NEW NATIONAL RATING SYTEM - SVB vs. You

I love your enthusiasm JB. I actually kind of feel like you do too. I mean if I couldn't get to 30 that would really suck. It just seems like the numbers don't work out.

Crunch the numbers for us. How do you get to 30?

I play my game and win my share of them which will be an average of 3 games out of every 10-12 or more.

I can run out, I can play safe, I can kick and bank. Not with as high a percentage as Shane but I am not helpless which is the point of getting a spot.

Based on the times I have played pros I know that I can almost always get at least 4 games in any race to 10.
 
I play my game and win my share of them which will be an average of 3 games out of every 10-12 or more.

I can run out, I can play safe, I can kick and bank. Not with as high a percentage as Shane but I am not helpless which is the point of getting a spot.

Based on the times I have played pros I know that I can almost always get at least 4 games in any race to 10.

Wish in one hand..

SVB runs almost half of those from the break. You won't win half of the rest. No offense meant, just going by his level of play over even an A player.
 
Dennis Orcullo got to 81, there were bets before the final day that he would not get to 70, and while he did not shoot as good as he normally does he still shot one hell of alot better then anyone posting here.

First off if you are going to gamble on this SVB is going to know the number you are going to, if Marsman is backing him for $10,000 and SVB is giving someone 70 on the wire going to 100 then SVB is not going to "give" away too many games.

Another thing you have to realize is that if/when Shane misses he normally does so early, it is a break with bad shape on the 1 where he has to push, or early in a rack trying to deal with a tied up 3 ball. Against a guy like Dennis O missing those balls early tended to end up with SVB losing those games because Dennis can run out from an open look at the 1 or the 3 ball with extreme regularity. Most amature players cannot, even WITH an open shot on the 1-ball they cannot run out a rack of 10 ball with any sort of regularity. Shane is going to get back to ALOT more tables then he did with Dennis if he is playing a amature, and Shane will almost never miss deep into a rack.

Also, when it comes to the safety game SVB is going to completely dominate any amature player in the world. If he needs to play safe deep in a rack the chances are he will get back to that rack with a good shot after the amature played some absurd flyer.

Also, Dennis broke bad in his match with SVB, but his break with STILL alot better then almost all amatures out there. The 10-ball break is NOT easy to both make a ball AND get shape on the 1 ball in, most amatures have no chance of stringing racks, so while SVB will put packages on whoever he is playing, on the rare time the amature manages to win a game they are likely giving back control of the table in the very next game.

30 games? There is no chance. Look at the TRUE amatures who play in pro events when they run into elite level players, they get beat 11-0, 11-1. Reasonable players who are known but not top pros tend to get evicerated in their matches against top pros, guys like Lee Van Corteza completely blow low level shortstop players out of the water in your average large event match, 11-0, 11-2. against guys who are actually relatively decent BCA master level players. Every top pro in these events is the same, they only start seeing closer matches when they start playing each other.

No offence JB but there is no chance you get to 30, $1000 is not enough to get SVB to bother to do it, I would play him for $1000 getting a 70 game spot in a race to 100 as well and it has nothing to do with my thinking I can win, that is simply worth the $1000 to play him in a set like that, money well spent. You add a 0 to that and make it $10,000 and I am pretty sure you can get played getting 70 games going to 100, and you will realize getting to 85 games is tough enough, 100 is a pipe dream.

At my absolute best in a long set like that playing 10-ball I think I would have maybe got in the 15-20 range, and at that time I was playing good enough to win a 9-ball match against a pro player getting 2 on the wire in a race to 9 9-3 for $100. The thing is that was 9-ball and I was breaking well and keeping control of the table, 10-ball against SVB is a whole different beast.

I understand all your speculations. However I need to remind you about speculating.

Shane was made a 10 game underdog by several people who gamble heavily and we see how he did against Orcullo.

The fact is that if you could predict exactly how things would turn out between any two players you could be very rich, but you can't and so you aren't.

So all the armchair analysis doesn't mean anything once the balls are broken and the game is underway.

If a game ever does come off I will bet on myself and be more than happy to take your action based on the "no chance" comment with the odds that you feel are appropriate in a "no chance" situation. I don't take offense but I will allow you to bet you on your speculative powers. For example a "no chance" situation for me would be no problem for me to bet 100-1 on the money or 1000-1 on the money. Think about what no chance is worth for you and let me know IF such a game ever comes off, not now, it's pointless to go there until there is an actual game to bet on.
 
