Mike Page, FargoRate, Greg Hogue, and the Mosconi Cup

[SEB]

Soooo....Greg Hogue (nicknamed Spanky) joined Doggin' it last night and there was a lot to unpack. First off, Molina really has settled into his role as an interviewer and voice of the professional pool scene.

Hogue was a wildman, amped with energy and charisma. The show starts off with Hogue talking about being a 30 year meth user and has now been clean for about 3 years. Hogue was definitely going overboard in many ways but came off as passionate and likable. The interesting part for me was when Hogue actually turned off the wild persona and talked seriously about the game. You can tell there is a lot of substance and character behind his wild persona. He is a certified PBIA instructor, a mechanics expert, and a tireless driller. Behind the wild facade and decades of drug use is someone that takes his craft incredibly seriously. He put in 38 hours of practice this week and 55 last week. He feels whether he makes Mosconi or not, he's going places. And who can argue with him??

I have to say, I was intrigued by the whole thing. A sub 700 FargoRated, middle-aged, ex-addict from Oklahoma came 1 match away from making the Mosconi Cup on his own merit. He currently is in 4th place in the standings and is the only American to win a Matchroom event other than SVB...and from what I understand from the interview is that he only played 2 ranking events! (Sandcastle and the US Open!) The man seems to have a nose for the finish line and makes one hell of a case for himself which brought me to so many other questions.

Here is where my question lies:

Hogue goes on a mini rant about how there must be something wrong with FargoRate because he is currently a 699 yet he's beaten all these top pros. Now I, on the other hand, am a firm believer in FargoRate...It's made me a believer over the years and I have found it to be astoundingly accurate. The case against Greg Hogue is that he can win everything he wants....we're not putting a sub 700 FargoRated person on the team...it just ain't happening. A player of that level just simply isn't good enough.

UNLESS...Spanky's theory on FargoRate has some merit...With over 6000 games in the system, is his Fargorate simply lagging behind his current speed?

I thought it would be an interesting question for Mike Page from FargoRate. Greg Hogue won the Sandcastle 9 ball event back in early June to start this cinderella run. I'm hoping Mike can chime in here and do a player review on Hogue from June 1st to now. If Spanky is playing at a higher level than his current Fargo reflects then the case for him making the team only strengthens. BUT...If his FargoRate since June is consistent with his current rating, then we can all thank Greg for an incredible 2022 run and wish him luck for a 2023 bid.

 

[penguin]

Now I, on the other hand, am a firm believer in FargoRate...It's made me a believer over the years and I have found it to be astoundingly accurate. The case against Greg Hogue is that he can win everything he wants....we're not putting a sub 700 FargoRated person on the team...it just ain't happening. A player of that level just simply isn't good enough.

Astoundingly accurate? In my local area alone there are 100+ players who keep their Fargo 50-100 points under where it should be.

 

[Scrunge19]

Astoundingly accurate? In my local area alone there are 100+ players who keep their Fargo 50-100 points under where it should be.

That is a character flaw, not a system one. It doesn’t matter what system is put in place, there will always be a subset of the population who will knowingly cheat or circumvent that system.

 

[garczar]

I've known Greg(aka 'Spanky' in these parts) since he was about 15. Took him on his first trip out of town in '91 to the Huebler Cup. Has a heart of gold and loves the game. He has totally re-built his life and i hope all goes his way.

 

[skip100]

That is a character flaw, not a system one. It doesn’t matter what system is put in place, there will always be a subset of the population who will knowingly cheat or circumvent that system.

True, but this is not impossible to counteract. One possibility would be to create a "Vegas rating" that only includes the results from major tournaments. Another option that would be something akin to the golf handicap, which is calculated using the best 8 out of the player's last 20 scores. This would change the interpretation of the rating, though, from the player's typical performance to their potential.

I wouldn't be surprised if they indeed have a "Vegas rating" already calculated so they can be on the lookout for sandbaggers during BCA nationals.

 

[Sheldon]

Some really great interviews coming out of this podcast.

 

[telinoz]

Soooo....Greg Hogue (nicknamed Spanky) joined Doggin' it last night and there was a lot to unpack. First off, Molina really has settled into his role as an interviewer and voice of the professional pool scene.

Hogue was a wildman, amped with energy and charisma. The show starts off with Hogue talking about being a 30 year meth user and has now been clean for about 3 years. Hogue was definitely going overboard in many ways but came off as passionate and likable. The interesting part for me was when Hogue actually turned off the wild persona and talked seriously about the game. You can tell there is a lot of substance and character behind his wild persona. He is a certified PBIA instructor, a mechanics expert, and a tireless driller. Behind the wild facade and decades of drug use is someone that takes his craft incredibly seriously. He put in 38 hours of practice this week and 55 last week. He feels whether he makes Mosconi or not, he's going places. And who can argue with him??

