Kuwait Tournament?

BeiberLvr said:
It's about the probabilities (math) of Player A beating Player B, not whether or not Player A is better than Player B.

Think of a hand chart in poker. At the very top is AA (Wu), and he goes up against a hand like T9s (Albin), he's a 78/22 favorite. Not 100%. So he can lose to him and he did. But unlike poker, the probabilities in Fargo are not static. Depending on the score, the ratings could change in a few different ways.

Let me know if I need to page Corvette in here to explain variance.
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aha so it doesnt show the better player, but it shows who has more chance to win atm according to fargo........hmmm find the mistake
so shawn putnam has a higher probabilty (favourite) against oscar today and efren against mika or bergmann over albin...... wth i like my odds:grin-square:
 
pmac666 said:
aha so it doesnt show the better player, but it shows who has more chance to win atm according to fargo........hmmm find the mistake
so shawn putnam has a higher probabilty (favourite) against oscar today and efren against mika or bergmann over albin...... wth i like my odds:grin-square:
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Yeah This is pure BS-Who had the highest Fago rate in the US Open?
 
Nostroke said:
Yeah This is pure BS-Who had the highest Fago rate in the US Open?
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noone says the whole list is BS and i really appreciate the work some do on that but there are some clearly wrong spots in it, not even questionable (and there are surely a few others to dicuss too :p ).....as said, theres much more to a match then the endscore!
btw who was the highest and 2nd highest ranked player before kuwait? variance my friend....
 
Ko on the hill 10-9 but breaks DRY.

I think Shaw will run out. Ko better hope Shaw dry breaks, or else, he's done for.
 
BeiberLvr said:
It's about the probabilities (math) of Player A beating Player B, not whether or not Player A is better than Player B.

Think of a hand chart in poker. At the very top is AA (Wu), and he goes up against a hand like T9s (Albin), he's a 78/22 favorite. Not 100%. So he can lose to him and he did. But unlike poker, the probabilities in Fargo are not static. Depending on the score, the ratings could change in a few different ways.

Let me know if I need to page Corvette in here to explain variance.
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The key word is probabilities ,, since your dealing in humans not numbers probabilities change from player to player ,,
Let's say we have 5 exact Fargo rated player playing Shane one of the is MD
The numbers would suggest they all have same chance of winning however unless you have been living under a rock you know for what ever reason MD has been a thorn in Shane's side for yrs and is closer to even money than the big underdog the other 4 players are
Now Corvette would jump in and say well in a race to a 1k played over 36 days in the Desert Shane is going to out run the variances ,,well maybe
However if you play enough short races the variances equal out


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one stroke said:
LOL glad he's cracked the top 30 ,, Mike what I'd like to know is ,, exclude all Albins scores except WPA. World events and compare those to his other events the reason is obvious this kid seems to rise in these events , this would be like like a life time 290 hitter hitting 340 in the playoffs or several other examples of players rising to the occasion I could dig up ,.
This is why I said long ago the info you have if read like a racing form has a pertinent value but I'm sure you know that

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I can do that --with a little effort...

Here are the events we have for him. So you or whoever is interested needs to decide which events to include. The more events you choose the more meaningful the answer will be.

If we look at Albin over the last two matches (11-10 win against Wu and 6-11 loss against J. L. Chang), then we see Albin won 17 and lost 22 games against these opponents. So for these two matches he is performing 38 points below the average of his opponents--close to what is expected. These are monster opponents--#s 1 and 4 in the world.
 

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Wow
After breaking awesome with many B&R for most of match, Ko breaks dry while leading 10-9. Shaw runs out . then breaks and wins final rack after long safety battle
Shaw is first into Final awaiting winner of other semifinal :grin:
 
FINAL -Battle of Js

FINAL 730pm Local time (1230pm Eastern)
Jayson Shaw v Jung Lin Chang

This is a rematch of the awesome Winners side Final (Hot Seat) of 2016 US Open:D
 
After Shaw broke and looked at the three I was like damn. Shaw missed the 1, I didn't understand Ko's shot in the 1 but he still fired in the 2 and broke out the 3 but left a tough cut, Ko played a perfect safety, Shaw played a great kick, Ko had to play another safety but Shaw could see the 3, Shaw played a great safety, Ko jumped and played a safety leaving Shaw rail to rail, Shaw attempts the bank and misses but gets safe, Ko kicks and plays safe, Shaw can see the edge and plays safe back, Ko kicks and hits it but leaves the out. What a hill hill game.


Now I want to see a Chang Shaw rematch. Shaw is building up quite the rivalry with the Taiwan boys.
 
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