Wish in one hand..

SVB runs almost half of those from the break. You won't win half of the rest. No offense meant, just going by his level of play over even an A player.

That's a good point. Guess we would have to see.
 
This website is amazing. http://www.pool-trax.net/Games/MatchDetails.aspx?Mid=1541

I think I would be willing to PAY them to track my stats over the course of several matches. What a great way to see into different aspects of the game by the numbers.

Based on the numbers here I might agree with Eric and say that a player of my caliber has not much shot at getting to 30. Please don't tell Eric I agreed with him on anything.

But I still think that when two players get in the box then it's not just a numbers game.
 
With the exception of legitimate pro-speed players like Donnie Mills and a couple others who visit this site, I don't expect anyone else here to get past 10-12 racks.

There is one major assumption here...

-- That a player like SVB actually keep top level competitive focus and desire as if he was hill-hill at the US Open or something, despite playing a player several levels weaker and with a massive spot.


I've been around pool enough in the last 20 years. I've seen hundreds of semi-pro to pro level players. Countless others who could run 6-packs, beat the ghost often and all that good stuff. Every pool room has one, some have more. IT DOESN'T MEAN A THING.

One would think, it's the same table, same balls right? Shouldn't the skills just translate to a match against SVB all the same? No. Let's assume there's no psychological matter like problems with confidence in playing someone like SVB. Or the distraction of actually being in a match with someone you might idolize as a pool player. Remove that from the equation.

They are still not as good as him. And, while the table is the same, the balls the same and yeah, so and so can run 2, 3, or 5 racks...they are not just playing a table. You are playing an opponent. You do not get the same leaves, rolls, opportunities, safes and whatnot playing an A level player vs. say SVB.

The smallest difference, such as a player who can make a ball on the break more consistently by even a small percentage more translates to huge advantages on the table, which translates to big differences in games won and final score. The same is true in a top level safety and kicking game. Little things add up and lead to control of the table, which leads to games won and big differences in score.


It's very simple. If you coulda, you woulda. There's a lot of players out there who can't. Not because they don't want to, but because they can't. If they could, they would.


As I said, there is a sea of players out there who can run racks and play strong. But when they go up against a SVB...all of a sudden, all that run out power and awesome play recedes. It is not just a table and balls.


All the above said, if SVB plays full force. Not letting up anywhere, not screwing around, because he might not respect your game - if he plays aggressive but smart with full intention of winning and doing so by the largest possible margin - I do not expect anyone in this thread to get past 10 games. They should be happy and jump for joy getting 5. Yes, it is that bad. Yes, there is THAT much of a gap between them and a player like SVB. No, just because it's 100 racks doesn't mean mistakes or opportunities will be plentiful enough. They will still be rare.

They might even be more rare. Because unlike playing another champion of his speed, there will be less need to take high pressure chances to run out against a weaker player. Playing Alex or Ralph, SVB might go for the brutal out where some danger in missing is present. Because handing over the table might be worse. Because there are consequences and a real threat there at the rack level. Remember, they can kick, play safe, jump and all of that at world-class level. It's all about playing the percentages.

Due to the weakness in the kicking and safety game, where the gap in skill is largest between a A player and a Pro - the Pro can take full advantage of this. With less need to take risks, there will be less opportunities to get to the table because SVB isn't going to miss as many balls because he doesn't need to shoot them.

Look at it from their perspective. He can try some tough shot, risk missing and giving you a chance, which is some chance at getting out. Or, play safe and risk you kicking and returning safe or kicking and making the ball. Those percentages are vastly lower for the non-Pro, thus for him, it's higher percentage to put you in that position. Making the ball is tough and low percentage even for the Pros. Kicking and returning a quality safe, doing so with some regularity or consistency is the realm of Pros. Even if you luck a few, or do so with full intention, he can return a kick safe right back. We see Pros go back and forth several turns. The A level or semi-pro collapses in this area. They can't hang with the big dogs. It's the same reason why the women players are not as good as the men. The break, and the safety / kicking game. Yes, men are still better position play and shotmaking and all that. But the larger gap is in the break and safety/kicking. It's that area that thousands of A players across the country struggle with and cannot transition to Pro level.


By virtue of the bet in the spirit of competition - they would have to play in a manner that would deny their opponent as many games as possible. Given that, I don't think anyone gets past 10. Pros excluded of course.