I have to say, I was intrigued by the whole thing. A sub 700 FargoRated, middle-aged, ex-addict from Oklahoma came 1 match away from making the Mosconi Cup on his own merit. He currently is in 4th place in the standings and is the only American to win a Matchroom event other than SVB...and from what I understand from the interview is that he only played 2 ranking events! (Sandcastle and the US Open!) The man seems to have a nose for the finish line and makes one hell of a case for himself which brought me to so many other questions.

Here is where my question lies:

Hogue goes on a mini rant about how there must be something wrong with FargoRate because he is currently a 699 yet he's beaten all these top pros. Now I, on the other hand, am a firm believer in FargoRate...It's made me a believer over the years and I have found it to be astoundingly accurate. The case against Greg Hogue is that he can win everything he wants....we're not putting a sub 700 FargoRated person on the team...it just ain't happening. A player of that level just simply isn't good enough.

UNLESS...Spanky's theory on FargoRate has some merit...With over 6000 games in the system, is his Fargorate simply lagging behind his current speed?

I thought it would be an interesting question for Mike Page from FargoRate. Greg Hogue won the Sandcastle 9 ball event back in early June to start this cinderella run. I'm hoping Mike can chime in here and do a player review on Hogue from June 1st to now. If Spanky is playing at a higher level than his current Fargo reflects then the case for him making the team only strengthens. BUT...If his FargoRate since June is consistent with his current rating, then we can all thank Greg for an incredible 2022 run and wish him luck for a 2023 bid.

If Mike ends up not replying, there is another way to check out current speed.
Digital Pool.
You could, or he could, enter all the tournaments he played with opponents FargoRate into a private tournament as a way for Digital Pool to generate the Performance data.
It shows if you played to FargoRate Par, or above it.. Essentially, what speed.

Mike helped out the Digital Pool team to get that calculation working, so it is as good as FargoRate in-house working out what speed someone has been playing at.

Sure it will take time to work it out by yourself, or his time.
But it will yield the answers you seek.

 

[penguin]

That is a character flaw, not a system one. It doesn’t matter what system is put in place, there will always be a subset of the population who will knowingly cheat or circumvent that system.

There is a system flaw in Fargo as well. Very easy to do if you know what it is.

Not sure if it is poor design by accident or poor design on purpose.

 

[hang-the-9]

There is a system flaw in Fargo as well. Very easy to do if you know what it is.

Not sure if it is poor design by accident or poor design on purpose.

There is not much to Fargo, you win or you lose vs a player, and that is the rating. The design flaw is with the cheaters. Probably the biggest thing that people tend to forget is that you need a long time of many games in the system to average out the best rating. Very few players would end up with a good representation of their skill over just a few tournaments. If there were more honest pool players that just played like they could every match, every rating system would be great. They are all only as good as the data they see, if you feed it lies, the result will be lies. Unfortunately, from my experience, I don't think there are more than 50% of teams or players out there in leagues that just play and let the rating be whatever it is. There are team discussions just about every league day that I am a witness to as to who should win and how many games they should try to win and who should loose for the night to keep the handicap low.

 

[couldnthinkof01]

Manipulation of a handicap for league pool. Jesus, people really love thier trophy's.

 

[mikepage]

True, but this is not impossible to counteract. One possibility would be to create a "Vegas rating" that only includes the results from major tournaments. Another option that would be something akin to the golf handicap, which is calculated using the best 8 out of the player's last 20 scores. This would change the interpretation of the rating, though, from the player's typical performance to their potential.

I wouldn't be surprised if they indeed have a "Vegas rating" already calculated so they can be on the lookout for sandbaggers during BCA nationals.

What we get when we include only IMPORTANT matches or only RECENT matches or only matches on a certain SIZE TABLE or only a particular GAME and so forth are just simply less reliable ratings. Of course we've done those things all many times. The precision we lose (i.e., more slop in the ratings) is larger than the anticipated effect people are looking for.

 

[Coos Cues]

There are scores of 720 ish american players that won't be nor should they be on the Mosconi cup.

The reason I use 720 is just giving Greg the benefit of the doubt that he may be under rated. Is he underrated by more than 20 points? Not likely.

 

[mikepage]

Soooo....Greg Hogue (nicknamed Spanky) joined Doggin' it last night and there was a lot to unpack. First off, Molina really has settled into his role as an interviewer and voice of the professional pool scene.

