to accept help then I suggest you work with him and show when to go for the runout and when to duck. You could play your friend heads up and when a situation arises for a learning opportunity do not hesitate to stop him before he makes the same mistakes over again.

 

[DallasHopps]

I'm in your target audience, and I'll give you my perspective.

When I'm playing a runout player, I'm aware of the cost of my mistakes and I tend to make better decisions because of it. I'll still lose because of poor implementation, but the strategy was sound.

Playing someone similar in skill to myself, I make dumb decisions because, at a subconscious level, I know I won't be punished as much for errors. Add to this that, as you alluded to, we are capable of running out- our plans don't (and IMO shouldn't) assume failure. I don't get grossly out of line most times, but the cumulative effects end up making me take a low percentage shot or safety. Consistency fails us at our level of play.

The short answer is that many of us know exactly what you're saying, and why you're saying it. We probably see it in our peers. We just can't execute our plans to change the outcome.

 

[BRussell]

Good thread. I see it in 8-ball a lot. In games between good league players, whoever starts shooting balls first typically loses, because they can only get out maybe 1/4 of the time with 13-15 balls on the table, but they can get out or play an effective safe 3/4 of the time that their opponent only has a ball or two left.

I think social norms are part of the issue. It's just not considered socially acceptable to play a safety and lengthen out the game unless it's really necessary. You should shoot until you miss, and only play safe if you don't have a shot. Not saying I agree with that, but it seems to be the norm.

 

[9Ballz]

I'm in your target audience, and I'll give you my perspective.

When I'm playing a runout player, I'm aware of the cost of my mistakes and I tend to make better decisions because of it. I'll still lose because of poor implementation, but the strategy was sound.

Playing someone similar in skill to myself, I make dumb decisions because, at a subconscious level, I know I won't be punished as much for errors. Add to this that, as you alluded to, we are capable of running out- our plans don't (and IMO shouldn't) assume failure. I don't get grossly out of line most times, but the cumulative effects end up making me take a low percentage shot or safety. Consistency fails us at our level of play.

The short answer is that many of us know exactly what you're saying, and why you're saying it. We probably see it in our peers. We just can't execute our plans to change the outcome.

Well said. I will totally agree with you. My game in a nutshell.

 

[9andout]

Great thread!
I'm breaking out of ur target audience. Lol
Legitimately hanging with players that used to stomp me. Long way to go but I'm accelerating.
Many great points. You speak the truth.

 

[michael4]

I've come to the conclusion that at that level, 9 ball it's not how often you miss, but at what time, that usually decides the winner.

I don't understand how this is not blindingly obvious to these players?

what you're forgetting is that these players (me too) dont know WHEN they will miss, they are able to make good shots quite often, but they are very inconsistent. In their mind every shot they take, they think they can make (and they can make them 75% of the time)....


If you're 75% likely to make each ball, from the 1 to the 9, when do you play safe?

You're 100% correct, a late miss is much more costly than an early miss, but they cant control that.....

(good post)

 

[bdorman]

Looking at my game, I'd say you've got it about right.

Except that it's usually an inexcusable shot-miss that ends my inning. My safety play is pretty good and I'm often able to get BIH from better players (whether I can run-out from there is hit-or-miss, but I'm always looking for the safety opportunity).

 

[bazkook]

I'm in your target audience, and I'll give you my perspective.

When I'm playing a runout player, I'm aware of the cost of my mistakes and I tend to make better decisions because of it. I'll still lose because of poor implementation, but the strategy was sound.

Playing someone similar in skill to myself, I make dumb decisions because, at a subconscious level, I know I won't be punished as much for errors. Add to this that, as you alluded to, we are capable of running out- our plans don't (and IMO shouldn't) assume failure. I don't get grossly out of line most times, but the cumulative effects end up making me take a low percentage shot or safety. Consistency fails us at our level of play.

The short answer is that many of us know exactly what you're saying, and why you're saying it. We probably see it in our peers. We just can't execute our plans to change the outcome.

You should play everyone the same. That is how you develop consistency. The saying about playing the table not the player comes to mind.

 

[hang-the-9]

Exactly right there, I can certainly agree with watching someone mess up at the end in 9 ball LOL. My son does this all the time to allow people in the match or to beat him. He had a chance to get to final 16 at Nationals, but gave up missed easy 7 ball, hung a 9 ball, just simple mistakes, all with 1-2-3-4 balls on the table for the other player to clean up easily.

I've heard several commentators refer to this as "making the other guy look good". You run 5-6-7-8 balls, leave a simple table for the other guy to win with.

 

[KRJ]

what you're forgetting is that these players (me too) dont know WHEN they will miss, they are able to make good shots quite often, but they are very inconsistent. In their mind every shot they take, they think they can make (and they can make them 75% of the time)....


If you're 75% likely to make each ball, from the 1 to the 9, when do you play safe?

You're 100% correct, a late miss is much more costly than an early miss, but they cant control that.....

(good post)

I'd say that you should look at the leave you expect to get on the next shot. Yes, there might not be many difficult shots (using the 75%) rational, but there certainly will be some difficult leaves, thus, eventually, that will crush that lower level player. What are the chances you can spin it 3 rails, using a little left, and hitting it firm ?? That's where they get in trouble. Must folks cannot "draw" as well as they think, nor are they as accurate. It's a lot easier to follow or stop then draw, and that might be a good time to come up with Plan B.