I agree with just about everything Celtic said in his post. Celtic gets it, because he has seen what I've seen. I've also watched semi-pros get pummeled by standard average touring pros (not even elite pros). Super duper shortstops losing 11-1 or 11-0. Exactly right. These are guys that put up 6 packs at times in their pool rooms, barely winning a rack against top pros.


30 games is fantasy.
 
With the exception of legitimate pro-speed players like Donnie Mills and a couple others who visit this site, I don't expect anyone else here to get past 10-12 racks.

There is one major assumption here...

-- That a player like SVB actually keep top level competitive focus and desire as if he was hill-hill at the US Open or something, despite playing a player several levels weaker and with a massive spot.


I've been around pool enough in the last 20 years. I've seen hundreds of semi-pro to pro level players. Countless others who could run 6-packs, beat the ghost often and all that good stuff. Every pool room has one, some have more. IT DOESN'T MEAN A THING.

One would think, it's the same table, same balls right? Shouldn't the skills just translate to a match against SVB all the same? No. Let's assume there's no psychological matter like problems with confidence in playing someone like SVB. Or the distraction of actually being in a match with someone you might idolize as a pool player. Remove that from the equation.

They are still not as good as him. And, while the table is the same, the balls the same and yeah, so and so can run 2, 3, or 5 racks...they are not just playing a table. You are playing an opponent. You do not get the same leaves, rolls, opportunities, safes and whatnot playing an A level player vs. say SVB.

The smallest difference, such as a player who can make a ball on the break more consistently by even a small percentage more translates to huge advantages on the table, which translates to big differences in games won and final score. The same is true in a top level safety and kicking game. Little things add up and lead to control of the table, which leads to games won and big differences in score.


It's very simple. If you coulda, you woulda. There's a lot of players out there who can't. Not because they don't want to, but because they can't. If they could, they would.


As I said, there is a sea of players out there who can run racks and play strong. But when they go up against a SVB...all of a sudden, all that run out power and awesome play recedes. It is not just a table and balls.


All the above said, if SVB plays full force. Not letting up anywhere, not screwing around, because he might not respect your game - if he plays aggressive but smart with full intention of winning and doing so by the largest possible margin - I do not expect anyone in this thread to get past 10 games. They should be happy and jump for joy getting 5. Yes, it is that bad. Yes, there is THAT much of a gap between them and a player like SVB. No, just because it's 100 racks doesn't mean mistakes or opportunities will be plentiful enough. They will still be rare.

They might even be more rare. Because unlike playing another champion of his speed, there will be less need to take high pressure chances to run out against a weaker player. Playing Alex or Ralph, SVB might go for the brutal out where some danger in missing is present. Because handing over the table might be worse. Because there are consequences and a real threat there at the rack level. Remember, they can kick, play safe, jump and all of that at world-class level. It's all about playing the percentages.

Due to the weakness in the kicking and safety game, where the gap in skill is largest between a A player and a Pro - the Pro can take full advantage of this. With less need to take risks, there will be less opportunities to get to the table because SVB isn't going to miss as many balls because he doesn't need to shoot them.

Look at it from their perspective. He can try some tough shot, risk missing and giving you a chance, which is some chance at getting out. Or, play safe and risk you kicking and returning safe or kicking and making the ball. Those percentages are vastly lower for the non-Pro, thus for him, it's higher percentage to put you in that position. Making the ball is tough and low percentage even for the Pros. Kicking and returning a quality safe, doing so with some regularity or consistency is the realm of Pros. Even if you luck a few, or do so with full intention, he can return a kick safe right back. We see Pros go back and forth several turns. The A level or semi-pro collapses in this area. They can't hang with the big dogs. It's the same reason why the women players are not as good as the men. The break, and the safety / kicking game. Yes, men are still better position play and shotmaking and all that. But the larger gap is in the break and safety/kicking. It's that area that thousands of A players across the country struggle with and cannot transition to Pro level.


By virtue of the bet in the spirit of competition - they would have to play in a manner that would deny their opponent as many games as possible. Given that, I don't think anyone gets past 10. Pros excluded of course.


I agree with just about everything Celtic said in his post. Celtic gets it, because he has seen what I've seen. I've also watched semi-pros get pummeled by standard average touring pros (not even elite pros). Super duper shortstops losing 11-1 or 11-0. Exactly right. These are guys that put up 6 packs at times in their pool rooms, barely winning a rack against top pros.


30 games is fantasy.

ok i believe you and will play Shane for 20k getting a 90 game spot. i can post any time. Shane if you are reading this and agree with this man let him back you PLEASE.
 
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