Hogue was a wildman, amped with energy and charisma. The show starts off with Hogue talking about being a 30 year meth user and has now been clean for about 3 years. Hogue was definitely going overboard in many ways but came off as passionate and likable. The interesting part for me was when Hogue actually turned off the wild persona and talked seriously about the game. You can tell there is a lot of substance and character behind his wild persona. He is a certified PBIA instructor, a mechanics expert, and a tireless driller. Behind the wild facade and decades of drug use is someone that takes his craft incredibly seriously. He put in 38 hours of practice this week and 55 last week. He feels whether he makes Mosconi or not, he's going places. And who can argue with him??

I have to say, I was intrigued by the whole thing. A sub 700 FargoRated, middle-aged, ex-addict from Oklahoma came 1 match away from making the Mosconi Cup on his own merit. He currently is in 4th place in the standings and is the only American to win a Matchroom event other than SVB...and from what I understand from the interview is that he only played 2 ranking events! (Sandcastle and the US Open!) The man seems to have a nose for the finish line and makes one hell of a case for himself which brought me to so many other questions.

Here is where my question lies:

Hogue goes on a mini rant about how there must be something wrong with FargoRate because he is currently a 699 yet he's beaten all these top pros. Now I, on the other hand, am a firm believer in FargoRate...It's made me a believer over the years and I have found it to be astoundingly accurate. The case against Greg Hogue is that he can win everything he wants....we're not putting a sub 700 FargoRated person on the team...it just ain't happening. A player of that level just simply isn't good enough.

UNLESS...Spanky's theory on FargoRate has some merit...With over 6000 games in the system, is his Fargorate simply lagging behind his current speed?

I thought it would be an interesting question for Mike Page from FargoRate. Greg Hogue won the Sandcastle 9 ball event back in early June to start this cinderella run. I'm hoping Mike can chime in here and do a player review on Hogue from June 1st to now. If Spanky is playing at a higher level than his current Fargo reflects then the case for him making the team only strengthens. BUT...If his FargoRate since June is consistent with his current rating, then we can all thank Greg for an incredible 2022 run and wish him luck for a 2023 bid.

There are Fargo Ratings out there for everybody in the mix. We're inclined to leave it at that at this point.

 

[SEB]

There are Fargo Ratings out there for everybody in the mix. We're inclined to leave it at that at this point.

Then make all games entered into the system public.

Not free…public.

 

[gcmortal]

Manipulation of a handicap for league pool. Jesus, people really love their trophys

The free trip to Vegas crushes the tin cup.

 

[couldnthinkof01]

The free trip to Vegas crushes the tin cup.

I won one of those a few times. Even if you win, after splitting it up and expenses, it's enough for a nice steak dinner and a souvenir shirt.
Makes more sense to just go and have fun if that's the case. Fk the pool.
If you are there just to compete, no need to manipulate.

 

[Sheldon]

In my opinion, a big part of the problem with "manipulation" of ratings is the leagues themselves. Is the league structured to encourage good play and improvement? Or is it structured in such a way as to make it more profitable to keep your handicaps low?
My local BCA 8 ball league pays money for every ball you make, even if you lose the game. 10 points for a win, up to 7 if you lose. End of season, divide total money by total points, and everyone gets paid the same per point. No trophies, no trips, no BS.

 

[skip100]

What we get when we include only IMPORTANT matches or only RECENT matches or only matches on a certain SIZE TABLE or only a particular GAME and so forth are just simply less reliable ratings. Of course we've done those things all many times. The precision we lose (i.e., more slop in the ratings) is larger than the anticipated effect people are looking for.

When looked at in the aggregate, this is unsurprising. More games means more data and more data means a better model. The vast majority of people do not sandbag. The vast majority of people do not have drastic changes in their skill level over time. Thus limiting the number of games is only going to introduce "slop" as you call it.

However, this is only true on average. The way the system is set up now is not responsive to changes in skill level, with a huge delay effect and old games that take years to stop having substantial influence on a player's rating, and is not responsive to intentional sandbagging in minor events. My point was simply that there are ways to counteract these effects through a different model with different pros and cons.

Even in the contained FargoRate context, having a "suspicious" flag for internal use before Vegas that examines past Vegas performance vs. everything else is not some kind of crazy "slop" scheme.

 

[BasementDweller]

Sandbagging with FargoRate only works with one subset of players -- those that are really really bad at math.

 

[skip100]

Greg Hogue is a perfect example of the problems with FargoRate when it comes to changes in skill level. I didn't listen to the podcast, but it sounds like he may have played thousands of games under the influence of meth. Now he's off meth and playing better. It will take years for his rating to reflect anything like his true skill level.

Hogue finished 17th at the US Open alongside 800-rated players like Wu Kun Lin, Oi, Feijen, Ko Pin Yi, and so on. Who are you going to believe, his 699 rating or your lying eyes?

Now is this an extreme case? Sure. But it's emblematic of the (reasonable) choice made to prioritize stability over responsiveness. There are pros and cons to every model and it's not nitpicky to suss them out.