The same goes for 8-ball, and I see plenty of players who play at "4" speed, and they have a decent shot at a break out on their only trouble ball.... most go for it. The good "4's" play safe, hope to get bih and get a higher percentage shot at the break out on the next shot. Eventually, when they get better, and develop more control of the cb, they will "go for it", but for now, it's about winning the game.

So, learning "when" is just as important as "when not to" imho.

And yes, there are those who will play safe with 3 balls left on the table, because they seriously lack confidence, or just don't really know which way to go (paralysis by over analysis) and they will lose more games that they win with that strategy.

 

[Masayoshi]

Low level players should be focusing on getting better rather than winning. Nobody ever got great at pool by being complacent with the (lack of) run out abilities of a B player.

 

[Cameron Smith]

Low level players should be focusing on getting better rather than winning. Nobody ever got great at pool by being complacent with the (lack of) run out abilities of a B player.

I'm a bit on the fence about this. On the one hand, I agree that if you don't keep pushing the boundaries of your abilities you won't improve much. If a player always plays to their current skill level, then they aren't implementing new habits. But on the other hand, your goal is to win when playing tournaments. For me, when I'm playing snooker tournaments I know I am terrible with the rest.

So when situations come up that I know I am supposed to play with running side for example, I still play it in a way that I can expect the most success. It's in solo practice or match practice I'll try the tricky stuff that will likely end in failure (for now!).

So I would suggest a bit of a balance so long as you are working on your weaknesses. I have improved a lot with the rest over the years and have implemented new strategies as I progress, but always try to play shots with highest percentage of success for me.

 

[PoolBum]

So, having watched some low level 9 ball players lately, I've come to the conclusion that at that level, 9 ball it's not how often you miss, but at what time, that usually decides the winner.

This is one of the first rules listed in the Hustler's Bible.

 

[KRJ]

Low level players should be focusing on getting better rather than winning. Nobody ever got great at pool by being complacent with the (lack of) run out abilities of a B player.

Yes, and when a shot comes up in a match that you decided to play safe on, either a difficult shot or a break out shot, then go home and practice that shot and see what it takes to be successful. Shoot it till you can do it 10 times in a row.

But in the middle of competition, confidence is everything, and if you don't think you can pull it off, you probably won't

 

[Cuebaldness]

My thoughts on the subject

Hey guys. This is my first post. Currently I'd say I fall into the group mentioned in this thread. I've been playing pool with determination for about a year and a half. I started out playing an A player. We'd play 15 or 20 games of nine ball, winner breaks loser racks. He'd always get tired before I would and if I got a game or two out of the 20 I'd drive home happy. Recently I've gotten to the hill with him on several occasions when he isn't playing his best.

I quickly learned that 2 way shots were my key to victory. Selling out was fatal. Playing him now I'll take a lot more risks, just to get used to the pressure and to try and push my boundaries farther and farther. I consider my strategy and knowledge to be beyond most players with my experience, I just need to put the time in on the table to develop consistency.

I believe Michael said it correctly. It's hard to determine which 75% chance to back away from some times. 75% is a decent chance, but if you have those odds nine times in a row chances are you'll lose at least once.

Another thing to consider is that at this level we can be decent at potting the balls but our speed control isn't necessarily where it needs to be to play the safeties. That's why I consider a good safety to be one of the toughest parts of the game: potting you need to send the ball on the right line for the pocket, with a lot of safeties it needs to stop in the right place as well.

So my thought process is "why give my opponent a decent chance at making a pot when I have a decent chance to make one myself?" I often choose to die on my sword rather than in the chair when these percentages are similar. Thus concludes my first novel

 

[Masayoshi]

Yes, and when a shot comes up in a match that you decided to play safe on, either a difficult shot or a break out shot, then go home and practice that shot and see what it takes to be successful. Shoot it till you can do it 10 times in a row.

But in the middle of competition, confidence is everything, and if you don't think you can pull it off, you probably won't

In that situation shoot the shot you think a high level player would shoot. Making the shot will win you the game, missing the shot will provide you feedback on whether or not you need to change your shot selection, improve your stroke, etc. Not taking the shot, especially if it came with a favorable outcome due to the lack of abilities of your opponent, will just lead to complacency and mediocrity.

 

[Ak147]

In my opinion shot selection criteria should remain same irrespective of skill level.

Playing safety requires good ball positioning skills which lower skilled player lacks, so it may not be an advantage to go for safety when you have equal opportunity to pot and get shape on next ball.

 

[Jimbojim]

Well, without wanting to sound arrogant, I think I have outgrown this phase as a player and while I do notice this in many players, I don't agree with everything you have said.

I think they should always play the right shot no matter how many balls they have made before. Its by playing the right shots that will make them better players. They might lose now but it will pay off in the long run. Don't play safe when the shot is to go offensive and vice versa.

 

[philly]

For me it depends on who I am playing and what the stakes involved are. If I am playing my son and nothing is at stake I go for it. If I am gambling or am in a tournament with a very skilled field where a miss means I probably won't get back to the table my rule of thumb in nine ball is if it is a very difficult shot I will play safe. If I can make the shot but have no way of getting shape I will play safe rather than pot an extra ball and leave my opponent one less ball to run.