Lagging: Just a tournament thing?

[arsenius]

Part of the problem with flipping a coin is that it's not uncommon to flip badly. If you don't flip correctly, you will be wobbling the coin, rather than spinning it. This introduces a bias where it is more common for the starting side to come up. I can't find the original article I read, but this one has a little bit on it. Check out this article.

In experiments, the researchers were surprised to find that it's difficult to tell from watching a coin whether it has flipped. A coin toss typically takes just half a second, with the circumference of the coin whizzing around at 3 meters per second. What's more, the coin's spin makes it wobble, often creating the illusion that the coin has flipped.

 

[BVal]

Brady...I lag ALL the time, because it is a skill shot, and since I practice it, I'm going to win the lag 80+% of the time. Most people do not practice a lag...a big mistake imo.

Scott Lee
www.poolknowledge.com

Hey Scott,

I am not saying don't lag or anything like that. I was just pointing out his reasoning that I thought was funny. I like lagging and I do practice it. As a matter of fact I have won every lag against this same guy everytime we have played (3 times).

BVal

 

[BRKNRUN]

Oh, alright. I'll tell ya what the problem is anyway.

In betting on the exact probabilities, there are 3 potential outcomes and 2 are unfavorable.

1. The coins fall 50/50 so you win.

2. The distribution goes less than the odds and you lose.

3. The distribution goes greater than the odds and you lose.

But, wait...there's more.

Even if the distribution is perfect, you can't get to 100 tosses without completing 99 and at 99 even if the distribution is falling perfectly the "score" will be H45-T44 (assuming the player is calling heads).

So, on the last toss, the coin doesn't care what the last 99 outcomes were. All it knows is that there is a head and a tail and the odds are 50/50 on the last toss.

Therefore, the odds can NEVER be better than even money even if the number of coins tossed is 1 million because it will ALWAYS come down to that last coin toss.

In any event, since there are 3 possible outcomes...each of which carries a 1 in 2 probability,/...even money... your odds of success are 1 in 3.

But wait...it gets worse...MUCH worse.

The standard deviation for 100 coin tosses is +/-5. So, out of 11 outcomes, only 1 wins the bet

But it gets worse. 1 standard deviation is expected only about 68% of the time so now you're talking about roughly a 15-1 shot of ending up with a 50/50 distribution.

So, you can lay 10-1 odds all day against that outcome....I THINK!

It has been a LONG time since I've studied binominal probabilities!

But try it with 20 tosses which is a bet you can easily make in the pool hall. The standard deviation would be +/-1 so there are 3 likely outcomes...only 1 of which is a winner for the mark...but even then, he only has a 68% chance that the deviation will be as small as +/-1.

In any event you can lay 2-1 odds all night and win over time.

(-:

Holy Cow!!! You have way too much knowledge stuck in that brain of yours!!!


I always call "Heads" because the tails side is heavier and will end up on the bottom more often.......LOL...at least that is my perception and I am sticking to it.....

Therefore...The "Tails Never Fails" theory is now debunct...

 

[BRKNRUN]

I buy this. Good point.

Thanks...I found some more research that supports my theory...


I was listening to two guys negotiating a set for a set amount $...The one guy was not real sure he wanted the game for that much....(He seemed to want to be lower...even though I thought he was the favorite)

The guy that wanted the game at the higher amount kept calling "Heads" trying to get the other guy to pull out and flip a coin....At the end of every negotiation sentence he kept calling "Heads"

I really think the coin flip is used frequently as a tactic to get the game "on" quicker.....I would also add...If you are a road player...If you freeze the CB on the end rail to win the lag...Wouldn't that kind of expose you speed a bit???? or at least throw up a red flag to your opponent? (It would to me)

 

[PoolBum]

In addition, consider a similar bet. What odds would require if I were to bet you that you cannot flip one side exactly 50 times out of 100 chances?

The probabilities are 1 in 2^100 so, according to the odds there is an extreme liklihood of a 50/50 split...BUT...

The odds are certainly not likely that after 100 tosses it would be 50-50. The only time your opponent is even money on this prop is if it's 50-49. Then it's a 50-50 prop that after 100 flips there are 50 heads and 50 tails. Anything other than 50-49 after 99 tosses and you're the favorite, big time. For example, if it's 50 heads and 48 tails after 98 flips, then you'll win 75% of the time. If it's 50-47, then you'll win nearly 90% of the time.