It's not how often you miss...Low level 9 ball

[trob]

I agree.. I've always said 9 ball is about advanced position play and running out. 8 ball is finding the path of lest resistance and patience. If you try the early run out more times then not you lose.

Good thread. I see it in 8-ball a lot. In games between good league players, whoever starts shooting balls first typically loses, because they can only get out maybe 1/4 of the time with 13-15 balls on the table, but they can get out or play an effective safe 3/4 of the time that their opponent only has a ball or two left.

I think social norms are part of the issue. It's just not considered socially acceptable to play a safety and lengthen out the game unless it's really necessary. You should shoot until you miss, and only play safe if you don't have a shot. Not saying I agree with that, but it seems to be the norm.

 

[slide13]

Hey guys. This is my first post. Currently I'd say I fall into the group mentioned in this thread. I've been playing pool with determination for about a year and a half. I started out playing an A player. We'd play 15 or 20 games of nine ball, winner breaks loser racks. He'd always get tired before I would and if I got a game or two out of the 20 I'd drive home happy. Recently I've gotten to the hill with him on several occasions when he isn't playing his best.

I quickly learned that 2 way shots were my key to victory. Selling out was fatal. Playing him now I'll take a lot more risks, just to get used to the pressure and to try and push my boundaries farther and farther. I consider my strategy and knowledge to be beyond most players with my experience, I just need to put the time in on the table to develop consistency.

I believe Michael said it correctly. It's hard to determine which 75% chance to back away from some times. 75% is a decent chance, but if you have those odds nine times in a row chances are you'll lose at least once.

Another thing to consider is that at this level we can be decent at potting the balls but our speed control isn't necessarily where it needs to be to play the safeties. That's why I consider a good safety to be one of the toughest parts of the game: potting you need to send the ball on the right line for the pocket, with a lot of safeties it needs to stop in the right place as well.

So my thought process is "why give my opponent a decent chance at making a pot when I have a decent chance to make one myself?" I often choose to die on my sword rather than in the chair when these percentages are similar. Thus concludes my first novel

^ most substantive, coherent, and cogent first post ever. Nicely said!

I agree, I know there are times when a safety is a good move but I also know my CB control isn't as good as it needs to be to play some lockup safes unless they're just simple to execute. So often it comes down to me taking the shot instead of the safe because I dont like my odds of locking my opponent up, and if they're a strong player even if they don't have a shot to make the ball they'll have a much higher likelihood of locking me up in return and then if I fail to get out and they get BIH then I've really sold out the game.

 

[KRJ]

In that situation shoot the shot you think a high level player would shoot. Making the shot will win you the game, missing the shot will provide you feedback on whether or not you need to change your shot selection, improve your stroke, etc. Not taking the shot, especially if it came with a favorable outcome due to the lack of abilities of your opponent, will just lead to complacency and mediocrity.

Sure. So, basically, you should take every difficult shot that anyone can make, no matter what your skill level, just to prove to yourself that you actually can't make it, and that you were right to be worried about it

Sorry, there are shots Earl would go for in a game, that I'm just not going to attempt it. I'll lose that battle, cause I'm trying to win the war. :thumbup:

Again, we are assuming you are playing in a league or tourney, or for money. With something on the line, you need to play the percentages for the win. I didn't invent safeties, I just watch World Champions use them to win

 

[Cuebaldness]

Thanks Slide! I've been lurking the forum for a while now so I think I've learned the basic etiquette haha

 

[Tronpocket]

what you're forgetting is that these players (me too) dont know WHEN they will miss, they are able to make good shots quite often, but they are very inconsistent. In their mind every shot they take, they think they can make (and they can make them 75% of the time)....


If you're 75% likely to make each ball, from the 1 to the 9, when do you play safe?

You're 100% correct, a late miss is much more costly than an early miss, but they cant control that.....

(good post)

Exactly what i was about to write.
With the .."ive made this shot before...(once:wink...i can make it again" mentality ...it tends to cloud realistic shot evaluation and make/safe percentages based on there level of play and the actual game situation. ( really.. all players are prone to this ).